RADIO
We are all faced with difficult decisions during the fantasy football season or even in the preseason. Kyle Richardson talks about some difficult decisions in this edition of Keep/Trade/Cut which highlights several PPR running backs close in ADP.
If you follow me on Twitter (@krich1532), you know I love to play the game Keep/Trade/Cut. We pick three players with an average draft position (ADP) in the same range and we determine what we will do with them. This is a great exercise to start a discussion and get your brain moving. So why not turn it into a reoccurring article to go even more in-depth on these players?
For this edition, let’s look at some running backs who are known more for their ability to catch out of the backfield. None of these players are going to be your RB1 but maybe they will have the ability to reach RB2 in PPR leagues.
Which one do you trust the most and which one do you believe you can get the most value for?
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Keep, Trade or Cut?
Chris Thompson - 93.0 (RB38)
Duke Johnson - 93.7 (RB39)
Ty Montgomery - 108.1 (RB44)
*12-team, PPR ADP from fantasyfootballcalculator.com as of 8/10/18
Keep
I’m going to start with the easy choice here and that’s Duke Johnson. His current ADP seems insane considering it’s PPR but that could begin to rise soon. The Browns decided to move on from Corey Coleman and Antonio Callaway was just caught with marijuana in his vehicle. We should also consider Josh Gordon’s absence from training camp as a positive for Johnson. Tyrod Taylor is getting the opportunity to build chemistry with Jarvis Landry and Johnson which will be great come Week 1.
Johnson is losing a ton of value based on the signing of Carlos Hyde and the Browns draft choice of Nick Chubb. We can’t forget that he had one of the quietest RB1 seasons in PPR leagues last season that I can remember. His RB11 status from last season was anchored by 74 catches on 93 targets and 693 yards. Hyde and Chubb will pull value from each other, but Johnson’s pass-catching ability separates him completely. Last season he finished with 79.6% which was top 10 for running backs. He is a safe RB2 in PPR leagues in 2018.
Trade
This is where the difficult decisions need to be made. Johnson probably has the most value of the three and would be the easiest to trade, but because he’s also the safest play with the highest upside of these three, he stays up there. So, let’s try to trade Chris Thompson, which may be easier said than done. After the injury to Derius Guice, Thompson is going to get his fair share of work. I just covered this backfield in my last piece, Running Back Committees to Buy, and this backfield has great value.
Your best bet in trading Thompson comes in a PPR league to a team with no running back depth. Even though there are concerns, keep in mind this guy was the RB11 through the first 10 weeks of the 2017 season. The best part about that is Thompson didn’t need a bunch of carries to reach RB1. Thompson averaged 6.4 carries per game, which seems realistic to do again in 2018 if he is the true handcuff to another back. If you can convince another owner that Thompson can repeat his touchdown rate from last season, you could potentially get RB2 value for him in a trade.
Thompson is a guy I only want to own in PPR redraft leagues or dynasty leagues where I am a contending team. If you are not contending, sell him now for whatever you can get. As soon as Guice really inserts himself in that offense next season, he will start to take more targets away from Thompson. Even if you could get some draft picks out of him right now, I would go for it and use him as bait to rebuild with.
Cut
This time last year, Ty Montgomery would not be listed here. He would have not only been listed as the keeper, but he was a top 10 running back for me. Yeah, that one bit me hard. Needless to say, Montgomery ended 2016 well and started 2017 strong, so it looked like he may be the real deal. Over the final five games of the 2016 season Montgomery averaged 6.45 yards per carry and over the course of the first three games in 2017, he was the RB4 in PPR leagues.
If it wasn’t for some broken ribs, Montgomery could have been in for a special season. That didn’t happen though and both Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones were able to get enough looks to convince owners Montgomery was an afterthought.
While Montgomery won’t be leading the backfield anytime soon, he has enough versatility as a pass catcher to be a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers and rack up some PPR points. He lands as a cut out of these three players because he has the most uncertainty. Johnson must deal with more talent in his backfield, but you’re are not going convince anyone to take Montgomery over Thompson or Johnson right now. He’s a great late round stash in PPR leagues and worth owning if you also have Williams who could run away with this job as Jones will start the season with a two-game suspension.
