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It's Thursday, which has often meant very abbreviated slates early on this season. Today is certainly no exception, as there are only six games on the slate and only one that isn't a matinee affair. Nevertheless, we've endeavored to still identify some appealing pitcher and hitter props that are set up for potential success.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, May 2, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @jcblanco22 or hanging with the rest of the RotoBaller peeps in our Premium Discord.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Edward Cabrera OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-148 FanDuel)
Cabrera has some ugly numbers early this season, but he has both a proven body of work in past years and essentially one poor outing that's inflating some of his metrics unfavorably. That came in his most recent outing when he surrendered six runs (five earned) across 4.1 innings to the Nationals. Despite that stumble, Cabrera still boasts a 12.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 12.1 percent swinging strike rate.
Cabrera also has a .226 xBA and .296 xwOBA, while his 3.41 xERA is appreciably smaller than his actual 5.28 figure. That entire collection of stats helps support the notion of a big bounce-back outing in a favorable home matchup Thursday afternoon against a Rockies team that sports a 27.4 percent strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
Cabrera also has 10 strikeouts in 27 career encounters with current Rockies bats, and he owns a .209 BAA and 26.0 percent strikeout rate over 106.2 career innings. He recorded 17 strikeouts in just 11 innings over his first two starts of the season before the hiccup against Washington, and I see him thriving in similar fashion on Thursday.
Logan Allen Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-119 Caesars)
We go from one pitcher I expect to cruise to one in Allen that I envision having some struggles against an underachieving but still talented matchup. The left-hander has opened the season with a 3-1 record, 5.46 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP across his first six starts, giving up at least three earned runs in all but one start.
Allen has pitched 5.1 innings or fewer in four of his six outings and has pitched to plenty of contact, allowing 33 hits over 31 innings, with 16 of those knocks going for extra bases. Allen also has a middling 19.3 percent strikeout rate and an elevated 8.1 percent walk rate, the latter playing a role in him getting the early hook at times.
The Astros' 10-20 record is largely mystifying considering their key bats are healthy, but Houston has enjoyed plenty of success against left-handed pitching. The 'Stros boast a .287 average and .405 wOBA versus southpaws at home, also logging a 13.9 percent walk rate and a very modest 14.6 percent strikeout rate in that split.
Allen could therefore work himself into some trouble through a variety of ways early and build up enough of a pitch count to buy himself an early hook.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Michael Busch OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+145 Bet365)
The price on this prop for Busch is particularly eye-catching, considering he still owns a solid .801 OPS after an 0-for-4 night Wednesday and has been particularly effective against right-handed pitching. He gets such a matchup Thursday afternoon and does so against a struggling pitcher at that, with the Mets trotting out Adrian Houser.
The veteran righty has opened his Mets tenure with an 0-3 record, 8.37 ERA, and 1.90 WHIP, throwing in an extremely bloated 6.1 BB/9 along the way for good measure. About the only positive thing Houser has done has been to mostly keep the ball in the park, and even that could start to change soon. Houser is allowing a career-high 9.8 percent barrel rate and 92.9 mph exit velocity while also conceding a 43.9 percent hard-hit rate, all per Statcast.
Busch makes for a dangerous foe, considering Houser is allowing a .280 average and .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Busch has been raking against righties, posting a .286 average, 1.022 OPS, and .434 wOBA against righties on the road. He's compiled 45 total bases in 95 total PAs versus right-handed pitching as well, while Busch also has a .306 average and .415 xwOBA versus Houser's most often-thrown pitches to lefty hitters, the sinker and four-seam.
Jeremy Peña has his 3rd home of the year pic.twitter.com/pYzxy0F2f2
— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) April 28, 2024
Jeremy Pena OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105 DraftKings)
Pena is one of the Astros bats that could contribute to an early exit for the Guardians' Allen, as the young shortstop has been one of the few bright spots for Houston this season and has particularly done a number on left-handed pitching.
Pena carries a .325 average and .807 OPS overall coming into Thursday, and a .303 average and .353 wOBA versus southpaws specifically. For what it's worth, he's given Allen fits over a very small career sample, knocking a pair of singles and a double in three plate appearances against him.
Allen has surrendered a .270 average and .366 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season, with 14 of the 27 hits he's conceded in that split having gone for extra bases. Pena has 52 total bases in 30 games as well, and he owns a .360 average and .404 wOBA against the four-seam fastball, Allen's most often-thrown pitch to right-handed hitters.
Jose Ramirez to Record an RBI (+130 FanDuel)
Just as Pena is in a good spot Thursday against Allen, so are the Guardians, including Ramirez, against Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti, who's pitched to an 0-3 record, 10.97 ERA and 2.34 WHIP across his first three big-league starts. That sample also includes a 5.9 BB/9, offsetting the impressive 12.7 K/9 and 0.8 HR/9.
We're only banking on Ramirez getting in on the fun with at least one run driven in during a game Cleveland has a solid 4.4 projected run total. Ramirez already has an impressive 24 RBI in 29 games, largely the byproduct of his .292 average, .907 OPS and .380 wOBA with men on base.
Ramirez's typical spot in the middle of the order always gives him a high potential of RBI opportunities, and given the matchup Thursday to open the game, that should hold true. Then, Astros relievers have pitched to a 5.57 ERA and .363 wOBA this season, keeping Ramirez's outlook bright even when Arrighetti is out of the game.
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