X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Believing In Matt Boyd - Is A Breakout Season Approaching?

Riley Mrack looks into the early success of Detroit Tigers starting pitcher (SP) Matt Boyd. Can he sustain his hot start and turn it into a breakout 2019 season?

We’re nearly two full weeks into baseball’s regular season, and waiver decisions are already challenging. With several big name players already landing on the shelf early this year, we have to dissect whose hot start is worth believing in to fill our roster voids.

One of the names making a huge impact so far this season is Detroit Tigers starter, Matt Boyd. He holds a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and is 1-1 on the young campaign including a career outing versus the Yankees in which he struck out 13 batters. Three starts into 2019, the southpaw already has 29 strikeouts to his credit in only 11.1 innings pitched. This production alone warrants a speculative roster spot even if he’s on a destitute ball club.

Daniel Norris was thought of to be the marquee piece in the haul that the Tigers received from the Blue Jays in the David Price deal from 2015, but it appears Boyd was the real gem in the trade deadline swap. After glimpses of prominence in 2018, we’ll dive into Boyd’s three-game sample size in 2019, as well as his previous history to see if this is the start of a breakout season, or if it’s just a couple of fortuitous outings.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

An Up-And-Down 2018

Boyd’s overall numbers in 2018 don’t stand out as a fantasy relevant player. He tossed 170.1 IP holding a 9-13 record, 4.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while striking out 159 batters. What hurt the lefty a season ago was his inability to keep the ball in the park. His 1.43 HR/9 was eighth-worst in the majors as he lived and died by the fly ball with an enormously high 49.9% fly-ball rate.

These numbers got worse as the season progressed, and it was a night and day difference depending on where he was throwing. His 0.92 HR/9 at his home field in Comerica Park was respectable, but when he pitched on the road, this number sky-rocketed to a 1.87 clip. Surprisingly his FB% is 4% higher at his spacious home park, so it’s more likely his 15.1% HR/FB rate on the road regresses towards his 11.2% 2018 mark this season.

The good news for Boyd in 2018 was that he did manage to set a new career-high in SwStr% (10.2%). He essentially ditched the changeup as it went from an 18.5% usage down to 7.7% in 2018. In exchange for the off-speed, he upped his slider usage from 11.9% to a whopping 31.1%.

Major leaguers have hit Boyd’s change to a .277/.336/.478 slash line, so it’s no wonder he threw it less often. His slider was also his best strikeout pitch in 2018 as he had a 15.8% SwStr%, the best rate of his whole arsenal. With this delivery, Boyd’s strikeout arm seems legit, and it should improve with more big league experience.

 

2019 Early Dominance

What stands out the most so far this season for Boyd is his impressively high strikeout total. His torrid pace is admittedly unsustainable, but it is encouraging nonetheless. His first start against the Blue Jays saw him attain a 17.7% SwStr rate and he followed that outing with a 22.5% rate against the New York Yankees when he struck out 13 batters in 6.1 IP.

Boyd has used his slider 37.2% of the time this season, and it’s staying on that elite 2018 pace with a 15.7 SwStr %. With this pitch in his back pocket, he has snuck his 91.1 MPH fastball by hitters. His Contact% on his four-seamer is at 71.0%, over 14% below his career rate, and his SwStr% on this delivery has nearly doubled from a 7.3% career mark to 13.4% this season.

Although the strikeouts are getting the bulk of his fantasy attention, we should take note he’s yet to serve up a big fly (knock on wood). It’s also worth mentioning that two of his starts came in the small confines of Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium. Boyd has an above average average fly ball rate of 44.1% rate, and combined with his 8.3 Barrel% and 36.1 Hard Hit%, suggests he's getting lucky with no fly balls leaving the park yet.

 

Rest Of Season Outlook

There’s no debate that Boyd is off to a stellar start in 2019. His strikeout numbers are a bit elevated and may not hold this superb pace over the course of a season, but that’s not to say that they won’t still be excellent this year. If he can keep throwing his slider effectively and sneaking in his fastball when he needs to, Boyd will provide at least a K-per inning this season which holds tremendous fantasy appeal in itself.

The 28-year-old has limited the long ball so far this season which is his key to having a breakout year, but this improvement also seems less likely to hold. If he continues to limit long balls though, he'll keep his name in the conversation of a bonafide fantasy stud and it will help him earn trust with fantasy owners to strut him out there every week.

It seems inevitable that Boyd will have the odd game where he serves up 2-3 homers and gets rocked for more than a handful of runs. These types of outings will balance out because as we’ve seen so far, he’s legitimately capable of shutting down an offense and dominating with the swing-and-miss.

Boyd is unquestionably worth rostering for your fantasy pitching staff, but be aware that not every outing will be pleasant. He is trustworthy for his home starts, but we need more data to truly believe that he can reduce the number of fly balls and home runs like he has in his two games this season.

Boyd is currently owned in 65% of leagues, so if he’s available in your league, scoop him up, and if you already own him, don’t be discouraged by a bad game if one occurs in his next few starts. The only way to take advantage of a breakout player is to see it through from beginning to end, and with Boyd, it may be a roller coaster ride.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Tyler Reddick

Has a Lot of Work To Do To Be Competitive in Mexico
AJ Allmendinger

Struggling to Find Speed in Mexico City
Chris Buescher

Says Car is "Bad Fast" Heading into Mexico City Race
Michael McDowell

Confident Heading into Viva Mexico 250
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown

s Records 12 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Royce Lewis

to be Placed on Injured List
Byron Buxton

Exits Early on Saturday
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF