Second Base ADPs - Overvalued and Undervalued

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In this piece, I'll lay out some second basemen who are shaping up as great values in fantasy drafts and also a few who are not worth their current prices. All ADP data can be found using our awesome rankings wizard.

The top half of the second base position is littered with talented players, from expected breakout candidate Trea Turner to top-five fantasy hitter Jose Altuve, to long-time studs like Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler. Once a weak spot in fantasy lineups, the second base position has become increasingly deep over the past few years with the 2017 season shaping up as no exception.

Here are some players who may far exceed or fall way short of their current draft slots.

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Undervalued Second Basemen

Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
ADP: 37, 2B5

Murphy was spectacular in his first full season in Washington, posting career highs in batting average, home runs, and RBI while being considered as a real MVP candidate. While some may look at Murphy's 2016 campaign as an outlier, I believe he is set to duplicate his strong numbers in his second year with the Nationals. He should be good for another .300 batting average, 20-25 home runs, and strong totals in runs scored and RBI this upcoming season.

Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 169, 2B14

Schoop showed improved plate discipline in 2016, cutting his strikeout rate down to 21.2%, a full 2% below his career mark. His numbers jumped up as a result as he finished with 25 homers, 82 RBI, and 82 runs scored. Hitting in the middle of what should be another high-powered Orioles lineup in hitter-friendly Camden Yards should make it easy for Schoop to post similar numbers to what he did in his breakout 2016 campaign.

Ben Zobrist, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 177, 2B15

Zobrist has been flying under the radar this spring. The veteran turned in a solid first season in Chicago, finishing with his most home runs since 2012 (18) and scoring 94 runs hitting toward the top of a powerful Cubs offense. Zobrist has never hit .300 in a full major league season, but his contributions across the other counting stats makes him a solid value in drafts this season. If you decide to wait on second base, Zobrist is a rock-solid middle round target.

Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants
ADP: 317, 2B24

Panik struggled through a disappointing 2016 campaign. He suffered a concussion in June which landed him on the 15-day DL and he finished with just 127 games played. It's hard to say whether the concussion played into his average dipping from .312 in 2015 to .239 in 2016, but that's what happened. While it's hard to quantify whether the concussion played into Panik's struggles, his low BABIP shows that he suffered from extremely poor luck last year. Panik's BABIP was just .245 in 2016, the lowest mark he's ever posted in a full season at any level of baseball. While he won't blow anyone away with power numbers, if he can get his average back up over .300, he's a solid sleeper heading into the season.

 

Overvalued Second Basemen

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 36, 2B5

Brian Dozier had a dominant 2016 campaign. Minnesota's second sacker was dominant over the second half of the season and finished with 42 home runs, 99 RBI, and 18 stolen bases, all career highs. While Dozier has always been a reliable source of runs scored, don't expect him to go mashing another 40 home runs this season. He should still be good for 25-30 long balls and plenty of runs scored, but keep expectations in check if you draft Dozier. Daniel Murphy and Dozier are currently going back-to-back according to NFBC data and I much prefer Murphy at that price.

Jean Segura, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 54, 2B8

Segura's one-year stint in Arizona was short but glorious. The middle infielder put up career highs in batting average, home runs, runs, and RBI. He finished 2016 with a .319 batting average, 20 homers, 102 runs, 64 RBI, and 33 stolen bases. Keep in mind, however, that Segura played half his games at Chase Field, which is probably the second-best hitter's park in baseball after Coors Field. The move to Seattle will make it tough for Segura to replicate his power numbers this year. While he should still be a good source for speed, it is hard to see him putting up a stat line similar to what he did in 2016. He is likely to be overdrafted this season.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians
ADP: 104, 2B11

Kipnis had a big year for the Indians in 2016, hitting a career-high 23 homers while scoring 91 runs and logging 82 RBI. Add in 12 steals and a .275 batting average and you have a five-category contributor at the second base position. The main reason to be bearish on Kipnis is the nagging shoulder inflammation which is expected to hold him out of action for four-to-five weeks. Shoulder injuries are always a red flag for hitters. If you need proof, look no further than what it has taken for his teammate Michael Brantley to return from his own shoulder issue. If Kipnis' shoulder injury doesn't end up lingering he will be fine where he's being drafted. That being said, there are several second basemen going after him in drafts who I would rather take a chance on, including Jose Peraza, Jonathan Schoop, and Ben Zobrist.

 

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