RADIO
Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.
Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.
The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.
If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!
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Daniel Berger (125-1 FanDuel)
While Berger’s finish last week at the Cognizant Classic was disappointing on the surface, there were some positives to take away from it. He finished 5th in the field in strokes gained approach for the week. That marked the second time in his last four starts he hit his irons extremely well. He led the field on approach at the WM Phoenix Open earlier in February.
Mishits matter.
Hear more from Daniel Berger on his PING equipment and the keys to his game in our latest podcast episode: https://t.co/mNweZychos pic.twitter.com/vf2UKZjNwG
— PING GOLF (@PingTour) March 3, 2026
Bay Hill is a longer course by the numbers, but accurate drivers of the golf ball have actually faired quite well here. Resell Henley won the event last year with Collin Morikawa finishing second. Henley and Brendon Todd finished top six at this event two seasons ago. The rough presents a huge challenge this week and players who are hitting out of the fairway have a big advantage.
Berger profiles as an accuracy over distance golfer. He finished 25th last season in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour. In 2024, Berger was 5th on tour in driving accuracy. He has gained on the field in driving accuracy each of his last five starts.
If Berger can keep the ball in the fairway this week and hits his irons the way he has been recently, I could see him getting into the mix over the weekend. He is going to have the huge advantage of not finding as much trouble as many others will this week. The 32-year-old will need to finally find something with the putter if he wants to contend this week but from a ball striking perspective, he’s in better form than the finishes would indicate.
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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
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Ryan Fox (140-1 DraftKings)
Ryan Fox is off to a great start in 2026. Through three events he has finished T24, T24 and T7. More important than just finishing positions, Fox has gained strokes in all four major statistical categories in each of his three PGA Tour starts this year. Players will need a complete game this week at Bay Hill and Fox is checking boxes across the board.
Ryan Fox just got announced on the first tee at Pebble Beach as the 2025 Seminole Pro-Member champion.
— Josh Carpenter (@JoshACarpenter) February 13, 2026
One of the reasons I liked Fox two weeks ago at Riviera was his mid-to-long iron play. He was fourth on tour last season on approach from 150-175 yards. That was a key distance at The Genesis Invitational, and it will be again this week at Bay Hill. Fox gained 0.6 strokes on average per round on approach at Riviera and I would expect him to gain again this week from similar distances.
My one concern about Fox this week would be driving accuracy. While Fox has been good statistically off the tee to begin 2026, he has gotten away with a lack of accuracy due to course layout. That won’t fly this week at Bay Hill. If Fox cannot keep it in the fairway he will struggle greatly.
Fox has played this event one time in his career, finishing T14 in 2023. A win this week is asking a lot of Fox, but he is very intriguing from a finishing position standpoint. He is currently +690 to finish top 10 on DraftKings.
Chris Kirk (185-1 DraftKings)
Chris Kirk is another player I would consider more in a finishing position capacity. The results haven’t been there in 2026 as he has missed four cuts in five starts. That said, the underlying stats are actually not that bad.
He’s hitting his irons extremely well at the moment. He has not lost strokes on approach sine the Open Championship last year, gaining in nine straight starts. It’s not even marginal, he’s gained over a stroke on the field on approach in four of five starts in 2026. At Pebble Beach he gained over four strokes on approach.
Kirk has made 10 cuts in 13 starts at this event in his career. He has five top 15 finishes, including a 5th place finish in 2022. Kirk has also won the Honda Classic in his career so he is no stranger to having success in Florida.
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