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Scott Engel looks at some recent fantasy football ADP trends in FFPC drafts. See how the high-stakes experts are drafting and who they are targeting, avoiding.
All fantasy players can learn a lot from FFPC drafters by studying the Average Draft Position (ADP) Reports. For the purposes of this article, I focus on the latest FFPC Fantasy Football ADPs for analysis as of August 20, 2023 -- leagues which feature head-to-head play and some similarities to mainstream fantasy football leagues.
While many fantasy football players have just started to plan for their annual drafts, high-stakes competitors have already been in drafting action for several weeks. The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC), a premier high-stakes platform for those seeking a significant challenge, is hosting league drafts regularly in all types of formats.
Do keep in mind that the FFPC is a TE premium format, as tight ends are awarded 1.5 points for a reception. Also, high-stakes competitors often tend to be more aggressive on players they like and will push them up the boards in attempts to make potential league-winning picks.
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Fantasy Football ADP Reports: The Latest FFPC Insights
Bijan Robinson (Average Draft Position: 8.5): The Falcons rookie is the third running back off the boards, one spot behind Austin Ekeler overall. High-stakes players gun for upside and will not hesitate to take a shot on a guy who was drafted No. 8 overall in an era where the RB position is devalued. The Falcons were second in the NFL in run/pass ratio last season and should be heavily committed to the run again.
Saquon Barkley (13.2): He is being picked early in the second round of many drafts, and I like him a lot in his current range. Saquon Barkley is coming off his best season as a rusher and he has the incentive of a one-year deal, so I see him as an early-round value for where he is being drafted. As much as I like Robinson, I have Barkley ranked one spot ahead of him, third at RB.
T.J. Hockenson (31.9): T.J. Hockenson is the third TE being taken in FFPC drafts, where players from the position obviously get pushed up the board because of TE premium scoring. I would not be surprised if Hockenson outperforms Mark Andrews (ADP of 17.4) this season. Andrews is facing more competition for targets in Baltimore than ever before, and Hockenson may be the No. 2 pass-catcher for Kirk Cousins in 2023.
You can get Hockenson over a round later than Andrews. He is one of the best options at the thinnest position in fantasy football.
Mike Williams (57.5): The ADP is fair for Mike Williams if you like him, but he has never been dependable. He is a regular injury risk, and Williams has failed to catch more than five TD passes in three of the past four seasons. Exciting rookie Quentin Johnston may cut into his numbers, too.
James Cook (65.5): Preseason buzz has certainly boosted the ADP of James Cook, who is being taken ahead of Miles Sanders and Cam Akers. He was drafted to be an ideal fit for the Buffalo offense last year, as Cook is a dual threat who gives the Bills something that was missing in their offense. He is a true receiving threat out of the backfield.
But Damien Harris and Josh Allen can still steal a good amount of TD chances. I am not taking Cook over guys like Sanders and Akers, who are projected to see a larger portion of their team’s workloads and rushing TD opportunities. I do like Cook, but I am slightly behind the herd on excitement.
Michael Pittman Jr. (81.1): You may be able to land Michael Pittman Jr. as a third WR when attempting to utilize a Zero RB approach. He caught 99 balls last season despite the Colts’ QB issues, and Pittman will be a trusted target for a very talented rookie QB. Pittman has a good fantasy WR3 floor with some WR2 promise if Anthony Richardson exceeds expectations as a passer.
Brandin Cooks (89.4): He is a good WR3 value in drafts, as Brandin Cooks is actually being drafted later than boom-or-bust artist Gabe Davis. Cooks is the perfect guy to slide into Dallas’ No. 2 WR spot, which was an area of concern last season. He is working in his best QB situation since 2017 when Tom Brady was the QB Cooks was paired with in New England.
We have seen Cooks perform admirably while dealing with tough passing environments, and he will be a reliable playmaker for Dak Prescott while challenging defenses at every level.
Anthony Richardson (118.1): The ADP is surely going to rise after he was named the official starter for the Colts, which was no surprise. Anthony Richardson should be drafted as a top-10 fantasy QB because his tremendous rushing promise gives him a top-five fantasy QB ceiling.
The Colts are showing a lot of confidence in the rookie already. The confirmation that he will be the No. 1 QB should be a signal from the team to you that there is real potential for him to come through with an impressive debut campaign in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa (119.1): I do not expect the ADP to move for Tua Tagovailoa, yet he also has a top-five upside for this season. He is a perfect fit for the Miami offense. Tagovailoa may be a system QB, yet he is ideal for the Dolphins’ system. He works with the best WR pairing in the NFL. If Tagovailoa can play close to a full season, he will be a very good value play for those who wait a little longer to draft their QB.
Allen Lazard (136.9): Even in the late rounds, I am not drafting Allen Lazard. He did not take advantage of any chances to emerge as a real No. 2 WR for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, and now the new Jets QB is slightly past his prime. The Jets lack a true No. 2 WR heading into a season with massive expectations.
Mecole Hardman Jr. has an ADP of 336.6 and I like him to possibly outproduce Lazard fantasy-wise. Hardman said he signed with the Jets because they will expand his route tree and no longer use him as the gadget guy he was in Kansas City.
Geno Smith (142.5): This ADP does seem disrespectful on the surface, but also demonstrates that FFPC players will be patient at QB if they don’t land one of the prime options early on. Geno Smith finished as QB5 last year and the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba now gives him the best WR trio in the NFL (please do not tell me you think Tyler Boyd is going to be better than Smith-Njigba).
For those who voice concerns that Smith seemed to slow down later in the year, an improved defense, better depth at RB for support, and the addition of Smith-Njigba are all factors that will ease pressure on him and allow the Seahawks' second-year starter to operate more comfortably.
Jalin Hyatt (196.1): FFPC players were still apparently taking a wait-and-see approach on Jalin Hyatt despite him generating exciting camp clips. He is one of my favorite later-round picks. Hyatt is actually being drafted after some kickers and defenses. After Hyatt caught a 33-yard TD in a preseason game on Friday, he is going to start moving up higher on draft boards.
Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.
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