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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With several games scattered throughout the day, we're left with an eight-game main slate. Today's matchups feature no shortage of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 8/2/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Kodai Senga, NYM vs. KC ($9,500 DK, $10,600 FD)
All things considered, Kodai Senga is going to be my preferred pitching play today. Through 19 starts, he carries a strong 3.57 xERA and 3.78 xFIP. That includes similarly impressive numbers, like a .294 xwOBA, .334 xSLG, .214 xBA, and 5.4% barrel rate. The only hole in Senga's game is a bloated 11.9% walk rate, but he more than compensates with a productive 29.1% strikeout rate and 30.1% whiff rate.
The Royals are essentially the best matchup Senga could draw. They sport an MLB-worst 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, including a .668 OPS, .291 wOBA, and 23.9% strikeout rate. Overall, Kansas City scores 3.8 runs per game on the season. That figure has dropped to 3.5 runs since the beginning of June.
Gerrit Cole, NYY vs. TB ($10,800 DK, $10,900 FD)
Gerrit Cole is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he also brings the highest ceiling. Through 22 starts, he sports a 3.57 xERA and 3.61 xFIP. That consists of an excellent 27.3% strikeout rate, a .294 xwOBA, a .377 xSLG, a .232 xBA, and a 6.6% walk rate.
The best part of Cole's game is his consistency. He's surrendered three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 appearances, pitching at least six innings in all but one of those outings. Rostering Cole is an expensive undertaking, but that's usually accompanied by some peace of mind.
The reason Cole isn't a lock today is his tricky matchup. Tampa Bay has carried one of the league's more potent offenses this season, scoring 5.2 runs per game. However, they have tailed off recently, scoring only 3.6 runs per game since the beginning of July. In that span, the Rays posted a weak 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, including a .689 OPS and a generous 25.1% strikeout rate. There's certainly a path to a slate-breaking performance from Cole.
Also consider: Shane McClanahan, Logan Webb, Dane Dunning
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt McLain – 2B/SS, CIN vs. Drew Smyly ($5,600 DK, $3,900 FD)
Matt McLain is worth the spend-up if you can get there. Just 67 games deep into his career, McLain carries an outstanding .305/.376/.527 slash line with 11 home runs, including a 10.7% barrel rate. He's been particularly lethal against left-handed pitching, posting a 1.026 OPS and 169 wRC+ against southpaws.
Drew Smyly is a below-average pitcher, sporting a 4.17 xERA and 4.73 xFIP through 21 outings this season. That includes a weak .406 xSLG and .251 xBA. Hitters of all-handedness are slugging north of .440 against Smyly this season. He's likely going to have some trouble with this scary Cincinnati lineup.
Christopher Morel – 2B, CHC vs. Brandon Williamson ($4,800 DK, $4,100 FD)
Christopher Morel is in a great spot today. Through 64 games, he's slashing .280/.341/.538 with 16 home runs. That includes a fantastic 15.2% barrel rate, .484 xSLG, 49% hard-hit rate, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, and .345 xwOBA. The defect in Morel's approach is a 32.3% strikeout rate, but that shouldn't be as much of a factor in this matchup.
Brandon Williamson is a pitcher worth targeting every time he takes the mound. The rookie owns an atrocious 5.71 xERA and 5.23 xFIP through his first 13 career starts. He's surrendered a horrible .484 xSLG, .363 xwOBA, .273 xBA, and 42% hard-hit rate. Further, Williamson only strikes out batters at a 17.8% rate, severely limiting his ability to keep Morel quiet.
Ryan Mountcastle – 1B, BAL vs. Yusei Kikuchi ($3,600 DK, $3,000 FD)
This is an ideal matchup for Ryan Mountcastle. He carries a solid .252/.290/.462 slash line with 13 home runs overall this season. It's not terribly exciting, but the underlying numbers suggest Mountcastle is due for positive regression. He carries an outstanding .526 xSLG, 14% barrel rate, and .352 xwOBA. Mountcastle is at his best against left-handed pitching, slugging .659 versus southpaws with a 171 wRC+ this season.
Yusei Kikuchi has a longstanding problem with the long ball. He's surrendered 22 home runs in 2023, including a .449 xSLG and 90.5 mph average exit velocity, 42.5% hard-hit rate, and 9.8% barrel rate. Right-handed hitters are slugging .450 against Kikuchi this season and .497 against him for his career. Mountcastle has five hits, including four home runs, a double, and three walks, over 13 career plate appearances opposite Kikuchi.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mookie Betts – 2B/OF, LAD vs. Hogan Harris ($6,200 DK, $4,200 FD)
There's a good shot Mookie Betts eclipses his career-high 35-home run total this season. Through 100 games, he's launched 28 long balls and boasts a 150 OPS+, Betts' best mark since his 2018 MVP campaign. The success includes a .556 xSLG, .283 xBA, .402 xwOBA, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, and 12.3% barrel rate. Betts also annihilates left-handed pitching to the tune of a .677 slugging percentage and 181 wRC+.
For as bad as Hogan Harris has been, he hasn't given up as many home runs as you might expect. That said, it doesn't mean he isn't getting hit hard. Harris has surrendered a 43.1% hard-hit rate, 90 mph average exit velocity, and .435 xSLG. He frequently will follow an opener. But regardless, Betts looks great in this matchup.
Joc Pederson – OF, SFG vs. Slade Cecconi ($4,000 DK, $3,100 FD)
I think Joc Pederson goes yard in this game. He boasts a strong .807 OPS with a somewhat overwhelming 11 home runs. The advanced metric tells us he's mashing the ball, though, posting a .496 xSLG, 51.9% hard-hit rate, 91.3 mph average exit velocity, and 12.5% barrel rate. As is always the case with the Giants, there is pinch-hit risk. However, with Mike Yastrzemski on the injured list, Pederson may get a little more leeway than he normally does against southpaws.
Slade Cecconi makes his MLB debut on Wednesday. Despite having a cool name, he doesn't seem likely to succeed in the big show. Through 20 starts in Triple-A this season, Cecconi carries a 6.38 ERA and 5.52 xFIP. Notably, that includes 2.01 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Jordan Walker – OF, STL vs. Joe Ryan ($2,900 DK, $2,900 FD)
If you're in need of a value play, Jordan Walker is worth a look. Through 67 career games, the 21-year-old sports a .265/.330/.420 slash line with nine home runs. He's had trouble with consistency at the plate, but the heralded rookie possesses unlocked potential and showcased a prolific power stroke in the minors. Walker is in a surprisingly advantageous spot here.
Joe Ryan is one of the slate's best pitchers. That said, he's been no stranger to the long ball, surrendering 21 so far this season. Right-handed hitters have been particularly problematic for Ryan, slugging .502 with a .331 wOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Chicago Cubs vs. Brandon Williamson
The Cubs have emerged as my favorite stack of the day. Their offense is surging following a 20-run performance against the Reds last night. They've also retooled, trading for Jeimer Candelario at the deadline and recently activating Dansby Swanson off the injured list.
There is certainly some recency bias in picking the Cubs today, but Chicago has been above average against left-handed pitching all season, carrying a 105 wRC+ and .756 OPS. The best part is that every Cubs hitter is priced under $5K on DraftKings, making stacks very accessible.
The other reason I really like the Cubs in this spot is because of Brandon Williamson. The rookie owns an awful 5.71 xERA and 5.23 xFIP through his first 13 career starts. He's surrendered a horrible .484 xSLG, .363 xwOBA, .273 xBA, and 42% hard-hit rate. This potent Cubs lineup should be able to tee off on Williamson.
Favorite Plays: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Christopher Morel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Hogan Harris
Looking more into the premium tier, I like the Dodgers a lot if you can afford to get there. Los Angeles brings one of the league's most deadly offenses. They are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season, including a 110 wRC+ and .774 OPS against left-handed pitching. It goes without saying at this point, but their lineup is loaded with talent. The recent additions of Enrique Hernandez and Amed Rosario add another affordable element to the Dodgers' stacks.
Oakland is expected to roll out Hogan Harris and his 6.07 ERA, accompanied by a 5.04 xFIP. He has surrendered a 43.1% hard-hit rate, 90 mph average exit velocity, and .435 xSLG. Harris frequently follows an opener, but I'm not shying away from rostering the Dodgers in that event. Oakland's bullpen sports a league-worst 5.50 ERA.
Favorite Plays: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy
Also Consider: San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
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