RADIO
Rob evaluates the biggest fantasy football quarterback winners from the 2024 NFL Draft and identifies which passers saw their fantasy value increase this offseason with an emphasis from the draft.
For every action, there is an equal but opposite reaction. It’s Isaac Newton’s third law of motion: If this, then that. Newton probably didn’t know it at the time, but this same law of motion can be attributed to fantasy football, too. If this team drafts this player, then this player loses value. It’s pretty simple stuff, but now that free agency and the NFL Draft are over, we have a more complete idea of this offseason’s winners and losers.
For this series, I’ll discuss the biggest winners from our four fantasy-relevant positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Every action or non-action has a consequence, and we’ll go through each position to determine whose value increased the most this offseason, focusing particularly on the results from the NFL Draft.
First up will be the all-important quarterback position. It wasn’t all that long ago when everyone thought waiting on the quarterback position was the best strategy; however, with the video game numbers the top players at this position are putting up, opinions have shifted. The quarterback position in fantasy football has increased significantly. Who are some of the summer’s biggest quarterback winners? Let’s discuss.
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Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
No. 1 and No. 2 receivers are Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. Allen finished first in targets and receptions, fourth in yards, and ninth in touchdowns per game last season among receivers. Moore finished 16th in targets, 14th in receptions, 12th in yards, and 17th in touchdowns per game last season among receivers.
The Bears Drafted Rome Odunze ninth overall in this year’s NFL Draft. He had 92 receptions, 1,640 yards, and 13 touchdowns in his final season at Washington. Cole Kmet, his No. 1 tight end, had the seventh-most receptions, 10th-most targets, ninth-most yards, and was tied for the third-most touchdowns among tight ends. D'Andre Swift, his No. 1 running back, finished 11th in scrimmage yards among running backs and fifth in rushing yards.
Chicago’s offensive line finished 19th in PFF’s final offensive line rankings from the 2023 season. However, Teven Jenkins missed five games, Braxton Jones missed six, and Nate Davis missed six. Collectively, these three starters missed a combined full season’s worth of games (17). Assuming better health, this unit should perform better this upcoming season. Williams’ landing spot in the 1.01 is arguably the best situation any No. 1 overall pick in the history of the NFL has ever had.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
The 33rd Team ranks Kevin O’Connell as the seventh-best play-caller entering the 2024 NFL season. Minnesota’s offensive line returns four starters from last season. This group ranked as the 12th-best unit, according to PFF’s final 2023 rankings.
Justin Jefferson is his No. 1 receiver. Since entering the league in 2020, Jefferson has led all players in yards per game. Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are his No. 2 and No. 3 weapons. Addison finished his rookie season with 70 receptions, 911 yards, and 10 touchdowns despite catching passes from backup quarterbacks for over half the season. Hockenson finished second in targets, second in receptions, fourth in yards, and tied for seventh in touchdowns among tight ends last year.
Minnesota signed Aaron Jones this offseason. On a per-touch basis, he plays like a top-10 running back. McCarthy landed on a team with arguably a top-10 play-caller, a top-10 offensive line, a top-10 running back, and a top-five pass-catcher group. That’s a major win.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh added two Day-1 starters to its offensive line in the NFL Draft: No. 20 overall pick Troy Fautanu out of Washington and No. 51 overall pick Zach Frazier out of West Virginia. Broderick Jones will likely shift to left tackle, allowing Fautanu to start at right tackle, effectively solving Pittsburgh's two biggest needs along the offensive line.
The Steelers drafted Roman Wilson, a rookie receiver out of Michigan, at No. 84, which will help offset the loss of Diontae Johnson. Pittsburgh also drafted guard Mason McCormick at No. 119 overall for more interior depth along its offensive line. Pittsburgh’s biggest holes on offense were at left tackle, center, and their No. 2 receiver spot. They filled all of those spots with their first three draft picks. Pittsburgh significantly improved its offensive line and added a quality No. 2 receiver behind George Pickens. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is healthy entering the new season.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
New York’s offensive line finished 31st in PFF’s final 2023 offensive line rankings. This offseason, they signed Tyron Smith, left tackle from the Cowboys. The Jets traded for Morgan Moses, a right tackle from Baltimore. They also signed John Simpson, a former guard from Baltimore. With the No. 11 overall pick, the Jets selected Olu Fashanu, a left tackle out of Penn State. In free agency, the Jets found three Day 1 starters along the offensive line and drafted more depth at tackle in case Smith or Moses gets hurt.
Their No. 2 receiver last season was Allen Lazard or Xavier Gipson. They signed Mike Williams in free agency and drafted Malachi Corley at No. 65 overall from Western Kentucky. New York’s biggest holes were at left tackle, right tackle, guard, and their No. 2 receiver spot. They added four offensive linemen and two receivers to fill these four spots. Rodgers’ offensive line should be much, much better in 2024 than it was in 2023. The team added depth as well. They also added two receivers behind Garrett Wilson, giving Rodgers options to throw to.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Rumors were flying that the Giants might trade up to take Drake Maye or draft J.J. McCarthy outright. They didn’t. The fact that Jones remains the starter is a major win for him. Instead of drafting Jones’ replacement, New York drafted superstar receiver Malik Nabers at No. 6 overall. Jones gets a legit alpha receiver who is a true No. 1 guy.
In free agency, New York signed Aaron Stinnie, Jon Runyan, and Jermaine Eluemunor. All three players should be expected to start from Day 1 along their offensive line. Last season, the Giants finished 30th in PFF’s offensive line rankings. Jones remains the starter, was given a legit No. 1 receiver, and his offensive line was completely revamped.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Carolina hired Dave Canales as its head coach. He was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last season and helped revitalize Baker Mayfield’s career. Before that, he was in Seattle, where he helped Geno Smith’s career resurgence. He’s a young, offensive mind.
The Panthers traded for Diontae Johnson in free agency, significantly improving their receiver group. They selected wide receiver Xavier Legette out of South Carolina, No. 32 overall. He had 71 catches, 1,255 yards, and seven touchdowns last season. The team also selected tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders out of Texas at No. 101 overall. Over the past two seasons, he has had 99 catches, 1,295 yards, and seven touchdowns.
Carolina’s offensive line ranked 29th in PFF’s offensive line rankings. They signed Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt to two of the most expensive guard contracts this offseason, giving them a combined $90 million in guarantees. Carolina also drafted running back Jonathon Brooks out of Texas at No. 46. Brooks tore his ACL in November, but not before racking up 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns in 11 games. Young received a major upgrade in terms of coaching and scheme. Johnson and Legette significantly upgraded his receiving room. Brooks significantly upgraded his running back group, and Lewis and Hunt significantly upgraded his offensive line.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Tennessee hired the Bengals’ former offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan. Levis' new head coach is a younger, offensive-minded head coach. Callahan also brought his father, Bill Callahan, to Tennessee with him. Bill is widely regarded as one of the best offensive line coaches in the NFL and had previously been with Cleveland.
Tennessee’s offensive line ranked 32nd in PFF’s final offensive line rankings. Bill Callahan will help with that. The Titans signed Lloyd Cushenberry III out of Denver to play center. They also drafted JC Latham, a tackle out of Alabama, at No. 7 overall. The additions of Latham, Cushenberry, and Callahan should pay huge dividends in 2024 for Levis.
The Titans also signed Calvin Ridley away from their divisional rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ridley had 76 catches, 1,016 yards, and eight touchdowns last season. Their No. 2 leading receiver last season was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who had 370 yards and three touchdowns. Ridley is a massive, massive improvement. Tennessee lost Derrick Henry, but signed Tony Pollard to help replace him some of his production with Tyjae Spears.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes’ starting receivers in Week 1 of 2023 were Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson or Kadarius Toney. That’s a major yikes. For Week 1 of the 2024 season, Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice (suspension pending), and Xavier Worthy will be the starters. Kansas City traded up in the first round to select Worthy at No. 28 overall.
In 12 games last season, left tackle Donovan Smith gave up 42 pressures, 33 hurries, and seven quarterback hits. He also committed nine penalties. He was one of the worst starting left tackles in the NFL. With the No. 64 overall pick, the Chiefs selected Kingsley Suamataia, a left tackle out of BYU.
Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders
Much like Daniel Jones, Minshew remains the favorite to start under center for the Las Vegas Raiders. They did not draft a quarterback, securing his status as their starter for the 2024 season. There were rumors they were trying to trade up or might even select a quarterback at No. 13 overall but chose to do neither. That’s a major win for Minshew.
Las Vegas added an offensive lineman with its second- and third-round picks. It selected center/guard Jackson Powers-Johnson out of Oregon in the second and tackle Delmar Glaze out of Maryland in the third. In the first round, the Raiders selected generational tight end Brock Bowers out of Georgia. Minshew will now throw to Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, the newly signed Michael Gallup, and 2023 third-rounder Tre Tucker. It’s a very strong group.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Arizona didn’t do as much offensively as some other teams on this list. Still, it did select Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 overall, giving Murray a legitimate and true No. 1 receiver. This alone makes Murray a big offseason winner.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers offensive line last year was dreadful. They signed Brandon Parker, a tackle from Las Vegas, this offseason. They also added Dominick Puni in the third round and Jarrett Kingston in the sixth round. After trade rumors circulated for Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, both now appear set to stay in San Francisco for 2024. That’s a major win for Purdy. In addition to keeping Aiyuk and Samuel, the team drafted first-round receiver Ricky Pearsall out of Florida and added another receiver in the fourth round, Jacob Cowing, out of Arizona. San Francisco kept both Aiyuk and Samuel, but it added more quality offensive line depth and more weapons for Purdy.
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