Nick Mariano's 2023 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

March 24, 2023

2023 fantasy baseball tiered starting pitcher rankings and analysis for 5x5 roto mixed leagues, featuring ranks from RotoBaller's rankings expert Nick Mariano.

I hope you've enjoyed the March Madness of preparing for the fantasy baseball season! That's what that phrase references, right? We here at RotoBaller are here to help with all kinds of content to help you win, and with that in mind, my fantasy baseball rankings series heads to the mound. And in case you missed any earlier pieces, you can see the rest of the positional rankings articles here:

• Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Saves+Holds Relief Pitcher Rankings

Starting pitcher is deep and we've talked about most of the top arms backward and forward throughout the preseason. So instead, I'm going to list my top 150 in the table and talk more about the fringe and deeper names that have risen to relevance later in the offseason.

Beyond the top 150, I'll also list some key rookies at the end for those who like a zesty NA stash. Remember the tiers are more important than one spot ahead of another. Now, let's dive into the tiered table and analysis below.

• BvP matchups data (Batter vs. Pitcher)
• PvB matchups data (Pitcher vs. Batter)
• Who should I start? Fantasy baseball comparisons
• Who should I pickup? Fantasy baseball comparisons
• Fantasy baseball trade analyzer
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• Fantasy baseball closer depth charts

Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Roto Leagues

Starting Pitcher Recent Riser Analysis

Hunter Brown is currently dealing with back soreness but that shouldn’t stop “JV Jr.” from stepping into Houston’s No. 5 slot. With a delivery modeled after the ace, Brown boasts a powerful fastball, sharp slider, and devastating curve that yielded 134 strikeouts in 106 Triple-A innings last year. The 2.55 ERA/1.08 WHIP weren’t bad either!

We then got 20 ⅓ hybrid innings in Houston, where we allowed just two runs (1.98 FIP) with a 68% groundball rate and a 22/7 K/BB ratio. How they’ll manage him if Houston’s pitchers are all at full health is another story, but that’s hardly a given and we’re targeting talent and short-term opportunity here.

David Peterson looks to have the edge over Tylor Megill for the Mets’ No. 5 rotation spot following the news that Jose Quintana has a lesion on his rib. He’s likely out until at least July, which gives Peterson a chance to build on last year’s momentum.

The 27-year-old squeezed in 105 ⅔ IP, posting a 3.83 ERA (3.64 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA) with a hefty 27.8% strikeout rate. I could do without the double-digit walk rate (10.6% last year) but a groundball rate near 50%, the whiffs, the Mets being a winning club, and the pitcher-friendly park makes him a fun target at the end of your draft.

David Peterson looked really damn good yesterday.

4 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, BB, 5 K, 41% Whiff, 32% CSW

Spring: 8 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 K

With Quintana out, Peterson (or Megill) has a chance to grab that 5th spot and provide value at ADP.#FantasyBaseball #LGM pic.twitter.com/obsznkRDYn

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) March 15, 2023

Hayden Wesneski and his plus slider are once again ready to torment MLB hitters in 2023. Kyle Hendricks is still recovering from a July 2022 capsular tear in his shoulder, so Wesneski gets a chance. The 25-year-old flashed with 33 big-league innings in ‘22, posting a 2.18 ERA/0.94 WHIP backed by a little luck (.244 BABIP) and a little attacking of the zone (5.3% BB rate, 62.9% first-strike rate).

Drey Jameson is battling with Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry for Arizona’s final rotation spot. He’d looked brilliant through three scoreless spring appearances but has given up eight runs in his last two. Still, I can’t speak to what he’s experimenting with and his only four MLB starts thus far were either scoreless outings or quality starts. The 95.2% strand rate helps, but he’s also good! His fastball and slider are the primary weapons, but his curve and changeup are plenty serviceable. Don’t lose sight of Brandon Pfaadt either!

Brayan Bello finally got to the mound this spring on Sunday, striking out three across two perfect frames. The BABIP gods were particularly cruel to Bello’s rookie campaign but this provides profit margins to be scooped up in ‘23. That .404 BABIP helped inflate his ERA to 4.71 (1.78 WHIP) despite a 2.94 FIP. He’ll need to hone his command, but his track record of plus whiffs, grounders, and mitigating home runs in the minors is promising indeed.

Brayan Bello finishes his first spring outing with a strikeout.

Dominant. 6 up and 6 down. 3 K. 0 BB. 0 Hits Allowed.

Sat 95-97. pic.twitter.com/xcEdeNHm0X

— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) March 19, 2023

Clarke Schmidt made headlines with five perfect innings against the Pirates last week, which feeds the draft helium following Carlos Rodon’s injury. The Yanks were already down Frankie Montas but Domingo German was ahead of Schmidt in line. Now both are needed in the Bronx. We’ll see if Schmidt can handle lineups more than once through the order after performing admirably out of the ‘pen in 2022. The upside of a Yankee arm who can give us a strikeout per inning is worth the late-round dart.

Shintaro Fujinami is showing some bright spots this spring as he adjusts to MLB life. His 12 ⅔ IP over four starts has yielded 17 strikeouts, but the 4.26 ERA/1.58 WHIP keeps the hype temperature modest. And I doubt playing for Oakland affords him the same 3-0 record when the games start counting, but he’ll call pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum home (second-worst for offense per Statcast) and should have deep-league streaming appeal throughout 2023.

Jared Shuster looks to be Atlanta’s No. 5 pitcher, carrying a slight edge over Dylan Dodd after Ian Anderson was sent to Triple-A. The 24-year-old southpaw was excellent at Double-A last year, posting a 2.78 ERA/0.96 WHIP with a 30% strikeout rate over ~90 innings. He didn’t do as well over nine Triple-A starts, but he’s been lights out this spring (0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 16 Ks in 12 ⅔ IP) to earn a look. Supported by a stellar offense and bullpen, Shuster is a nice flier.

Gavin Stone has been tabbed as this year’s Spencer Strider after a spicy spring has seen him strike out 14 of his 27 batters faced. He quickly advanced through the Dodger system in 2022, starting at High-A, crushing Double-A, and ending with 23 ⅓ stellar innings at Triple-A. And that was the PCL for Triple-A, which can be tough on a pitcher!

The overall 33.9% strikeout rate in ~120 IP backs up the hot spring. The Dodger rotation is already hurting and Stone could get a shot in short order. Bobby Miller is another young arm of interest in Hollywood, though Ryan Pepiot and his questionable control likely open the season covering the rotation’s back end. But it's only a matter of time until we get Stone's change on the big stage.

Gavin Stone started today by giving up 2 hits, then did this....
1) Change, Change, Change, Change-K!
2) 4-Seam, Change, Change-K!
3) Change, Change, Slider that painted the outside corner, 4-Seam, Change-INNING OVER!
Wow, Just Wow!
This Dude is HIM!
Check it Out!#dodgers pic.twitter.com/SG1qDVnutg

— Dodgers Daily (@dodger_daily) March 20, 2023

Other Young SPs of Note:

Kyle Harrison, Bryce Miller, Taj Bradley, Eury Perez, Tanner Bibee, Ricky Tiedemann.

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