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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 14 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week knocked out more starting quarterbacks, headlined by Trevor Lawrence. The constant roulette at the position across the NFL makes it difficult to project how an offense will perform. That's not ending either because 12 out of the 30 teams playing this week are starting a backup quarterback. It's the final week before fantasy playoffs begin in most leagues, making it an exciting time of year. The NFL continues to do strange things with the schedule. This time, it's having two Monday Night Football games occur simultaneously. For the last time this season, we have two teams on a bye, including the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders. It's not nearly as impactful as last week, but it still removes a handful of key contributors. There are also five divisional rematches along with the Bills and Chiefs meeting yet again.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice some players are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included in the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you conquered the combination of injuries and random boom performances to get the victory. Regardless of how Week 13 went, Week 14 is a chance for a fresh start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -2.0
Implied Total: Buccaneers (19.5) vs. Falcons (21.5)
Pace: Buccaneers (12th) vs. Falcons (8th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 12.4% Pass (18th), -17.3% Rush (27th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -0.8% Pass (23rd), -4.8% Rush (17th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 7.0% Pass (14th), -10.8% Rush (17th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 20.1% Pass (29th), -15.1% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Evans has had some huge games this year where he carries the offense, but none were more evident than last week. He caught seven (50%) of Baker Mayfield's completions for 162 yards (80%) and one touchdown (100%). Furthermore, he went over 1,000 receiving yards again, hitting that mark in each of his 10 NFL campaigns. Atlanta's cornerbacks, featuring A.J. Terrell, who is in concussion protocol, are talented, but there's no way you can fade Evans. Chris Godwin finished with zero receptions on three targets. He did manage a 19-yard touchdown run, but that's not likely to repeat, so he's on your bench.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Robinson didn't find quite as much room on the ground as expected, but the workload was there again with 21 touches for 79 scoreless yards. As we spoke about last week, the Buccaneers are banged up in terms of their run defenders, namely Jamel Dean and Devin White. They gave up over 100 yards and two scores to Chuba Hubbard. Therefore, Robinson ought to have a big day.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Pitts actually led the way in receiving last week, which was a promising sign. That equated to four grabs for 51 yards, but that's serviceable at tight end. Tampa Bay is a top-10 matchup for tight ends, allowing the seventh-most points to the position over the past six weeks. He's back on the radar as a streamer.
Drake London (WR, ATL)
London predictably struggled against the Jets and their elite secondary. You also can't fault him when Desmond Ridder completes just 12 passes. It's a much easier matchup this week, keeping him in the top 36.
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White kept his run of outstanding performances rolling with over 100 scrimmage yards and a trip to the end zone. He's become the king of the one-yard touchdown runs. After a string of easy matchups, he faces the Falcons, who rank second in EPA per rush allowed, 10th in run DVOA, and ninth in rushing yards per attempted allowed. He's still a top-15 back, but the spike weeks might be over.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
With White likely to be bottled up, they'll need to air it out to win. After leading from wire to wire last week, it'll be a more competitive contest, requiring a faster pace of play and more passing attempts. Mayfield remains a streaming option in a plus matchup.
Injuries:
None
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -7.5
Implied Total: Rams (16.25) vs. Ravens (23.75)
Pace: Rams (18th) vs. Ravens (30th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 21.7% Pass (14th), 25.3% Rush (1st)
Rams Off. DVOA: 21.8% Pass (13th), 0.3% Rush (8th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -28.2% Pass (1st), -17.4% Rush (4th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 8.5% Pass (17th), -4.4% Rush (21st)
WEATHER: It's expected to be a wet, rainy, and windy game in Baltimore. There's a strong chance it affects the passing attack and the overall scoring.
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
One of the struggles for Jackson from a fantasy perspective is that the Ravens have rarely been challenged in games. The last competitive contest they had was their loss to the Browns, and the backfield scored twice, plus the defense scored once. Before that, the Cardinals made a late comeback in Week 8 but the rushing attack had a hat trick of trips to the end zone. It's been since the blowout win against the Lions in Week 7 that we've had a great performance from Jackson. He still lands here because the Rams are now keeping pace with teams, forcing them to keep scoring, so hopefully, most of that comes from the arm or legs of Jackson, especially if there's poor weather.
Ravens RBs
One of the shifts in Week 12 was Keaton Mitchell taking over the lead role. Mitchell had more carries (9), targets (2), and total touches (11) than Gus Edwards. The gap wasn't massive, but it's a step in the right direction for the explosive rookie. If he can earn nine to 12 touches per game, then he's got a shot at top-24 numbers every week. The Rams make for a good matchup, and we know the Ravens will want to impose their will using their power run game. Mitchell deserves the nod as a top-20 back with Edwards not far behind.
Matchups We Hate:
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Higbee suffered a neck injury during the game but wasn't doing a whole lot before that. Evidently, he came crashing back to earth with two catches for 35 yards. Between the injury, weather, and minimal volume, it's best to look elsewhere.
UPDATE: Higbee has been ruled out.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
For multiple weeks, we wondered about the health of Stafford and the offense's desire to throw the ball in the red zone. He's been off the injury report and looks a lot better out there, not to mention he's thrown seven touchdowns in two games. Safe to say he checks both boxes. That's not to presume he'll keep finding the end zone with such frequency, but it does cause his stock to rise as a streamer. Baltimore is among the NFL's elite defenses and the weather looks very bad, so he's a bit riskier this week.
Other Matchups:
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
Williams just keeps tearing it up. He dominated the backfield touches with all but one rushing attempt and five targets, relegating Royce Freeman to a backup role with one carry. The matchup is very difficult, but that was the case against the Browns, who were a little banged up on defense, but still allowed him to total over 100 yards and find the end zone. He's a must-start at this point.
Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)
Nacua has been the better wide receiver for several weeks now, but that hadn't always meant his production was noteworthy. However, last week he took a deep pass over the middle 70 yards to the house en route to totaling over 100 receiving yards along with 34 yards on the ground. He's been on the injury report occasionally and was sidelined for a brief period against the Browns, but he's become the go-to target in the offense. Cooper Kupp took advantage of Nacua's absence by hauling in a few receptions while he was out before finding pay dirt with both on the field. He ended with six catches for 39 yards and a score. He's had fewer than 50 receiving yards in every outing but two this season. It's another tough matchup for this duo and the weather will be an issue, landing Nacua in the top 24 and Kupp in the top 36.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
The last time we saw Flowers, he showed off his versatility as a runner and receiver. He led the way with eight targets and scored on a long 37-yard touchdown run. Without Mark Andrews, we know the volume will be there. Plus, we've now seen a couple of promising performances. One thing that helps for the weather is that he catches shorter passes and sometimes runs the ball, earning him a spot in the top 24.
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL)
Likely didn't crush it without Mark Andrews against the Chargers, but four grabs for 40 yards on six targets is streamer-worthy. There's reason for optimism as well against the Rams, who are a top-10 matchup for tight ends. Plus he is capable of turning a small gain into a big play.
Injuries:
Tyler Higbee (neck)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Spread: Lions -3.5
Implied Total: Lions (23.25) vs. Bears (19.75)
Pace: Lions (16th) vs. Bears (31st)
Lions Off. DVOA: 26.9% Pass (9th), 8.6% Rush (4th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -4.2% Pass (25th), -2.9% Rush (15th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 6.2% Pass (13th), -15.6% Rush (7th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 13.3% Pass (25th), -14.9% Rush (11th)
WEATHER: It's expected to be a cold and moderately windy game, which could impact the passing attack.
Matchups We Love:
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
The rookie tight end had a day to remember in the Big Easy, hauling in all nine of his targets for 140 yards and a score. He single-handedly destroyed the Saints defense on their way to an easy win. He's got a shot to break the record for the most receptions by a rookie tight end (81), with an outside chance at the yards (1,076) and touchdowns (12) marks. We'll see how much closer he gets against the Bears in a rematch of their narrow shootout victory two weeks ago.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Thankfully St. Brown found the end zone because after LaPorta got his, there wasn't much left. It wasn't a marquee day, but if this is his floor, then sign me up. The Lions didn't need to throw much to win, so beyond those two, it was a rushing touchdown by Jameson Williams as the only thing worth mentioning. He and Josh Reynolds remain flex options with Williams the more intriguing receiver given his big-play potential.
David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Jahmyr Gibbs opened the game on fire, ripping off big runs, the last of which put them near the goal line. Unfortunately, Montgomery came in to plunge forward for the score as he often does. Furthermore, when they're trying to close out a win, it's Montgomery who will rack up the rushing attempts, resulting in 18 last week. The hope is that the Bears keep it close or even better, establish a lead. Chicago's defense is playing better since trading for Montez Sweat, but they're no match for Detroit's O-line, so Montgomery is a top-15 back with Gibbs in the top 24.
DJ Moore (WR, CHI)
The Chicago offense had one of the least inspiring wins in Week 12 against the Vikings, thanks to four field goals. The one consistency in the offense is Moore though, who came through with 11 receptions for 114 yards. He's been awesome with Justin Fields at the helm and there's no reason to move off him here.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields's saving grace will always be the rushing attempts, particularly the designed runs they scheme up for him. Despite two turnovers and no touchdowns, his 59 rushing yards provided a decent baseline of points. They'll need to find a way to finish drives, but the probability of scoring zero touchdowns is very low, especially considering the Lions have allowed an average of 30 points over the past four weeks, including 26 to Chicago two weeks ago. He stays in the top 10.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet isn't a particularly exciting selection at tight end, but he is the No. 2 receiving option behind Moore, so he's worth a look as a safer streamer with a lower ceiling.
Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI)
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Bears' win was the usage of Johnson. He played 75% of the snaps, saw 44% of the rushing attempts, and had a 14% target share. It did correlate with D'Onta Foreman's absence, which could be part of the explanation. That being said, this team is playing for the future, so Johnson may remain the starter ahead of Khalil Herbert and Foreman. He's an upside flex play against the Lions, whose defense has been getting shredded lately.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
As mentioned above, Goff only threw the ball 25 times, so he hit the 200-plus yard mark with two passing touchdowns but didn't give you a big week. They may be forced to air it out this week, but on the road, we typically see a lower output from Goff, so he remains a solid streamer with a lower ceiling.
Injuries:
None
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -2.0
Implied Total: Colts (21) vs. Bengals (23)
Pace: Colts (2nd) vs. Bengals (27th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 8.9% Pass (19th), 4.2% Rush (6th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 15.7% Pass (16th), -2.2% Rush (14th)
Colts Def. DVOA: -1.5% Pass (9th), -0.5% Rush (26th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 8.6% Pass (19th), 3.5% Rush (29th)
WEATHER: It's expected to be a cold and mildly windy game, but without rain, so the impact should be minimal.
Matchups We Love:
Zack Moss (RB, IND)
Moss was a true workhorse just as we saw earlier in the year. He played 94% of the snaps, accounted for all 19 RB rushing attempts, and had a 68% route participation. He also had seven carries inside the 10-yard line. Unfortunately, he failed to convert any of those and finished with 57 total yards. It was a tougher matchup on the ground, so it makes sense to put him right back out there against the Bengals.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman's excellence continued, turning 16 targets into 11 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. What was surprising was the involvement of Alec Pierce, who ran more routes, earned more targets, and totaled more yards than Josh Downs. We know he's a deep play threat, evidenced by an aDot of 25.5 yards, which seemed like a better fit with Anthony Richardson, but perhaps Gardner Minshew will start taking shots to him as well. Pittman is a top-15 wideout with Pierce and Downs as boom-bust flex options.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Speaking of making huge plays, Chase took a sideline grab 76 yards to the house. He also had 10 more receptions for 73 yards. It was a monster day that was hard to see coming with Jake Browning at the helm. The Colts have been better over the past six weeks against the passing attack, but much of that is because they played the Browns, Saints, Patriots, and Panthers during that stretch. Browning should be able to find success again, at least enough to support Chase. Having Tee Higgins back is beneficial to the offense and Browning, but he's still tough to trust until we see him play a full allotment of snaps and show a connection with Browning.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon also crushed his expectations against what has been a stout run defense in Jacksonville. He totaled 25 touches for 117 yards and two scores. Chase Brown played a season-high 15% of the snaps, but that was likely because they ran the ball 31 times and weren't going to give it all to Mixon. Brown failed to earn a target and get any goal-line work, so both of the high-value roles Mixon has remained intact, keeping him in the top 20.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND)
Minshew threw for 312 yards and two scores while Indianapolis hit the over in their contest again with 59 total points. Their defense is beatable and their offense airs it out over 35 times per game, playing at the second-fastest pace. There's a strong chance of another shootout here in Cincinnati, keeping Minshew in the streaming category.
Injuries:
Jonathan Taylor (thumb)
Tyler Boyd (ankle)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -3.0
Implied Total: Jaguars (15) vs. Browns (18)
Pace: Jaguars (20th) vs. Browns (13th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 24.3% Pass (11th), -13.4% Rush (24th)
Browns Off. DVOA: -10.5% Pass (28th), -7.3% Rush (20th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: -1.7% Pass (8th), -18.8% Rush (3rd)
Browns Def. DVOA: -19.5% Pass (2nd), -17.0% Rush (5th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have moderate wind with spotty showers, so the passing could take a hit.
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Jaguars Passing Attack
As we alluded to in the introduction, Trevor Lawrence sustained a high-ankle sprain, which should sideline him for multiple weeks. There are reports it wasn't severe, but that means more for him returning before the season ends, not this week. They'll hand the reigns over to C.J. Beathard, who's a veteran journeyman. He's competent as a passer, but it craters the upside of the offense, especially this week. Cleveland's defense got roasted for 22 and 36 points against the Broncos and Rams, respectively. However, those were road games out west. At home against a backup quarterback, they'll be rearing to go and could be healthier. To add insult to injury, the offense lost Christian Kirk for the remainder of the season. That leaves Calvin Ridley, who is volatile on a good day, Zay Jones, and Parker Washington at receiver with Evan Engram as the most likely beneficiary. Engram remains a top-12 tight end with Ridley, who will face Denzel Ward, and Washington, playing in the slot, as risky flex options.
UPDATE: Lawrence is going to give it a go. It's risky to start him and the offense will still have a tough challenge with his mobility limited, but it's better than Beathard.
Other Matchups:
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
It's going to be tough sledding for Etienne Jr. as well, but his stranglehold on the receiving role and goal-line work will keep him afloat. They're also more prone to hand him the rock with a backup QB. He stays in the top 24 with a decent floor, but a lower ceiling.
UPDATE: Etienne is good to go.
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
The Browns are tied for the league lead in rushing attempts per game at 32.5, but they were forced to abandon that plan because they trailed Los Angeles. It led to just 23 carries, split between Kareem Hunt, Ford, and Pierre Strong Jr. It's not great for Ford to have multiple other backs involved, but he was the only back to earn a target, which is where he scored, and he continues to see the most work. Jacksonville got gashed on Monday, so with a run-first approach in a very low-scoring game, Ford is a top-24 tailback.
Elijah Moore (WR, CLE)
The connection between Joe Flacco and Moore was aided by the injury to Amari Cooper, but there seems to be some merit to it. Moore finished with a 26% target share, but only half of them were catchable. His targets per route run of 28% is the highest of the year. It'd be nice to see more of those result in receptions, but he totaled 83 yards and appears to be the go-to option, particularly if Cooper, who is still in the concussion protocol, misses.
UPDATE: Cooper has cleared the concussion protocol and will be active on Sunday. It's not great for Moore. Additionally, Dorian Thompson-Robinson is cleared to play, but the Browns promoted Flacco from the practice squad, and are expected to start him.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
The player whose targets he stole was Njoku, finishing with just six of them and two catches. It also didn't help that Harrison Bryant was so involved, hauling in five passes for 49 yards and a score. The receptions are the fewest since Week 1 and the targets are the fewest since Week 5. It's concerning because the volume was about all he had going for him. With Bryant a factor, the weather looking bad, and Flacco more willing to throw downfield, Njoku is a risky streamer.
Injuries:
Trevor Lawrence (ankle)
Travis Etienne Jr. (ribs)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -6.0
Implied Total: Panthers (16.25) vs. Saints (22.25)
Pace: Panthers (11th) vs. Saints (10th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -24.5% Pass (30th), -16.6% Rush (26th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 6.2% Pass (21st), 1.7% Rush (11th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 9.2% Pass (20th), 11.1% Rush (32nd)
Saints Def. DVOA: 4.9% Pass (12th), -2.5% Rush (25th)
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara traded goal-line attempts with Taysom Hill, but in the end, it didn't matter. He scored twice, earned eight targets, and totaled over 100 yards. Next up, he gets the Panthers, which means he's got a shot to be the RB1 overall this week even with Jameis Winston, who doesn't tend to check it down as often as Derek Carr.
UPDATE: Carr practiced in full on Friday and is listed as questionable, so he technically has a shot to play. It seems risky given the multiple concussions, but the weekend will tell us more.
Taysom Hill (TE, NO)
Not only did Hill see goal-line work, resulting in a touchdown. He also carried the ball 13 times, caught two passes, and threw twice. He's operating as the RB2, which makes him a top-five tight end given the matchup on the ground, so long as he's active because he's missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Juwan Johnson had a tipped ball land in the hands of a Lions defender early and it was downhill from there. He's a bench at this point.
UPDATE: Hill has been ruled out while Johnson is good to go.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
The Panthers managed to stay competitive against the Buccaneers and put up 18 points, the most since Week 6. Additionally, the Tampa Bay defense is banged up, so that helped the effectiveness of their run game. They elected to ride Hubbard to the tune of 25 carries for 104 yards and two trips to the end zone. The Saints are giving up the 10th-most rushing yards per attempt over the last three weeks along with the third-most fantasy points to the RB position during that stretch. There is a risk for Hubbard if the game gets out of hand because he didn't earn a single target, but he's a solid flex option.
Jonathan Mingo (WR, CAR)
Mingo keeps showcasing his talent as one of the few bright spots on offense. He earned 10 targets, hauling six passes for 69 yards. He's worth a look as a flex option based on the uptick in his usage.
Chris Olave (WR, NO)
Olave managed to clear the concussion protocol within the week to suit up on game day. He went five for 119 with a combination of Carr and Winston at the helm. Carr sustained another concussion along with a back and shoulder injury. It's his second in the past month, so there's almost no chance he plays on Sunday. That's okay though because Winston has proven he can support Olave. It should be another day of success on the ground for the offense, so there's no one else here worth taking a shot on.
UPDATE: Olave missed Thursday and Friday's practice with an illness and is listed as questionable. He's expected to gut it out but at less than one hundred percent. Meanwhile, Rashid Shaheed has been ruled out.
Injuries:
Michael Thomas (knee)
Rashid Shaheed (thigh)
Kendre Miller (ankle)
Derek Carr (shoulder, rib, concussion)
Taysom Hill (foot/hand)
Juwan Johnson (quad)
Chris Olave (illness)
Houston Texans at New York Jets
Spread: Texans -3.5
Implied Total: Texans (18.25) vs. Jets (14.75)
Pace: Texans (9th) vs. Jets (6th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 37.3% Pass (4th), -21.8% Rush (30th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -27.6% Pass (32nd), -30.5% Rush (32nd)
Texans Def. DVOA: 10.1% Pass (21st), -14.2% Rush (13th)
Jets Def. DVOA: -12.1% Pass (4th), -13.1% Rush (14th)
WEATHER: This game now has a chance to avoid some of the rain and wind that was initially expected. There'll still be an impact on the passing attack and scoring, but perhaps not as much as anticipated.
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Texans RBs
After playing significantly fewer snaps than Devin Singletary in Week 12, Dameon Pierce made it an almost even split. More importantly, he out-touched him 15 to nine. Furthermore, Pierce got the goal-line carry. It's not a bad matchup, but it's difficult to know how the workload will be distributed. For now, they're both riskier flex options.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
In addition to dealing with poor quarterback play, Wilson is no longer dominating volume. He earned fewer targets than Tyler Conklin and Breece Hall with just one more than Xavier Gipson. It's going to be Zach Wilson at the helm, which is a slight upgrade, but between Houston's defense playing better and the possible weather, Wilson drops outside the top 20.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
We know the deal here with Hall. He will struggle to run the ball because the offensive line is bad and teams don't fear their passing attack, but he'll receive enough work as a receiver to salvage some value. He's averaging six receptions per game the past three weeks, so he remains a top-24 back with a high floor, especially if the dump-offs increase with the potential weather. He has missed practice all week, so we'll see what Friday brings.
UPDATE: Hall is active on Sunday.
Other Matchups:
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
Stroud entered the day without his starting tight end, Dalton Schultz, and lost his emerging young receiver, Tank Dell, to a season-ending injury. They managed to survive a late push from the Broncos thanks to their defense, but traveling to New York in bad weather is going to be another test for the passing attack without Dell. Stroud's still a top-12 signal-caller, but his ceiling takes a hit.
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
Collins went nuclear without Dell. His day was also aided by an injury to Patrick Surtain II. He accounted for 53% (9) of Stroud's completions, 70% (191) of his passing yards, and his only passing touchdown. Neither Noah Brown nor Robert Woods caught a pass while John Metchie III caught just one, which you'd expect to change moving forward. Collins will surely get Sauce Gardner in coverage, but he's hard to push outside of the top 20. Meanwhile, Brown, who had a couple of spike weeks before getting hurt, is an upside flex option with Woods and Metchie too risky given the matchup and weather.
UPDATE: After practicing in full on Thursday, Brown missed practice Friday, earning a questionable tag. He might end up being inactive on Sunday, which would push the value of Woods up.
Texans TE
Schultz missed their game last week, opening the door for Brevin Jordan to be the starter. He caught three passes for 65 yards as the second-most productive receiving option behind Collins. Schultz was downgraded to a DNP on Thursday, meaning there's a strong chance it's Jordan again, who would be an intriguing streamer with Stroud missing weapons.
UPDATE: Schultz has been ruled out as expected, setting Jordan up as a solid streamer.
Injuries:
Breece Hall (ankle)
Aaron Rodgers (Achilles)
Dalton Schultz (hamstring)
Noah Brown (knee)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Vikings -3.0
Implied Total: Vikings (21.5) vs. Raiders (18.5)
Pace: Vikings (7th) vs. Raiders (21st)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 16.7% Pass (15th), -21.4% Rush (29th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: -5.5% Pass (27th), -20.9% Rush (28th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -1.4% Pass (10th), -16.2% Rush (6th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 8.5% Pass (18th), -2.7% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
For those who survived the hiatus Jefferson took, you'll be thrilled to add one of the best receivers in fantasy just in time for the playoffs. The Vikings played it cautiously by holding him out in Week 12 to provide an extra two weeks of rest. He's practicing in full, so he should be all set to return. He'll be catching passes from Joshua Dobbs, so his No. 1 overall ceiling takes a hit, but there's only a handful of receivers to rank above him. After the way the offense looked against the Bears, it's not wise to throw Jordan Addison out there in this one. The best approach is to search for other options while we see how the offense functions with Jefferson on the field.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Jefferson's return will inevitably reduce the volume Hockenson was seeing, but it also increases scoring opportunities and takes away coverage, so it's not as significant a hit to Hockenson as it is to Addison. Plus, he's a tight end, so there are fewer players to choose from.
Matchups We Hate:
Joshua Dobbs (QB, MIN)
Dobbs played the worst game we've seen from him all season in Week 12 against the Bears, committing four turnovers in a 12-10 loss. He's been named the starter and will get the opportunity to play with Jefferson, so there's potential upside here, but it's not worth the risk with just two quarterbacks on a bye.
Other Matchups:
Vikings RBs
It'll be interesting to see how their pass rate over expectation changes, if at all, with Jefferson back. The duo of Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler have somewhat capped one another's value. We've seen the split shift from week to week, most recently in favor of Mattsion in Week 12. He projects to see the majority of the carries with Chandler mixing in more in the passing attack. It's a good matchup and Minnesota is a road favorite, so they're both flex options.
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
Las Vegas is also coming out of their bye week. We know Adams will earn sufficient targets and be consistent, but in Week 12, we had Jakobi Meyers also produce for the first time in a while with six catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. He's proven himself capable, especially earlier in the season, so in a below-average matchup he slots into the top 36.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Similar story for Jacobs in that the matchup isn't great. The last time he was in action, he broke off a 63-yard run to the house against Kansas City and more importantly had six targets, which was the most since Aidan O'Connell took over. Assuming he'll maintain that workhorse role, he's a top-15 back.
Injuries:
None
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -13.0
Implied Total: Seahawks (16.75) vs. 49ers (29.75)
Pace: Seahawks (4th) vs. 49ers (32nd)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 22.0% Pass (12th), -9.2% Rush (22nd)
49ers Off. DVOA: 66.6% Pass (1st), 14.2% Rush (3rd)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 13.9% Pass (26th), -8.2% Rush (19th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -14.0% Pass (3rd), -8.3% Rush (18th)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
One of the many divisional rematches here, except this time the Seahawks are a little healthier. Whether trailing or leading, it won't matter for McCaffrey, who can do it all.
UPDATE: Elijah Mitchell is doubtful to play, making Jordan Mason the backup. He could see some extra work if they blowout the Seahawks.
49ers WRs
Both wide receivers who had a hat trick of touchdowns in Week 13 are in this game. Deebo Samuel is one of them. They love leaning on Samuel, particularly when they're leading and can use his run-after-catch ability. The game script was unexpected, removing the need to air it out downfield to Brandon Aiyuk. It's hard to predict how competitive Seattle will make it, but Samuel is an awesome option against the zone coverage they deploy while Aiyuk is in the top 24.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Purdy has been roasting defenses since they got back Samuel and Trent Williams. He carved up Philly, leading them on six consecutive touchdown drives. The only way it doesn't work out is if they dominate on the ground again, but he remains a top-10 signal caller.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle has been on a hot streak with 68-plus yards in five of the last six outings, averaging 86 yards per game during that stretch. The only time he missed that mark was against Seattle, who is typically a good matchup for tight ends. It likely has more to do with the positive game script they were in than the matchup, so he jumps back into the top 10.
Seahawks WRs
One of the more surprising stat lines of the week was D.K. Metcalf's 6/134/3 against the Cowboys. He entered the week with one trip to the end zone in the past six games and hadn't cleared 100 receiving yards since Week 3. It wasn't as if his volume changed either. His eight targets were fewer than the prior three contests. It's most likely an outlier performance, but showcasing that high of a ceiling does make it worth considering him above a lot of other wideouts. He's in the top 24 despite the fact he'll draw coverage from Charvarius Ward. Tyler Lockett failed to get in on the action, even though the Seahawks scored 35 points. Jaxon Smith-Njigba bested him in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. It seems time to make the shift to the rookie as the No. 2 most valuable wideout in Seattle. He's in the top 36 with Lockett in the flex range.
Seahawks RB
The backfield injuries have been plentiful over the past few weeks. First Kenneth Walker III went down to an oblique injury, thrusting Zach Charbonnet into a starting role. However, he suffered a knee injury last week, putting his status in doubt. They both practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday, so one or both may be active. If they're both out, then DeeJay Dallas would be the next man up. Unfortunately for this group, the 49ers are not a good matchup, especially with a nagging injury. We'll see what Friday's practice report tells us, but whoever is the starter would be a flex option.
UPDATE: Both Charbonnet and Walker practiced in full on Friday and are listed as questionable. It seems like both will be active, which would make Walker the starter.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Smith was chucking it the way he did in 2022, hitting receivers downfield for big plays. He totaled four touchdowns and over 300 yards on his way to a shocking finish. He appears to have his confidence back, making him a strong streaming option.
UPDATE: Smith has been listed as questionable and is now reported to have a potential multi-week injury. His absence would have a massive impact on the offense.
Injuries:
Kenneth Walker III (oblique)
Zach Charbonnet (knee)
Geno Smith (groin)
Elijah Mitchell (knee)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -1.0
Implied Total: Bills (24) vs. Chiefs (25)
Pace: Bills (25th) vs. Chiefs (23rd)
Bills Off. DVOA: 44.4% Pass (2nd), 1.0% Rush (7th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 35.8% Pass (5th), -1.3% Rush (10th)
Bills Def. DVOA: 10.2% Pass (22nd), -11.7% Rush (16th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -8.3% Pass (5th), 2.7% Rush (28th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
The bye week was kind to the Bills because the majority of the teams they're chasing lost. Some of them even lost their starting quarterback. They'll be fighting their playoff lives in Arrowhead. Allen has a history of shining for fantasy but falling short on the field against the Chiefs.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs is an obvious play, but it could be a good spot for Gabe Davis, who we know has a massive ceiling. Diggs will occupy L'Jarius Sneed in coverage, opening up space for Davis and potentially Khalil Shakir. The issue for Shakir is that it looks like Dawson Knox will be back, which might result in Buffalo playing fewer three wide receiver sets.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
Cook played a major role as a receiver in Week 12, hauling in six passes for 57 yards. He struggled on the ground, but most do against Philly. The Chiefs are susceptible to the run, ranking 31st in EPA per rush allowed, 28th in rush defense DVOA, and 28th in rushing yards per attempt allowed. Cook has a chance to go over 100 yards and find the end zone in a great matchup with lots of scoring upside.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Without Jerick McKinnon, Pacheco has finished as the RB4 and RB8 in the last two weeks. They're leaning on their rushing attack more than previous years and he's proving capable as a pass-catcher. It's a good matchup in a high-scoring contest, but he's yet to practice this week because of a shoulder injury. Assuming he plays, he's a top-15 back with McKinnon active and in the top 12 if he's out, but we'll need to monitor reports into the weekend.
UPDATE: Pacheco has been ruled out while McKinnon is good to go. McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will share the workload. Andy Reid named Edwards-Helaire the starter, making both players flex options in a potential shootout with McKinnon as the preferred choice for his receiving role.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
It hasn't been utter dominance from the tight end king this year. He's scored just once in the past five weeks and had been held to under 60 yards in three of those games. You're still going to start him, but expectations might need to be tempered somewhat as his fall from grace appears to be happening right before our eyes.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Speaking of fall from grace, Mahomes continues to produce average numbers. Last week against the Packers, he threw for 210 yards and one touchdown. Similar to Kelce, fading him in a potential shootout against a familiar foe is risky, but the ceiling doesn't seem to be there to the same extent it once was. He's in the top 10 with at least a handful of players ahead of him this week.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
Rice had another decent game with eight receptions for 64 yards. He earned more targets than Kelce and had just 17 fewer yards. It speaks more to the lack of offense than it does to a productive outing, but it's reassuring to see him as a focal point. He may never play the number of snaps or run the number of routes we wish he would, but when he's on the field, he's being targeted, evidenced by his 29% targets per route run, which is the seventh-highest among receivers. Furthermore, he sits 10th in yards per route run at 2.67. He's worth taking a shot on as a top-36 wideout.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
The major news here is that Knox is on track to be active from injured reserve. It's a big blow for Kincaid, who has been crushing it with Knox out. It's hard to imagine Kincaid fading to the backup role after what he's shown them, but it'll be interesting to see how often he's on the field and if they use more two tight end sets as they did earlier in the year. He remains a top-12 option.
Injuries:
Mecole Hardman Jr. (thumb)
Isiah Pacheco (shoulder)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -2.5
Implied Total: Broncos (20.75) vs. Chargers (23.25)
Pace: Broncos (24th) vs. Chargers (1st)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 13.9% Pass (17th), -1.8% Rush (12th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 29.8% Pass (7th), -15.2% Rush (25th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 18.7% Pass (28th), 7.6% Rush (31st)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 14.4% Pass (27th), -3.9% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
This is a big game for both teams. The Chargers are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and salvage some dignity after barely beating the Patriots, who scored zero points. Meanwhile, the Broncos are right in the thick of it for a Wild Card spot. Williams' final output wasn't as high as you'd hope, but that was largely because Russell Wilson stole a lot of work and committed too many turnovers. The usage was there, accounting for 13 of the 19 (68%) RB carries while hauling in three passes. Despite pitching a shootout last week, Los Angeles allowed 148 rushing yards. Their defense is bad, which sets Williams up perfectly as a top-24 tailback this week.
UPDATE: Perine is listed as questionable. If he's out, then Williams gets a boost as a receiver.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
Wilson played great for nearly three quarters and then tossed interceptions on three of their final four drives, including one in the end zone on the final play of the game. He did score on the ground again, using his legs 10 times for 44 yards. It's adding some additional fantasy points to help compensate for his lower passing yard totals. There's reason to remain optimistic against the Chargers, whose defense has been abysmal as of late. He's a streaming candidate.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Sutton did what Sutton does, find pay dirt. His two catches went for 45 and 32 yards, but relying on him to score is a solid bet these days. It's a good matchup for Jerry Jeudy in the slot, but he's failed to prove himself as reliable, so it's best to lean on Sutton as a top-30 receiver and avoid Jeudy if possible.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
It was an ugly day for Herbert and Co., who generated 241 yards of offense and six points against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Yes, it was a poor weather game, but that doesn't excuse the ineptitude of this squad. Returning home will be a positive, but without healthy, capable weapons, it's going to be hard against Denver, who has been the eighth-toughest matchup in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position over the last six weeks. Unless Joshua Palmer, whose practice window has been opened, is back, Herbert drops into the streamer tier.
UPDATE: Palmer will miss another week.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen was questionable to play last week, so that may be part of why he didn't hit his usual numbers. His ceiling is too high to move away from, but lining up across from Patrick Surtain II will be tough. Quentin Johnston was the No. 2 receiver with five catches for 52 yards on seven targets. He's not going to pay dividends for the first-round draft capital they spent any time soon, but he's showing some improvement and warrants consideration as an upside flex option with Palmer out again.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
The matchup combined with the name value should catapult Ekeler to the top of the list this week. Unfortunately, that's not the case. It was a new low last week, finishing dead-last in rushing yards over expectation added at -2.48 while totaling just 27 yards on 16 touches. It's going to be really hard to look at players you drafted late or grabbed off waivers and throw them out there instead, but in many situations that's the right move. He's no longer a must-start.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
Both Everett and Donald Parham Jr. played over 60% of the snaps for the first time last week. The team is searching for weapons, so keeping both on the field at the same time makes sense. It enabled Everett to catch four passes for 44 yards. He's a potential streamer in a great matchup against the Broncos.
Injuries:
Greg Dulcich (leg)
Samaje Perine (knee)
Joshua Palmer (knee)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -3.5
Implied Total: Eagles (24) vs. Cowboys (27.5)
Pace: Eagles (29th) vs. Cowboys (22nd)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 25.1% Pass (10th), 6.1% Rush (5th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 30.5% Pass (6th), -7.3% Rush (19th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 13.0% Pass (24th), -15.5% Rush (8th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -2.6% Pass (7th), -15.3% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
After surviving a murderer's row of opponents, including the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills, the Eagles fell flat against the 49ers. It's difficult to maintain the level of discipline, energy, and execution against the caliber of teams they played for four straight weeks. While the Cowboys are back up on the docket, you can bet Philly will be completely locked in for this one with the No. 1 seed and the division crown on the line. Hurts had an injury scare, but quickly returned to the game. He's been managing a knee issue for several weeks, but it hasn't affected his performance.
Eagles WRs
Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were great as usual. The only wrinkle here is that Dallas Goedert is nearing a return with his eyes set on this week. Given the huge over/under and it being Goedert's first game back, it's not enough to move off of Smith this week, but it's worth monitoring.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott was forced to keep slinging it and keep scoring for his team to come out on top of the 76-point fireworks show last Thursday. It was an impressive win, but this game is even more important for the reasons mentioned above. They nearly knocked off their division rivals last time, but made some mistakes down the stretch that cost them a victory. You can expect these two QBs to finish among the best when the week is done.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Lamb is on another level right now that only the most elite players in the game stack up to. Matching up against the Eagles' porous pass defense should keep that momentum rolling. It's not just him though. Brandin Cooks has found the end zone in three of the past four outings with 70-plus yards twice. He's also set up for a big week.
Matchups We Hate:
D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
Swift has been outside the top 24 in three of the past four weeks. The exception was the rainy game in Kansas City where he found pay dirt. Jalen Hurts keeps stealing touchdowns on the ground, plus Kenneth Gainwell has seen his receiving role grow. On such a high-powered offense with a great O-line, there's reason to be optimistic, but he's not someone to view as an elite back for fantasy right now given the committee he's stuck in.
Other Matchups:
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Pollard's been on an excellent three-week run, finding the end zone and racking up 80-plus yards. He's also been a focal point of the passing attack, with 13 receptions. It's a tough matchup, but the offense will move the ball, setting him up for opportunities near the goal line. Plus, he'll be utilized as an outlet when there's pressure on Prescott.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Ferguson had his second-best game of the year last week with six receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown. He gets another awesome matchup this week against Philly, locking him into the top 10.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
All signs are that Goedert will be back this week. He's practiced in full and was reportedly close to suiting up in Week 13. There's some added risk because his snaps might be limited, but there's also plenty of upside in this offense with the potential for lots of points on the board.
Injuries:
None
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -13.0
Implied Total: Titans (16.75) vs. Dolphins (29.75)
Pace: Titans (28th) vs. Dolphins (26th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 5.5% Pass (22nd), -2.0% Rush (13th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 41.6% Pass (3rd), 17.2% Rush (2nd)
Titans Def. DVOA: 22.3% Pass (30th), -19.9% Rush (1st)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 2.5% Pass (11th), -5.5% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
It was another easy win for Miami, who keeps throttling bad teams. Cue the Titans, who are 4-8 with a subpar roster. The main drawback for Tagovailoa is they don't need him late in the game. They trounce their opponent in the first three quarters, the defense creates turnovers, and then they pound the rock to close it out. He's a great bet for 250 yards and two touchdowns, but hitting his ceiling has happened primarily in comebacks or shootouts. The one caveat to that this week is the Titans are easier to throw on, so they may keep airing it out.
Dolphins WRs
Tyreek Hill moved 157 yards closer to his goal of 2,000. He also got wide open in the secondary twice, speaking about how the defense played man coverage on him in his interview. When the drive ends that way, no one else can contribute, including Jaylen Waddle, whose day was mediocre. The matchup should encourage more passing, so it's not the week to fade Waddle.
Dolphins RBs
Despite the tougher matchup, this duo is locked in. Raheem Mostert was the clear starter in the first half, but De'Von Achane made his mark late with two trips to the end zone and over 100 scrimmage yards. Achane and Waddle are both fantastic options in a game they should win handily with Achane as the preferred choice.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry repeated his Week 12 performance with 21 carries for 102 yards and two scores. He also exited with a head injury but did not enter the concussion protocol. Unfortunately, the run of easy opponents and bad defenses comes to an end. The game script will almost certainly favor Tyjae Spears, making Henry a lot tougher to rely on. Spears earned six targets against the Colts, which could easily happen again this week. Henry falls outside the top 20 with Spears as an intriguing flex option.
Titans Passing Attack
Will Levis found DeAndre Hopkins to take the lead late in the game and played well in overtime, but came up just short. Miami's defense has been deadly since the return of Jalen Ramsey, which is problematic for Hopkins. Treylon Burks was officially active last week, but only played 12% of the snaps. The one player who is re-emerging is their tight end, Chigoziem Okonkwo. They'll need to throw to attempt a comeback, so the volume should be there, but the ceiling is lower with minimal scoring upside. Hopkins drops outside the top 24 and Okonkwo moves into flex territory.
Injuries:
Salvon Ahmed (foot)
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Spread: Packers -6.5
Implied Total: Packers (21.5) vs. Giants (15)
Pace: Packers (14th) vs. Giants (15th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 29.5% Pass (8th), -11.8% Rush (23rd)
Giants Off. DVOA: -26.9% Pass (31st), -25.4% Rush (31st)
Packers Def. DVOA: 7.8% Pass (15th), -3.8% Rush (23rd)
Giants Def. DVOA: 8.2% Pass (16th), 3.6% Rush (30th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind but no rain, so there isn't cause for concern.
Matchups We Love:
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Love is playing superbly over his past three games, beating the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs. He has eight touchdowns and zero interceptions with a passer rating over 90-plus in each of their last two contests. New York's defense has made some strides, but he's a top-12 quarterback.
Packers WRs
Christian Watson went off against the Chiefs with seven grabs for 71 yards and two scores. Unfortunately, he suffered another hamstring injury, which we know was an issue earlier in the year. It seems like he'll miss this week as he's yet to practice. It moves Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs into the top 30 as the primary options with Dontayvion Wicks, who has flashed at times, into the flex range.
UPDATE: Watson has been ruled out as expected. Reeds and Doubs remain solid options at receiver.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants Passing Attack
Tyrod Taylor is working his way back from injury, but the team has named Tommy Devito their starter for this week. It's not great news for the receiving options, or the offense as a whole. The Packers have improved on defense, led by Rashan Gary up front and Jaire Alexander in the back end. It poses an issue for the combination of Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt, and Wan'Dale Robinson. Robinson plays in the slot, so he avoids Alexander, but he's rarely produced this season. The best bet is on Hyatt, who popped off for 109 yards on five catches in Week 12 as an ascending rookie.
Other Matchups:
AJ Dillon (RB, GB)
Dillon continues to give you good but great production with 87 total yards last week. We reviewed his underlying metrics in the Week 13 article, which are very poor. The matchup and game script are there for him to give you top-24 numbers again, assuming Aaron Jones is out.
UPDATE: Jones is listed as questionable. He would become the lead back if active as a flex option with Dillon in a similar range.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
It remains a sad state of affairs for Barkley, who is extremely talented but has minimal support. It's a juicy matchup and he is involved as a receiver, so there's little chance he suffers from a blowout loss, which is what you should expect in this one. He remains a volume-based top-24 back.
Injuries:
Aaron Jones (knee)
Luke Musgrave (kidney)
Christian Watson (hamstring)
AJ Dillon (groin)
Jayden Reed (chest)
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