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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Friday, August 11, 2023. Use Juan Carlos Blanco's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
We've got another big Friday night slate on tap, and each passing day only builds more urgency as the season enters its stretch run. There are plenty of appealing matchups for both pitchers and hitters on Friday. When it comes to the latter, I'll be daring to be a little different by targeting big days for a pair of batters in lefty-on-lefty matchups.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, August 11, 2023. Let's jump right in without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Andrew Abbott OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-139 Caesars Sportsbook)
Andrew Abbott has been one of several standout rookies for the Reds, kickstarting his big-league career with a 6-3 record, 2.92 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9 across his first 12 starts.
Abbott has come back down to earth a bit in his last two outings, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits and eight walks over nine combined innings to what was a red-hot Cubs team at Wrigley and to the Nationals at home. Nevertheless, matters shape up well for him on paper Friday. The host Pirates own a 24.8 percent strikeout rate, .215 average, .591 OPS, .081 ISO, .267 wOBA, and -14.1 wRAA against lefties since July 1.
Abbott's strikeout prop -- 5.5 -- isn't a bad way to go either at plus money at several sportsbooks. However, the outs recorded one, albeit at heavier juice, is even more tempting considering Pittsburgh's aforementioned struggles against southpaws and the fact Abbott has recorded at least 17 outs in 10 of 12 starts.
Cincy is a solid road favorite Friday, and I'm banking on Abbott hanging in long enough to cash this bet.
Blake Snell To Record A Win (+130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Blake Snell can be somewhat of a frustrating player to ride a bet on, but the left-hander does qualify for a decision more often than not. The Padres check in as up to -170 road favorites over the Diamondbacks on Friday night.
Snell has qualified for a decision in 16 of his 23 starts. However, he's just 1-4 on the road. Despite being a deceiving number, it is undoubtedly playing a role in this excellent price. It's important to keep in mind the lopsided won-loss mark is offset by a 2.41 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in that 59.2-inning road sample.
Then there's the matter of Snell's matchup, which could hardly line up any better. Left-handers have been Arizona's kryptonite most of the season, even though the D-Backs haven't struck out an inordinate amount against lefties. Yet, they still own a .221 average, .115 ISO, .288 wOBA, and -7.2 wRAA against southpaws since July 1.
Current Arizona bats have had an abysmal time against Snell over their respective careers as well -- they own a collective .135 average and .492 OPS against him in 113 career encounters.
Justin Verlander To Record A Win (+135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
There's a 5.1-3.7 projected-run-total disparity between the heavily favored Astros (up to -190) and the visiting Angels on Friday, and Verlander's presence on the mound has plenty to do with that.
The legendary right-hander fired a quality start against the Yankees in his first start back in Houston following his trade from the Mets, allowing two earned runs over seven innings. Verlander ironically took the loss in that game, but he'd won each of his last three decisions with New York immediately prior to the move and was 4-1 since July 1.
The Angels check into Friday's matchup having won two straight but carrying just a 3-7 mark in their last 10 overall. Los Angeles also carries a bloated 27.5 percent strikeout rate against righties since the All-Star break, and current Angels bats sport an ugly .169 average and .460 OPS against Verlander in 162 career encounters.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Freddie Freeman To Record A RBI (+110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Freddie Freeman has arguably been baseball's most complete hitter all season. The future Hall of Famer has particularly been on a tear since shortly after play resumed following the All-Star break. Freeman went into Thursday boasting a .471 average, 1.347 OPS, and a tiny 13.3 percent strikeout rate over his previous 21 games.
The sample includes 17 extra-base hits and 18 RBI, the latter a byproduct of Freeman's jaw-dropping .424 average with runners on base and an even more astounding .500 figure with men in scoring position during that sample. The Dodgers have a robust projected total of six runs for the matchup against Austin Gomber as of early Friday, so the chances of Freeman delivering a run again are certainly strong.
Gomber hasn't enjoyed prior encounters with Freeman, either, despite it being a same-handed matchup. Freeman has lit him up for a .571 average with a double and a home run in seven career plate appearances against him. Those numbers are a microcosm of each player's body of work in same-handed matchups -- Freeman boasts a .369 average and .453 wOBA against left-handers at home, while Gomber has yielded a .368 average, 18 runs, and a .459 wOBA to the 108 lefty bats he's faced thus far.
Kyle Tucker OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Astros are big favorites Friday night versus the Angels and Reid Detmers. Houston's projected run total is at 5.1 and climbing as of early Friday morning. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker gets a crack at a fellow left-hander. Much like Freeman, this is a scenario he actually thrives in.
Tucker boasts an outstanding .341 average and .423 wOBA against southpaws overall. He's been even better at home in that split with respective figures of .362 and .443. What's more, Tucker has only struck out a minuscule 6.3 percent of the time versus lefties at Minute Maid Park. Detmers checks in having allowed a .312 average and .389 wOBA to lefty bats, including figures of .324 and .435 on the road.
Tucker will also have a good shot at cashing this prop whenever Detmers exits, as Angels relievers have pitched to a 6.75 ERA and .339 wOBA against left-handed hitters thus far in August. Tucker is already averaging 2.4 hits + runs + RBI per game for the season, making this an especially achievable prop.
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