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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Thursday, May 9, 2024. Use Juan Carlos Blanco's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
We're set for a larger-than-usual Thursday slate of MLB action, and I've honed in a pair of pitcher props and a trio of hitter bets to consider. For a change, in addition to the usual Over bets, I'm actually focusing on a couple of Under wagers that I feel have a chance to cash in.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, May 9, 2024. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Marcus Stroman UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-134 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Marcus Stroman's Yankees career has gotten off to a solid start, as he's posted a 2-1 record, 3.41 ERA, and career-high 8.5 K/9 over his first seven starts. However, the right-hander's average fastball velocity is actually down a tick to an average of 90.5 mph, and his xERA of 4.23 does imply he's been on the good side of Lady Luck to an extent.
Stroman's opponent Thursday, the Astros, doesn't exactly strike fear despite the host of big names that dot their lineup. Houston is now 12-24 following Wednesday's sixth loss in as many games to the Yankees this season. However, despite all their underachieving, the Astros have been tough against right-handers, especially at home.
Houston had a .264 average and .335 wOBA against righties at Minute Maid Field going into Wednesday, along with an impressively modest 18.1 percent strikeout rate in that split, the second lowest in the AL. Stroman's slight improvement in his ability to miss bats notwithstanding, there's a good chance Houston hitters give him enough of a battle to keep him at four strikeouts or fewer for the fifth time in eight starts.
Reid Detmers OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-155 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Reid Detmers is a quality pitcher that's fallen on some hard times in recent starts, pitching to a 10.12 ERA and 1.69 WHIP across the 10.2 innings covering his last pair of turns. Yet, the southpaw went into that stretch with a 3-1 record, 2.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, and 0.6 HR/9 over the 29.2 innings covering his first five starts of the season.
Detmers recorded at least 18 outs in three of those first five trips to the mound, and even with his recent struggles, he did record 17 outs his last time out against the Guardians. Detmers' advanced stats also hint at the fact he's been better than his recent performances indicate, as he still carries a .216 xBA, .289 xwOBA, and 3.23 xERA on the season.
Reid Detmers discussing his "Crap your Pants" curveball and see his Curveball Grip. ⚒️
Reid is the guest on this week's Baseball Dojo podcast (sponsored by @FanDuel)...available wherever you get your podcasts. @CodifyBaseball pic.twitter.com/1lBYHEJkeP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2024
Finally, consider the opposing Royals could be just what the doctor ordered for a Detmers turnaround, even with their surprisingly strong 22-16 record. Kansas City has struggled against left-handers on the road, posting a .270 wOBA, -3.9 wRAA, and .077 ISO in that split. Given the somewhat elevated price for this prop, it's also evident oddsmakers seem to feel Detmers has a reasonably good chance of hitting it.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Alex Bregman UNDER 1.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm not in the habit of suggesting the Under on hitters, but Bregman is somewhat of an exception Thursday. Not only is the veteran struggling to the tune of a .189/.268/.252 slash line, but he happens to be facing a pitcher in Stroman that's given him fits throughout his career. While Bregman will also take some hacks against Yankees relievers, his track record is essentially just as poor.
Stroman has one hit, a double, in 15 career plate appearances against Stroman, and a .179 average and .560 OPS versus all Yankees pitchers overall. A big part of Bregman's struggles this season might be attributed to him getting good wood on the ball at a much lower frequency, as he's carrying a career-low 3.7 percent barrel rate and 34.6 percent hard-hit rate.
In turn, Stroman is allowing an impressively low 5.8 percent barrel rate and is allowing his lowest hard-hit rate (34.6 percent) since 2017. Bregman could certainly square up for at least one hit, but I'm banking on Stroman and New York's talented bullpen, which has pitched to a .211 BAA and .282 wOBA against righty batters at home, keeping Bregman at bay.
Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook) or To Hit A HR (+440 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Nolan Arenado's .287 average and .351 on-base percentage don't hint at anything being amiss, but it's the third component of his slash line that runs contrary to his career norms. The veteran is sitting on just a .390 slugging percentage after posting a .459 figure or higher in that category in nine of his last 10 seasons. The drop is largely the byproduct of Arenado having belted just 10 extra-base hits, including two home runs, across 154 plate appearances.
To put it in perspective, Arenado averaged an extra-base hit every 9.5 plate appearances over his first three seasons in St. Louis (2021-23). The slugger's strikeout rate is actually down from last season's 16.5 percent to 15.6 percent, but his barrel rate (2.6 percent) and hard-hit rate (29.6 percent) are both at career lows.
Nevertheless, Arenado didn't forget how to hit for power overnight, and Thursday, he faces a pitcher in rookie Tobias Myers that could certainly help him break out of his drought. Myers allowed 30 homers in 130.2 innings at Double-A Biloxi last season, his longest stint at any minor-league stop. He's followed that up by producing a 3.5 HR/9 over his first 13 big-league innings, allowing five balls to clear the fence in that span.
Myers is surrendering a 12.8 percent barrel rate thus far, and all five round trippers he's conceded have come from right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Arenado has hit both his homers off righties and owns a .312 average and .803 OPS against that handedness as well. Then, Arenado also has seven doubles and both his homers off either fastballs or breaking pitches, the two offerings Myers has utilized the most thus far in same-handed matchups.
Willie Calhoun OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Willie Calhoun has cemented himself into an everyday role for now in the Angels lineup with Miguel Sano and Anthony Rendon both sidelined, posting a .318 average and .860 OPS across his first 24 plate appearances. The lefty-swing veteran could be in a good spot to stay hot Thursday, as the Royals will roll out struggling veteran right-hander Michael Wacha to start the game.
Willie Calhoun had quite the Angels debut today 🤩 @Angels l #RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/ksa0TBswKp
— Bally Sports West (@BallySportWest) May 4, 2024
Wacha has surrendered a .320 average and .379 wOBA to the 84 left-handed hitters he's faced thus far, giving up 40 total bases along the way. Wacha has yielded nine doubles, a triple, and four homers overall across 37.2 frames, so hitters aren't having much trouble getting good wood on the ball against him.
Calhoun has laced four of his first seven hits of the season for extra bases, and he produced 54 total bases in 44 games a year ago for the Yankees. Whenever Wacha exits, Calhoun will also face a Royals bullpen that's surrendered a .256 average and .359 OBP to left-handed hitters this season, bolstering the case for this prop at an excellent price.
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