Matt Miller's 2026 The American Express PGA Longshot Bets

January 20, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 American Express. PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board that are low risk, high reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Matt McCarty (110-1 BetMGM)

I was able to get Matt McCarty at 125-1 on FanDuel when the books opened yesterday but he is still available at triple digits in a few places, which I believe is a great price. McCarty won his third career PGA Tour start at the Black Desert Championship in October of 2024. The event was won at -23, a similar birdie fest type of event that we will see this week at the AMEX. McCarty also has a proven track record as a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, winning three times in 2024.

To win an event like The American Express, players are going to have make a ton of birdies. Jon Rahm infamously referred to the event as a putting contest, I will leave out some of the colorful language that he included in the actual quote. This style event sets up perfectly for McCarty, who finished the 2025 season 17^th on tour in strokes gained putting. The 28-year-old is not only a consistent putter but has also shown the ability to spike on the greens.  Five times in the past calendar year he gained over 4.5 strokes putting, four of them gaining 7.1 strokes or better against the field.

Despite not winning in 2025, McCarty finished the season with 10 top 25 finishes, three of them inside the top 10. He has shown the ability to compete with PGA Tour level fields, particularly in birdie fest style events. He finished 31^st on tour in total birdies last year, and has shown his ability to go extremely low, shooting an 11-under par 60 in the final round of the Baycurrent Classic in October.

Emiliano Grillo (160-1 DraftKings)

Grillo turned in a disappointing performance last week at the Sony Open, but I do like that he at least got reps in. He lost three strokes putting, which is something that he will obviously need to correct if he wishes to win this week’s event. However, Grillo has made great strides as a putter overall. He has improved his putting every season since 2020 and finished 33^rd on tour last year in strokes gained putting.

Over the last 50 rounds, Grillo ranks 5^th in the field in fairways gained. He also checks out well in some key proximity ranges. The Argentinian ranks 5^th in the field in proximity from 125-150 yards and 24^th in the field from 100-125 yards. In an event that requires a lot of wedge play and putting, Grillo seems to be a pretty good fit.

Grillo hasn’t played this event particularly well in his career, making just two cuts in five starts. That said, I am willing to take a chance on him at this price. Grillo has two PGA Tour wins in his career, which checks one of the key boxes I look for in this article. When betting a longshot to win an event, they have to actually be able to win an event!

Cam Davis (400-1 FanDuel)

Full disclosure, when betting on a guy at 400-1, there aren’t going to be a ton of selling points on recent form that work in your favor. There’s certainly a valid reason my finger got tired when scrolling to find Cam Davis’s name on the odds board. Davis is losing strokes in every major statistical category over the last five, 10 and 20 tournaments.

Still, I think 400-1 is a crazy number for Davis. He’s won twice on the PGA Tour and has also won the Australian Open. The 30-year-old, at least at one point, possessed a good bit of talent. To spin zone a little further, Davis isn’t the type of player who requires being in-form to win an event. Prior to his win at the Rocket Mortgage in 2024, Davis had lost strokes on approach in four straight events and lost strokes putting in three straight starts.

Davis has had six career starts at The American Express, finishing inside the top 30 four times. In 2021, he had a legitimate chance to win on Sunday, ultimately finishing 3^rd. For someone this deep on the odds list, I think there’s enough there to warrant a click.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

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