December 15, 2015

Ed Gorelik analyzes Week 15 playoff sleepers available on 2015 fantasy football waiver wires. These NFL running backs (RBs), wide receivers (WRs), tight ends (TEs) and quarterbacks (QBs) are fantasy football sleepers.

Waiver Wire Adds for Week Fifteen

Week 14 of the NFL season ends with the Patriots putting down the Texans and any hopes that Brian Hoyer had of a revenge game.

Week 14 also saw Cam Newton continue to stuff the MVP ballot box, Russell Wilson ruin a Jimmy Clausen-led team for the second time this year, along with Todd Gurley and Eddie Lacy's return to their places as dominant RB1s.

Below are some waiver wire pickups and sleepers for Week 15 who can have a potential impact for your teams. My piece won't cover all waiver wire adds and targets each week, as there are just too many with all the league types out there, but I'll be highlighting and prioritizing the biggest impact players. Additionally, be sure to check out many more great RotoBaller articles and waiver wire analysis pieces at each position throughout the week, including risers/fallers, deeper league sleepers, rankings and more.

Week 15 Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ)

43% Owned on Fleaflicker

If you missed the Fitzpatrick train, you're probably out of luck when it comes to the waiver QBs for the rest of the year. Fitzpatrick won't be facing another top quality passing defense for the rest of the fantasy season, and has one of the top receiving duos in football. He's likely the top streaming option for the rest of the year.

Tyrod Taylor (QB, KC)

47% Owned on Fleaflicker

Tyrod's been written about plenty this year, so all that's left to say is that he's got the Redskins and Cowboys as his final two games. Inconsistent in floor, but always offering a QB1 ceiling, he's still available in over half of leagues for the fantasy playoffs - just as Sammy Watkins has begun to come on for him.

Alex Smith (QB, KC)

48% Owned on Fleaflicker

Who does Alex Smith face in his last two games? Baltimore and Cleveland. Next week in particular, he faces Baltimore on the road. I know what you're thinking: "You want me to take Alex Smith on the road? This is fantasy advice?"

Well let me tell you, Alex Smith on the road has somehow been better than Alex Smith at home this year. He throws for a higher YPA (7.31 vs 7.81), has a higher completion percentage, throws more often (166 vs 233), and has a better TD/INT rate (7-3 vs 8-1). Basically, Alex Smith on the road against a horrible Baltimore defense at home looks pretty good - especially considering that Baltimore has only allowed one team less than 15 points to their QB when playing on their own grounds, and that was against the lowly Rams.

So somehow, Alex Smith on the road is better than Alex Smith at home, and the Ravens at home haven't been any good on defense. If you're in a league that plays until week 17, Alex Smith's final game is against Oakland - so he might be good for you there too.

Other Quarterback Options: 

• CHI QB Jay Cutler - 50% owned - Cutler's ability to start for you this week is going to depend entirely on whether or not the Vikings continue to miss players like Harrison Smith, Linval Joseph, and Anthony Barr for another week. If they're playing, Cutler becomes a fringe starter - if not, he might be able to sneak into the high QB2s.
• DEN QB Brock Osweiler - 28% Owned - Osweiler will have a date on the road with the Steelers, a team that can only be beat by matching their offensive output. With the need to throw there, Osweiler is a high risk/high reward player for this week only.

More Options:  Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, AJ McCarron, Johnny Manziel

Week 15 Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups

Tim Hightower (RB, NO)

18% owned on Fleaflicker

Had the Mark Ingram news been made sooner, Hightower would have been on last week's list. Hightower isn't much of a skilled player as he plodded his way to 85 yards on 28 carries - but with that kind of volume, who really cares? However, the Saints' remaining playoff schedule isn't good for an opposing running back. The Lions and Jaguars are two teams that have not had trouble suffocating weak run games (like the Saints) - but at least both are at home, where the Saints have been significantly better this year. He's a must own in every league, and a likely RB2 for the remaining fantasy playoffs.

Denard Robinson (RB, JAX)

26% Owned on Fleaflicker

T.J. Yeldon left Week 14 with a left knee sprain, and in his place came Denard Robinson. The timetable for Yeldon's return has not been set yet (as of Monday morning) - but with so few games remaining, if you get just one game out of Robinson it's likely worth it. He already broke out last year when given the opportunity to - he had strong fantasy performances in all games where had 15+ carries, and that was on a much worse Jaguars team. His next two weeks would be against the Falcons and Saints, with the Falcons coming to Jacksonville while on a downward plunge.

Denard Robinson on a 31 yard gain, showing all the things that made everyone like him.

Bryce Brown (RB, SEA)

2% Owned in Fleaflicker

If you miss out on Harris, might as well take a shot at Brown. Just re-signed by the Seahawks, maybe Brown re-enters the conversation as a potential lead back. What do you have to lose?

James White (RB, NE)

36% Owned on Fleaflicker

There's still a difficult split happening between James White and Brandon Bolden, and despite Bolden out-touching White 14-to-1 on the ground, it's White that's showing more significant fantasy value. Maybe that's because he actually gets used in the red zone over Bolden. With Blount suffering a hip injury (whose severity is also currently undisclosed), White becomes a big must-have as the more valuable part of this offense.

Shaun Draughn (RB, SF)

43% Owned in Fleaflicker

Somehow Shaun Draughn has managed to find a startable FLEX floor in nearly any kind of league. He's seeing a regular 40 yards in the air and 40 yards on the ground, and has become one of Blaine Gabbert's most used targets. In PPR leagues he's even better, with a 14 point floor. It's time to start respecting Shaun Draughn's fantasy value for the rest of 2015.

Other Running Back Options: 

• TEN RB Antonio Andrews - 43% owned - Andrews is seeing the ball just 12 times a game, but that's more than most people on this part of the list. He hasn't done particularly great with the carries he's had this season and has a tough schedule coming up. He's a fill-in if you're in need.
• DET RB Theo Riddick - 29% owned - Riddick's just an every week feature here at this point, continuing to show PPR value even in weeks where his yardage is weak. He's a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues, and should be owned in all of them.
• DAL RB Robert Turbin - 20% owned - Turbin operates as the backup behind perennially injured Darren McFadden. He's worth handcuffing if you're a McFadden owner.
• NYJ RB Bilal Powell - 27% owned - Powell's another player that's just not that talented and getting the most out of poor defensive play. Against the Titans and Giants, defensive miscues and poor competition allowed him to get chunky gains. He's not short on effort, but he's not worth much more than an Ivory handcuff outside of PPR leagues.
• NE RB Brandon Bolden - 27% owned - Bolden had the most touches of any NE running back after Blount went down, but seems like mostly a floor play since he gets taken out in the RZ.
• PIT RB Fitzgerald Toussaint - 0% owned - He doesn't have any actual value, but he's now the #2 behind DeAngelo Williams. You know if Williams goes down, he'll be looking at a solid RB2 workload and scoring opportunity. Worth handcuffing at this point.
• TB RB Charles Sims - 58% owned - Overrated by the fantasy community, Sims is a decent back playing behind a far better back. He offers some low-end PPR flex value and minimal standard value outside of a handcuff.
• MIA RB Jay Ajayi - 32% owned - Ajayi is still looking pretty good on the field but is just another handcuff to add to your bench right now.
• ARI RB Kerwynn Williams - 2% Owned - Weird add here, but Arians has been very weird with his running back usage all year long. Williams might find a role for himself as a rusher if Arians feels like using him that way. A long shot add, and the likely handcuff to David Johnson.

More Options: Rod Smith, Dexter McCluster, Jamize Olawale, Orleans Darkwa, Stevan Ridley, Jonathan Grimes, Zurlon Tipton, Chris Polk, Juwan Thompson,

Week 15 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups

DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)

28% Owned on Fleaflicker

DeVante Parker has yet to play at time of writing, but I'm going to assume he'll put up a performance that doesn't change my opinion of his value. Parker's been gaining ground in this offense despite it's anemic outputs, and is the most talented player they really have in their WRs. It's unlikely for him to fully break out in his final three games, but he might be able to provide you a FLEX.

Kamar Aiken (WR, BAL)

40% Owned on Fleaflicker

Kamar Aiken continues to find a strong floor every week despite the QB carousel in Baltimore right now. At this point, he's solidified his place as a weekly FLEX option and should be owned, at the very least, as depth for your playoff team.

Markus Wheaton (WR, PIT)

45% Owned on Fleaflicker

Over the last three weeks, Wheaton has managed to find a real role in this offense between the massive space created by Martavis Bryant and Antonio Brown. The Steelers will be facing a difficult Broncos matchup this weekend, but Wheaton might be the biggest beneficiary as Chris Harris Jr likely lines up against Antonio Brown and Aqib Talib takes his chances against Martavis Bryant. That's going to leave Wheaton against a #3 corner, and we've already seen what happens when Wheaton's left alone against weak coverage while the other two get throttled (look at the Seattle game). Wheaton offers upside this week as a starter, but is a solid bench option - especially if you own either of Brown or Bryant, as he's seeming like a strong potential handcuff.

Willie Snead (WR, NO)

38% Owned on Fleaflicker

His stock dropped far after a string of inconsistency, but Snead has a good shot at providing value two weeks in a row. Brandin Cooks will likely be seeing a lot of Darius Slay this weekend, an up and coming corner, and that coverage might be enough to give Snead a back-to-back performance like he's had once before. I'm not going to tell you to drop anything special for him, but if you're in need of a FLEX, Snead might have your back for Week 15.

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)

28% Owned on Fleaflicker

Tyler Lockett is coming off of two back-to-back weeks with seven targets, and has already shown major play-making potential all season long. With Russell Wilson entering a completely new level of passing abilities, Lockett might be able to benefit. Especially since Rawls and Lynch's injuries are going to force more of the game onto Wilson's very talented arm. Lockett is worth a bench spot just in case it's real.

Ted Ginn Jr. (WR, CAR)

37% Owned on Fleaflicker

It's almost unreal to imagine a season where Ted Ginn and Doug Baldwin could both be viable starters, but that's where we're at right now. Both players are sitting on touchdown and target heavy streaks, and need to be on your bench at the very least.

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, TEN)

40% Owned on Fleaflicker

DGB is still a major talent suffering from a lot of his own rookie issues, along with his team's general issues. There isn't a ton of value to be found in him this year, but there's just enough that he might be able to somehow be a low-end FLEX in some deeper leagues. I know that's not optimistic in any way, but it's the truth of where he, and the team, is currently at.

Other Wide Receiver Options: 

• KC WR Albert Wilson - 3% owned - A lot of people don't know who Albert Wilson is - but for those that do know, they know that he's been a very hyped dynasty WR since entering the league. Wilson's at the mercy of Alex Smith's insecurities with aggression, but he's a talent.
• SD WR Malcom Floyd - 25% owned - Floyd isn't what he used to be - but if Stevie Johnson keeps missing time, someone has to catch passes and Floyd is the guy that Rivers has always been fond of throwing to.
• BAL WR Jeremy Butler - 1% owned - A personal favorite, Butler's a guy I compare to a mini-Brandon Marshall. He's nowhere near as valuable - but his role has been growing in this offense every week, and the team does what it can to give him the opportunity to be in space and get YAC. He's a PPR option, mainly.
• CAR WR Devin Funchess - 25% owned - Funchess has shown to be more touchdown dependent than reliable. It's likely that he's not seeing realistic value this year for most people, but still might be able to find some in deeper leagues.
• ARI WR J.J. Nelson - 7% owned - A role player as a deep threat in an offense that loves to go deep, Nelson has volatile weekly value that's really dependent on the health of the wide receivers in front of him.
• DAL WR Cole Beasley - 11% owned - Beasley has been the only player to see any sort of increased value with Matt Cassel at helm for the Cowboys.

More Options: Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Bryan Walters, Nelson Agholor, Lance Moore, Nick Williams, Kenny Stills, Josh Huff, Cody Latimer, Seth Roberts

Week 15 Tight End Waiver Wire Pickups

Zach Miller (TE, CHI)

35% owned on Fleaflicker

Martellus Bennett heading to IR last week shot Miller's value way up, and he's been on a tear of touchdowns with five in the last six games. With Marquess Wilson and Bennett both out of the way, Miller's next in line for targets behind Alshon Jeffery and making the most of it.

Eric Ebron (TE, DET)

38% owned on Fleaflicker

I had Ebron up here for weeks as he failed to impress, but perhaps another culprit was at hand. Looking at Ebron's game splits: in games without Brandon Pettigrew, Ebron saw nearly double his regular fantasy output (from 5.1 to 9.8 average points per game). Pettigrew will be out for the remainder of the year and that might bring Ebron's value up again. He faces the Saints next week.

Other Tight End Options: 

• NYG TE Will Tye - 6% owned - More of a floor play than a ceiling, Tye hasn't been anything special but offers something in deeper leagues as a fill-in.
• TB TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins - 55% owned - The return of ASJ has not gone as expected. Whether that's because of him recovering from injury or because it was all a flash to begin with, who knows. The upside still exists, and Vincent Jackson's injury should help him get more targets, but there isn't much time left.
• HOU TE Ryan Griffin - 2% owned - Griffin had a drop-filled Sunday night, but he still saw tons of targets and nearly made some very difficult catches. Griffin has some promising potential - but is a deeper add, mainly.

More Options: Coby Fleener, Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, Luke Willson, Maxx Williams

Week 15 Defense (D/ST) Waiver Wire Pickups

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

34% Owned on Fleaflicker

I believed in the Bucs last week and they failed me, as Brees put up one of his better road performances. That's why I don't like trusting divisional matchups when it comes to defenses. However, this week the Bucs get to face the Rams. That's a team led entirely by their future star running back Todd Gurley going up against a team with a top 5 DVOA against RBs. The Rams have scored 18 points or less in six of their 11 games so far this year, including in five of their last six games. I'm hoping believing in the Bucs defense doesn't make me look stupid twice.

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