RADIO
Yesterday was not good for me as I stuck to my SNG guns to watch them draft Udyr and get spanked. Then run it right back with similar results. Gen G was the nuts, and if you were bold enough for the BDD comeback play, you likely smashed. DWG won handily, TT threw hardily, and EDG will never lose. On to today.
The slate's LCK side lacks in exciting matches, but that's more than made up for in the LPL with a pair of premium showdowns. BLG is the second-biggest favorite on the slate and should be popular, but I think everyone is excited to see that later games so without further adieu. Let's GOOOO!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM on Saturday, February 6th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: T1 (-700) vs. Fredit Brion (+400)
Well, I got my Fredit upset the other night, and it was the only thing that saved my day. Can they do it again is the question, well, that and will T1 swap everyone around once more. UGH! T1 remains an enigma, and much like Gen G last night, they are a bit of a free square today, if you trust them, which I don't.
To win, though, I do trust them. T1 has the edge in the early game with better first blood, first turret, rift herald, first three turrets, and GD@15 numbers. Brion does have a better total drake percentage and vision score, but this is T1's match to lose. T1 has the better economy leading in GPD and CSM. T1 is the better team both in stats and personnel.
However, I am excited to see how Fredit Brion reacts coming off that big win over KT. With some newfound confidence and T1's inconsistency, they might have another upset in them. The problem here is the pace of play, and with Brion being the slowest team in the LCK, I don't think T1 has the upside I'm looking for on Saturday. I still like them for the sweep, but I won't have much.
Top T1 Plays
- Gumayusi - ADC - will wait on starters before I get excited.
- Keria - SUP - second in KP% and rock-solid starter.
- Zeus - TOP - after a solid debut, I doubt they go back to the struggling Canna.
7:00 AM: KT Rolster (-115) vs. AFS (-120)
Ahh, yes, another chance to be dead wrong about KT Rolster. Remember when I told you all that Rolster is short for a roller coaster? No word of a lie there. I have gotten them wrong every time out since the collapse versus HLE. AFS have been defying me as well, trying to prove they are solidly in the mid-tier of the LCK. They're coming in off a narrow loss to HLE in which they looked decent minus game one where they rolled over and played dead. Let's dig in, and I'm bound to get one of these teams right eventually.
AFS have the better early game by a smidge, and they hold the advantage in first blood, first turrets, rift herald, and first drake. As I've often mentioned, teams like to trade the first drake for the first rift herald. KT and AFS likely clash over that first herald at the eight-minute mark instead of trading. Whoever secures that first herald could establish the snowball, but it will be contentious. AFS has total drakes and barons, but KT has the upper hand in vision score. Overall statistically, I like AFS. They have also been the more consistent team with KT making swaps at jungle and mid recently, and with this being the late game, we won't know who is starting pre-lock.
So if AFS has the edge in stats and consistency, why can't I shake the nagging feeling that KT win here? They do have the blue side to first pick Kasia for Hybrid or Olaf for whoever starts in the jungle. The odds for this match have flipped so that AFS is now the favorite, so they have considerable value on DK. They also have a better projection than does KT for kills, with Rolster surrendering nearly 17 deaths in their losses. I think it all seems too good to be true, and that's why I'm thinking KT win. Officially though, I have to pick AFS to win 2-1. They have the advantage in critical areas, and I'm always wrong about KT.
Top AFS Plays:
- Dread - JNG - has worn his carry pants recently, and he leads the team in KS%
- Bang - ADC - second in KS.
- Lehends - SUP - KP% leader.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: BLG (-600) vs. OMG (+355)
Billibilli boys! The big LPL side of the slate starts with my pet team, and they are beginning to show people why I love them. They got the big upset over RNG on Monday and will be looking to carry that momentum through into the break. OMG continue to contend for the worst team in the league, and IG styled on them Thursday. All three LPL matches are spicy on Saturday; let's see how this one stacks up.
OMG has been wretched early with an average GD@15 of -1376, and that's good for second-worst in the league. BLG's +576 GD is good for fifth in the LPL, plus they have the edge in first blood, first turret, and first three turrets. OMG has the lead in both first drake and rift heralds, but given the other numbers, I don't think they can turn either of those into an actionable advantage. Total dragons and barons both lie with BLG.
This match should be a walk in the park for BLG, and I'm here for it. The other LPL matches have more kill upside but are also very close fights. I think I'll take the BLG money and run instead of coin-flipping the other games. BLG is the most expensive play on the slate, but they do fit nicely with AFS for a vegas odd special, and I think that's the go-to route for cash and single entry tonight.
Top BLG Plays:
- Aiming - ADC - I like the whole team in this one, but Aimings numbers are coming around, and he leads the team in KS since the win over RA.
- Biubiu - TOP - Using that same time frame encompassing four series and ten games, Biubiu leads the team in KP% and is second in KS%. Small sample, or is it? That would be half a season in NA.
- Jwei - SUP - promising debut, and while I like Zeka, he probably has the toughest matchup of anyone.
- Meteor - JNG - his numbers have suffered with Biu and Aiming coming alive, but still a stud
4:00 AM: JDG (-130) vs. Team WE (-105)
JDG is starting to wake up a bit after a slow start, and WE are stumbling after opening up 5-0. WE does get a boost in Shanks return after Yimeng's underwhelming debut on Tuesday. JDG got a layup with RW on Wednesday to recover from the loss to TES last Sunday. Let's jump into the matchup.
WE has the early edge with leads in CSM, first blood, first turret, and first drake. JDG has a better rift herald rate and a slight lead in the first three turrets, but WE has the edge in total drakes and baron percentage. I'd give Beishang the edge in the jungle slightly over Kanavi, and WE use Bei's advantage to try to get the bot lane ahead. Unfortunately, Juimeng and Missing haven't been up to the task as of late. Loken and LvMao should win this showdown straight up. Juimeng's team fight positioning has not been excellent; add that to the swap back in mid lane, and its recipe for a JDG victory. Statistically, it's hard not to give WE the nod, but as the memes tell us, Haha, teamfight goes BRRRRR!
The lines on this one have moved too, and they agree with my JDG assessment. While I've been feeling snake-bitten recently, I'm firm here with JDG. WE might be ahead early, but I doubt they can snowball fully with the bot lane woes and Zoom doing Zoom things. JDG weakness is mid lane, but WE will have trouble capitalizing there. JDG's strength is WE weakness, and for me, that's enough. Both teams have some juice, with death per loss numbers hovering near 19 and kills per win over 18. If you're feeling the Shanks return, WE priced as mild favorites will go under-owned and give you some good leverage and upside.
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC - leads the team in both KP% and KS%.
- LvMao - SUP - baller, shot caller, wish he was a little bit taller, but second on the team in KP% with the game focusing on the bottom half of the map.
- Kanavi - JNG - will keep pace with Beishang just behind the bot duo in KP%
- Zoom - JNG - as good as Breathe has been, he's no Zoom.
Top WE Plays:
- Beishang - JNG - will need to carry for the WE win.
- Juimeng - ADC - leads team in KS% second in KP%.
- Missing - SUP - needs to step up here.
- Shanks - MID - best matchup versus JDG, ban Zoey, please.
6:00 AM: FunPlus Phoenix (-125) vs. TopEsports (-110)
Banger is an overused term, but HOLY COW WHAT A BANGER to end the day in the LPL. A match of the month candidate with FPX and Nuguri firing on all cylinders. TES has righted the ship after their early struggles setting the stage for this epic conflict.
TES has a slightly better early game while FPX has been better late game. TES has the edge in GD@15, first blood, first drake, and first three turrets. FunPlus have been using Nuguri's pressure on the top side to secure early heralds, and unlike a lot of teams, they can convert that into big leads. Their 73% first turret rate leads the league, and the same goes for their 76% baron take. TES does have the edge in total dragons, but only by four percent.
The stats are close across the board, and the kill number are too. Both teams are over 20 deaths in their losses, with TES over 20 kills in their wins. FPX has a very respectable 18 kpw, and that's what I expect them to do here. Zhou and JKL have been aggressive as always, and I expect them to be massive if TES wins. Nuguri has just been such a difference-maker for FPX, and with 369 struggling, it will be too easy for FPX to exploit that pressure. TES will need Karsa to live up to his LPL nickname 雷达哥, radar bro by tracking and slowing Bo. If he can do that, it will be a win condition for TES.
Top FPX plays
- LWX - ADC - stray cat no more LWX is crushing it this split.
- Crisp - SUP - leads the team in KP%
- Bo - JNG - I should probably list him first, but the bot duo will likely pop in a win. Leads the team in KP% and second in KS% to LWX.
- Nuguri - TOP - I like Doinb's numbers better, but the matchup for Nuguri is better.
Top TES plays
- Jackeylove - ADC - far and away the KP and KS leader.
- Zhou - SUP - second in KP to his adc and is never afraid to fight.
- Karsa - JNG - the radar bro will have his hands full with Bo, but if he can track him and slow him, it's key for TES.
- Knight - MID - current meta for mids has blunted his impact, but he's still a monster and makes an incredible 1-2 punch with JKL.
Summary
- TLDR: T1 2-0, AFS 2-1, BLG 2-0, JDG 2-0, FPX 2-1. BIG SLATE! TES and WE as dogs are very attractive. AFS, too with the line movement, opens up a lot of options.
- Both of the premium matches in the LPL will be loaded with fireworks and nerve-wracking moments, but I'll take favs in both. Strength versus weakness in those two decide it for me.
- For single entry and cash games JDG/BLG or AFS/BLG will be the play using the odds value on both former undogs to fit in a big safe favorite. I'm OK to fade the T1 match and focus on those values and pick the later games in the LPL for gpps.
- Don't get overwhelmed by the options like I did. Make your picks and shoot your shot. We've got another big one tomorrow, and then it's on to the lunar new year break as the year of the rat leaves us and the year of the ox begins. I hope your dfs lineups all are STRONG LIKE BULL!
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