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Last season, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy became the fifth rookie quarterback to make it to a conference championship game. Will C.J. Stroud be able to do the same?
It's not likely in a tough matchup against the number one seed Baltimore Ravens. But 61% of bettors think he and his team will keep the score within the 9.5-point spread. I, however, think that will be tougher done than said.
Let me make my case for why the top seeds in both conferences will roll and why the Chiefs and Bills won't give us the epic shootout we would like to see. Dive into the best bets for the Divisional Round.
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Divisional Round NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -9.5 / SF -449)
Saturday, 8:15 pm | O/U: 50.5
The Packers gashed the Cowboys for 415 yards in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. The Cowboys were sitting back in nickel and dime coverage all game long. The Packers got off to a 27-point lead and set up Aaron Jones for a huge game in the second half. Jones rushed for 88 yards on nine carries after halftime and finished with 118 yards.
Not to take anything away from Aaron Jones, but the Cowboys' run defense has often been lax these past couple of years. Jones has had particular success against Dem Boys, rushing for an average of nearly 6.0 yards per carry. Against the 49ers, he is averaging 4.0 yards per carry. The 49ers allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game last season (89.7). The 49ers also allow the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL (5.9 versus 6.5 for the Cowboys).
But the biggest difference is that the 49ers have a history of playoff success. Their players and head coach have more confidence than the perpetually-choking Cowboys. The Niners have been aching for their chance to get back to where their season left off last year with injuries to their quarterbacks.
They thought they would have won. They thought they should have won. They made noise about it all offseason, and then they backed it up when they beat down the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Now their real vindication journey begins, and they have to beat the Packers' next franchise quarterback in order to make their way back to the NFC Championship Game. The Niners have won seven of their last 11 matchups.
Pick: 49ers -9.5 (-110)
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -9.5 / BAL -448)
Saturday, 4:30 pm
This and the 49ers game have the two biggest margins on the spread. The Ravens have earned this much deference by leading the NFL in point differential.
They outscored teams by an average of over 11 points per game over the regular season. They didn't just beat the average team badly. They romped over playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders, beating the Lions by 32, the Browns by 25 (in their first meeting), the Niners by 14, and the Dolphins by 37. They also beat the Texans by 16 in Week 1, but I wouldn't put weight on that game given that it was C.J. Stroud's first start and DeMeco Ryan's first game as a head coach.
The Ravens picked up their level of play in the second half of the season. From Weeks 7 through 17, they won seven of their ten games by more than a touchdown. In the first six weeks of the season, they only won two games by nine or more points.
Stroud has been playing extremely well, period. He's been playing historically well for a rookie quarterback. But the Ravens' defense is unlike any he has faced yet. It's going to be even more difficult for him than the Browns' defense, which has always been vulnerable to big plays. The Texans have only faced three top-ten passing defenses all season, and Stroud completed 59% of his passing attempts for just 157.7 yards per game in those tough matchups.
Two of the Texans' passing touchdowns against the Browns went for 30 yards or more. They have relied on big plays in the passing game all season long. Twenty-four percent of their passing plays have been big "boom" plays (defined by RotoViz's Advanced Team Stats Explorer as plays that result in at least 1.0 EPA* added in a single play), the fourth-highest ratio of any team. But the Texans also have a relatively high rate of "bust" pass plays (i.e., interceptions, sacks, and misses on third down). The Ravens will make them pay for mistakes.
(*EPA is a measure of how many "expected points" a team adds to its total from the result of a play. It is dependent on the field position, down, time remaining, and other in-game circumstances. For example, a forty-yard pass is generally going to be a big play, but it will be more impactful in a tied game than in a game where one team is already winning by twenty.)
The Texans have a strong run defense, but they will have to be at their best to slow down a Ravens offense that ranks No. 1 in EPA/rush play and No. 2 in positive EPA rush play percentage. Unfortunately, the Texans' whole defensive line is banged up and some are at risk of missing the game.
Rotational defensive end Jerry Hughes (ankle) has missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. So did DT Sheldon Rankins (ribs/shoulders). Rookie star DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday, as did DE Jonathan Greenard. Others who have been limited but who will probably end up playing include inside linebackers Denzel Perryman and Blake Cashman.
The Ravens have a big spread to cover, but they're good enough to do it, and the Texans' magic is going to run out.
Pick: Ravens +9.5 (-110)
Divisional Round NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -2.5)
Sunday, 4:30 pm | O/U: 45.5
Patrick Mahomes will be away from Kansas City for the first time in his postseason career, but the temperature will still be below-freezing.
Both teams have elite defenses. The Chiefs are allowing the second-fewest points per game this season, and the Bills are allowing the fourth-fewest. They only allowed a combined 34.9 points per game together. They are both top eight in terms of the fewest EPA/play allowed. Even if you combine their offensive scoring per game against an average defense, they only get to 48.9 points per game.
Like their two past regular season matchups, this game will be more of a defensive struggle than a shootout.
Pick: Under 45.5
Recap
- Wild Card Round: 1-0 on Moneyline, 0-1 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
- Post-season Record: 1-0 on Moneyline, 0-1 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
- Season-long Record: 7-9 on Moneyline, 9-15 Against the Spread, 11-7 on Over/Under Picks
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