RADIO
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
With the FA Cup semi-finals taking place this weekend, we are left with just eight EPL fixtures. And with two of the current top-5 not playing and another two facing each other, FPL managers will have to dig deep this week to fill out their lineups as we round the corner toward the finishing line this season.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
Friday, April 21st, 2023
Arsenal (-525) vs Southampton (+1400) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 4 - 1 Southampton
Arsenal comes into this week's game having dropped points in back-to-back games, leading 2-0 in both. They'll be pleased to get back home where they've won their last four scoring 15 goals in those games. Southampton's finding themselves cut adrift of the teams above them after picking up just two points from their last six games and conceding two or more in four of their last five.
Arsenal's attacking quartet remains in the upper echelons of FPL options. Bukayo Saka's penalty miss last weekend means he's failed to have a goal involvement in his last three appearances (two starts), his longest drought of the season. Gabriel Martinelli has three assists and a goal in his last three games, Martin Ødegaard has two goal involvements in his last three games and Gabriel Jesus has four goals in three starts since returning from injury.
Another option is defender Ben White who has two goals and two assists in his last six appearances (five starts). He only had two assists in his first 24 starts this season so if you fancy the league leaders to keep their first clean sheet in five games, targeting White this week provides an opportunity for a big points haul. I'm avoiding Southampton entirely.
Saturday, April 22nd, 2023
Fulham (+135) vs Leeds United (+195) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 2 - 1 Leeds United
Fulham ended their five-game winless run (and four-game losing streak) last weekend at Everton. The three goals scored last weekend was the first time they had scored more than two in a game since Boxing Day. Leeds find themselves in serious trouble having lost their last two games 5-1 and 6-1. The 60 goals conceded this season is the most in the league and the nine points they've picked up on their travels are tied for the second-fewest.
Aleksandar Mitrović's suspension leaves Fulham without a true goalscorer and Andreas Pereira remains their only outfield player with 100+ points. Harrison Reed has two goal involvements in his last three games and at £4.3M, is a solid differential play this week. Luis Sinisterra has two goals in three games and is the only Leeds player I'd have any interest in rostering this week but he's only a play if I'm chasing in my leagues with just 0.3% rostership.
Liverpool (-550) vs Nottingham Forest (+1200) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 4 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Liverpool probably has too much ground to make up to finish in the top-4 but their 6-1 win on Monday has at least given them an outside shot. They've taken 31 points from their 14 home games and only the top-2 have scored more at home than Liverpool (36). Forest are winless in ten games and picked up just three points in that run. Their five goals away from home (15 games) is the fewest in the league.
Forest can be written off for FPL purposes this week but Liverpool possesses plenty. Trent Alexander-Arnold has three assists in his last two games and ties the lead among defenders with seven assists this season. Mo Salah has five goals in his last four home games and four in his last four games. He's tied with Gabriel Martinelli as the highest points-scoring midfielder (180).
Cody Gakpo ended his four-game drought on Monday with a goal and an assist while Diogo Jota scored his first (and second) goal of the season as well as bagging an assist last time out. The 16 points scored by Jota were tied for the most of any player for the gameweek. I'd be comfortable playing any three Liverpool players this weekend and they should provide plenty of FPL points.
Crystal Palace (+105) vs Everton (+280) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 0 Everton
Palace's back-to-back-to-back wins since Roy Hodgson returned as the manager have all but secured them Premier League football for next season. It's their first three-game winning streak this season and the nine goals they've scored in this spell account for 29% of their total goals this season. Everton find themselves out of the relegation zone only on goal difference and since Sean Dyche took over, they've picked up just two points from their five away games.
There are no Everton players I'd be looking at this week while Palace features prominently in the latter part of this article. One additional player does present an interesting choice and that's Michael Olise. Olise has ten goal involvements this season and notched three assists in their 5-1 win at Leeds a fortnight ago. Olise did go six games without a goal involvement before that so is more of a dart throw if you're playing catch-up.
Leicester City (+145) vs Wolves (+195) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 2 Wolves
Leicester's appointment of Dean Smith as manager until the end of the season didn't get an immediate response as they lost 3-1 to Manchester City and it's now just one point from their last nine games for Leicester. Wolves will be aiming to win three straight league games for the first time this season and that should be enough to ensure they avoid relegation this season. They've not kept a clean sheet on their travels since gameweek five (12 games) but have scored in four of their last five away games.
Leicester City's only two FPL viable options are James Maddison and Harvey Barnes (both 113 points this season). Barnes is a doubt due to a hamstring injury so not someone I'd want to risk and Maddison has gone four games without a goal involvement so is far from a sure thing this weekend. Wolves lack of a regular goalscorer or a settled starting XI means I don't have any confidence in playing someone this weekend and I'd be fine with fading this game completely.
Brentford (+150) vs Aston Villa (+185) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 1 Aston Villa
After 28 games, Brentford had lost just four games. They've now lost their last three and are winless in their last five games. They have scored in 14 of their 15 home games with Arsenal the only team to keep a clean sheet and Newcastle became only the second team to beat them away a fortnight ago. Villa's in the midst of a five-game winning streak and are unbeaten in their last eight games. They've scored in 18 consecutive EPL games.
Both teams have some interesting FPL options. Brentford's Ivan Toney is the third-highest points-scoring striker this season with 162 points. In his last ten games, he's alternated scoring with blanking so after failing to score last week, by that logic he'll score this weekend. Strike partner Bryan Mbuemo has gone ten games without a goal but does have three assists in that time while midfielder Mathias Jensen has 11 goal involvements this season, seven of which have come at home.
Villa's Ollie Watkins is the fourth-highest points-scoring striker this season (155) and has 11 goals and three assists in his last 12 games, including three goal involvements last weekend. Alex Moreno looks secured as Villa's first-choice left-back having started the last seven games and he's picked up three assists in his nine starts while scoring 56 points in 13 games (nine starts). Two other Villa players feature later on.
Sunday, April 23rd, 2023
Newcastle United (-120) vs Tottenham (+310) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Tottenham
Newcastle will look to bounce back from their 3-0 defeat at Aston Villa. The loss ended their five-game winning streak and was only the second time this season they'd conceded more than twice in a game. They've only conceded nine goals in 14 home games, with Liverpool and Manchester City accounting for five of them. Tottenham suffered a damaging defeat at home to Bournemouth and will feel they have to win this game if they are to finish in the top-4. If they're tied late in the game, expect the visitors to push for a win.
Kieran Trippier's seven assists this season is tied for the most among all defenders and he's facing a former team so has the 'revenge game' narrative going for him. Alexander Isak has five goals in his last six games (five starts), while top scorer Miguel Almirón (11 goals) returned from injury to come off the bench last weekend for his first appearance since gameweek 27. I expect him to start this week and all three of these Newcastle players are ones I'd be considering in FPL.
Tottenham's Harry Kane remains their one 'must start' FPL option and despite their disappointing season, he has 23 goals and six assists still. If you roster Kane, you start him. Ivan Perišić has assists in back-to-back games and is the other defender tied on seven for the season. Son Heung-min has scored in consecutive games for the first time this season and with four goal involvements in his last five games, finally appears to be justifying his £11.6M price tag. I'd be comfortable starting all three this week, although Kane remains the only definite starter.
Bournemouth (+185) vs West Ham United (+155) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 - 2 West Ham United
Bournemouth last-minute win at Tottenham was their third victory in four games and saw them leapfrog this weekend's opponents in the league table. They've only kept two clean sheets in their last 11 home games. West Ham's come-from-behind 2-2 draw against Arsenal means they've lost just once in five EPL games. But they've picked up just nine points (eight goals) from their 14 away games.
Bournemouth's Philip Billing has had a solid season and he's their leading scorer this season with seven. I also like Dominic Solanke this weekend following his one-goal and two-assist performance last weekend. He's started the last ten games and tallied six goal involvements while also having an expected goals (xG) total of 3.1 in his last four games.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals and both teams to score).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Arsenal 4 – 1 Southampton | Arsenal -525 | o2.5 -200 | Yes +125 |
| Fulham 2 – 1 Leeds United | Fulham +135 | o2.5 -115 | Yes -155 |
| Liverpool 4 – 0 Notts Forest | Liverpool -550 | o2.5 -240 | No -145 |
| Crystal Palace 2 – 0 Everton | Palace +105 | u2.5 -185 | No -130 |
| Leicester 1 – 2 Wolves | Wolves +195 | o2.5 +110 | Yes -125 |
| Brentford 1 – 1 Aston Villa | Draw +235 | u2.5 -125 | Yes -140 |
| Newcastle 2 – 1 Tottenham | Newcastle -120 | o2.5 -125 | Yes -140 |
| Bournemouth 2 – 2 West Ham | Draw +230 | o2.5 +110 | Yes -125 |
| Season totals | 31/85 | 51/85 | 36/85 |
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.
Stack the D
Palace's main attraction will be featured shortly and I've mentioned Olise as a dart throw. But if you didn't want to roll the dice with Olise, playing a couple of Palace defenders (or 'keeper Sam Johnstone) is something I'd be strongly considering this weekend.
Only Nottingham Forest (five) has scored fewer away goals than Everton (eight) this season and blanked in eight of their last 11, including three of the five since Sean Dyche took charge. Despite their struggles before Roy Hodgson's appointment, Palace has only conceded four goals in their last six home games, not conceding more than one in any of them.
Unloved nuggets
Jacob Ramsey has been on fire lately, yet still finds himself on just 1.4% of FPL teams. He's scored twice and tallied three assists in his last five games, scoring a total of 36 points. He picked up the midfield trifecta last weekend (a goal, an assist, and a clean sheet) and could have had a pair of assists and a brace himself if it wasn't for the woodwork. His form has coincided with Villa's and I'd be looking to maximize it by starting him this weekend.
Avoid the trap
Although I'm high on Villa's attacking players, I'm fading most of their defense. That includes Tyrone Mings, who is on 11.5% of FPL teams. As mentioned, only Arsenal has kept a clean sheet at Brentford this season and despite six clean sheets in their last eight games, I don't see Villa keeping one this weekend. That leaves Mings without much of a route to a solid fantasy haul, especially as he hasn't scored this season and isn't much of a threat at set pieces.
For the watchlist
Kelechi Iheanacho and Jamie Vardy played 45 minutes each last weekend (with Vardy starting) and Iheanacho scored against his former club. Both have shown a propensity to score goals in the past and I'll be interested to see if Dean Smith can get either of them functioning again given Leicester has a few tasty matchups left this season.
Lock of the week
Eberechi Eze has three goals and an assist in the three games since Roy Hodgson took over. During the 2020/21 season when Hodgson was in charge, Eze tallied 125 FPL points (despite averaging 67 minutes per game) so the veteran manager seems to get the best out of him. Without a true out-and-out striker, Palace will rely on their attacking midfielders to provide goals and Eze is primed to continue his hot form this weekend.
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
