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The only surprising thing about Mark Ingram breaking out last year as one of the better running backs in the league is that it didn’t happen until his fourth season. Going all the way back to his days at Alabama, Ingram showed himself to be a talented runner who could rise to the top echelon if he was given the right opportunity. At least that's what the Saints hoped for when they drafted him at the back end of the 2011 first round.
Unfortunately, Ingram was placed in a crowded Saints’ backfield and averaged less than 120 carries per season over his first three years. The lack of carries made it hard for him to showcase his talents and many feared that his skills would never be properly utilized while he played for the Saints. That all changed in 2014, as Ingram was finally allowed to take on the bulk of carries and put together a fantastic season that should have fantasy owners excited for his potential to officially jump into the conversation of elite running backs.
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Too many fans and experts have remained interested in Spiller because of his “potential” and big play ability, ignoring the fact that Spiller has faced a steady decline over the past few years. Spiller could not even average over four yards per carry last season, and committed the ultimate running back sin of rushing for a grand total of ZERO TOUCHDOWNS. Spiller will likely be taking the pass catching role and being given a small number of carries, and none of those carries will happen at the goal line. Ingram is the clear number one running back in New Orleans, and he will continue to put up numbers that do not give Spiller a chance to share the backfield with him.
Ingram will not only avoid a decline next year, but will actually be able to put together an even stronger season in 2015 due to an increase of carries. Why will Ingram see more carries next season? Because the decline of Drew Brees will allow for the Saints to try to establish a more balanced attack than they have had in several years. Brees struggled to find his usual groove in 2014, resulting a four year low in yards and touchdowns. Pair this with the loss of Jimmy Graham and it is very likely that Brees’ numbers will dip even further in 2015.
The decline of Brees times perfectly with Ingram’s ascent, as the Saints will enter into a more balanced offense. The run game will become essential for Brees to continue to be able to perform at a high level, which equals more carries for Ingram. Ingram only averaged 17.4 carries per game last year, and there is no reason to think he could not handle 20-25 carries per game for a full season slate.
There is nothing harder in fantasy than being able to find good running backs for your roster, and so any smart owner must be able to recognize underrated runners who will likely be ignored early in most drafts. There might not be a better running back sleeper than Mark Ingram. Most fans have inexplicably forgot his quietly solid season, and remembering his name on draft day could cause you to have the absolute steal of the draft. Ingram is a remarkable talent, and will become one of the primary focuses of the Saints’ offense next season due to a team-changing offseason. Last season finally gave us a glimpse into the potential of Ingram as a top running back, and next season Ingram will go a step further and officially take his place as a top ten running back for years to come.
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