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The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
There were 45 goals scored on Matchday 23, which helped us to bag another parlay and a second straight winning week. We have another full slate of games over three days. Next week begins to see the games in hand played and more lopsided gameweeks. Something worth monitoring in advance for FPL purposes.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Saturday, February 10, 2024
Manchester City (-525) vs. Everton (+1200) - 7:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 – 0 Everton
City made it five straight league wins since returning from the World Club Championship. They've scored three goals in four of those five games (scoring two in the other). Everton drew for a third straight league game but has now slipped into the relegation zone having not won in their last six EPL fixtures. Everton's two goals against Tottenham ended a five-game streak of not scoring more than one in a game.
City's defense hasn't been great with only five clean sheets this season. But they keep scoring plenty of goals and this weekend shouldn't be any different. As with all Manchester City games, the odds aren't good. Over 2.5 goals looks like the best value as I can't trust City to keep a clean sheet right now.
Fantasy Player Pick: Erling Haaland
Haaland returned to the starting XI for the first time since Matchday 15. While he didn't find the net himself, he got the assist for Phil Foden's third against Brentford and had 0.76 xG (expected goals) himself. Despite missing five league games, no one has scored more league goals than Haaland. He scored in both games against Everton last season and this feels like the game he begins a long goal-scoring streak with.
Erling Haaland has scored 14 goals from 17.64(xG) in the Premier League this season - an underperformance of 3.64(xG).
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) February 7, 2024
Fulham (+140) vs. Bournemouth (+180) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Fulham 1 – 1 Bournemouth
Fulham's won just one of their last seven EPL games, which came against title challengers Arsenal. They've blanked in five of those games and that comes after scoring five goals in back-to-back games. Since beating Fulham, Bournemouth's picked up just two points from their last four games. They've not kept a clean sheet in that time and have only kept one on their travels this season (11 games).
Both teams are struggling for form and a draw looks on the cards. Neither side has a strong enough defense to back keeping a clean sheet, so 'both teams to score' looks like being the best play.
Fantasy Player Pick: Rodrigo Muniz
The absence of Raúl Jiménez has left Fulham searching for goals. Muniz opened his EPL account for Fulham last weekend and has looked like he could be the answer to Fulham's lack of goals. In his last five EPL appearances (three starts), Muniz has had 11 shots, averaging a shot every 25 minutes. The volume has been there and Bournemouth has allowed 67 shots in their last five away games. Muniz is a great value play in DFS.
Liverpool (-650) vs. Burnley (+1300) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 1 Burnley
Liverpool lost for only the second time this season, but has yet to lose at Anfield and has a league-best 29 points (11 games) at home. No team has scored more home goals than Liverpool (30) while they also boast the fewest home goals conceded (nine). Burnley taking a point after trailing 2-0 shows they are still battling. Only eight teams have conceded fewer away goals than Burnley (20), so they shouldn't get walloped this weekend.
While Liverpool has the best defensive record in the league, they've kept just one clean sheet in their last five home games. Burnley's scored in six of their last seven away games, so with the odds heavily in favor of a Liverpool win, taking over 2.5 goals seems optimal. Assuming Liverpool wins and both teams score, that will come in and it also safeguards us in the event of a comfortable Liverpool home win by three or more goals to nil.
Fantasy Player Pick: Trent Alexander-Arnold
Alexander-Arnold is one of the most creative players in the league. Although he only has four assists this season, his 95 shot-creating actions are the fifth most in the entire EPL. That's coming from the right-back position. The emergence of Conor Bradley might force Liverpool to move Alexander-Arnold into midfield more frequently as they need his attacking output, which could help in FPL. His defensive play is still very much under scrutiny.
😤 Of the 107 players in Europe’s top five leagues to have attempted 60+ tackles so far this season, Trent Alexander-Arnold has the worst success rate (38.6%) pic.twitter.com/U0q7IvqM4F
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 7, 2024
Luton Town (-135) vs. Sheffield United (+360) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Luton Town 2 – 0 Sheffield United
No one saw Luton scoring four goals at Newcastle but that made it eight goals in two games and 32 this season. That's more than Manchester United. They've taken 12 points from a possible 18, which has pulled them out of the relegation zone. Sheffield United's latest humiliating loss was one that leaves them almost certain to get relegated. The 59 goals they've conceded are the most in EPL history after 23 games.
Luton's overall form has been good, including a 3-2 win in the reverse fixture on Matchday 19. Luton's scored in each of their last 10 EPL games and all but one home game (11 games) this season. Although they have only picked up 11 points at home, no side has beaten them by more than one goal. And they've faced eight of the current top 10 at home. It's difficult to look beyond a home win at these odds.
Fantasy Player Pick: Alfie Doughty
Doughty continues to impress and picked up a seventh assist in the league last weekend. That's the third most among all defenders and only Kieran Trippier has more goal involvements among all defenders. With favorable home games and a double gameweek on the horizon, Doughty should be on more than the 5.4% of FPL rosters he currently finds himself on.
Six returns in a row, and a Double Gameweek 25 coming up 👀
Is Alfie Doughty going under the radar as a points-scoring defensive option?#FPL pic.twitter.com/dzUyOWB5BL
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 7, 2024
Tottenham Hotspur (-120) vs. Brighton (+275) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 4 – 2 Brighton
Tottenham continues to leak goals away from home. They've now conceded two or more in eight of their 12 away games. It hasn't been much better at home with no clean sheets in their last seven home matches, but they have won the last four. Brighton won only their fourth game in the league since Matchday 6. They also ended a three-game goal-less streak, which started after they beat Saturday's opponent 4-2.
Tottenham's home games have averaged 3.45 goals this season. Brighton's away games have averaged 3.54 goals this season. The odds reflect this, so I'm backing Tottenham to win as my favorite play. Tottenham has won eight of their 11 home games while Brighton's only won three of their 11 away games and only one of their last nine. They beat a poor Crystal Palace side last week and that's not enough to convince me that their form is back.
Fantasy Player Pick: Richarlison
As predicted last week, Richarlison returned to haunt his former club. While his brace wasn't enough to win the game, it made it 10 goals in his last nine EPL games. Tottenham should welcome back captain Son Heung-min to the team following South Korea's exit in the Asian Cup. He may not start, but Richarlison has been finding the net without him. He should do so again this weekend.
Owned by just 16.6% of #FPL managers and at a competitive £7.2m price...
What are the arguments against owning Richarlison right now? 🐦 pic.twitter.com/7FyCQ59Z1c
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 7, 2024
Wolves (+120) vs. Brentford (+220) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Wolves 3 – 2 Brentford
Wolves have won four of their last six EPL games with their only defeat in that time coming via a 97th minute goal. Despite having a goal-less draw in those six games, Wolves still scored 16 goals. Brentford has lost seven of their last eight league games and 10 of their last 12. They've scored in six consecutive games, but also conceded at least two in those matches.
Gary O’Neil is on course to deliver Wolves’ best goals-per-game season in the top division for 60 years, having inherited what was left of the Premier League’s lowest scorers.
On how he has transformed Wolves in front of goal by coaching not spending. https://t.co/eFaSPgdDG7
— Adam Bate (@ghostgoal) February 6, 2024
Wolves won the reverse fixture 4-1. Their 0-0 draw with Brighton was the only time in their last seven games in which there have been fewer than three goals. Brentford's last six games have seen three or more goals and while both teams will more than likely score, I'd rather take the better odds on there being more than two goals scored in this contest.
Fantasy Player Pick: Pedro Neto
While Matheus Cunha rightly got the plaudits for his hat trick last weekend, Neto's performance shouldn't go unnoticed. After missing nine games through injury, Neto has now started Wolves' last three EPL games, scoring one and getting an assist in the last two. Although he's only started 13 league games, he's second in assists (10) and leads all midfielders in the category. You will not find a better midfield option at his price point (£5.7m).
Nottingham Forest (+245) vs. Newcastle United (+105) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 2 Newcastle United
Three games without a win for Forest has left them perilously close to the relegation zone. They could find themselves in the bottom three after this weekend. With a possible penalty regarding FFP rule breaches looming, relegation is a real possibility. Newcastle is becoming impossible to predict. After ending Aston Villa's nearly year-long unbeaten home streak, they shipped in four goals at home against Luton. Who knows what they do this Saturday?
While I fancy Newcastle to win, especially after scoring seven goals in their last two games, I cannot trust them. Their last five EPL games have seen them score 12 and concede 15. Both teams have scored in all six of Forest's games since Espirito Santo took charge. I expect that run to continue. I do fancy there to be more than two goals, but Forest's 1-1 draw last week (a scoreline they've had four times this season) makes me prefer the 'both teams to score' play.
Fantasy Player Pick: Callum Wilson
I expect Wilson to lead the line for Newcastle on Saturday. He replaced Anthony Gordon at halftime last weekend, who was deputizing up front for Alexander Isak. With both of them nursing injuries, a fully fit Wilson may be able to fire Newcastle back into the European qualification reckoning. He's scored seven goals in just seven starts this season and scored against Forest in his only appearance against them last season. I wouldn't roster him long-term.
Sunday, February 11, 2024
West Ham United (+475) vs. Arsenal (-185) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 2 Arsenal
West Ham's six-game unbeaten run was ended and it now makes it four EPL games without a win. Since beating Arsenal in the league, West Ham hasn't won a game in any competition, meaning they are winless in 2024. Arsenal revitalized their title challenge by beating league leaders Liverpool. After losing three consecutive games in all competitions, they've won their last three games, scoring 10 goals in the process.
West Ham has already beaten Arsenal twice this season and drew this fixture 2-2 last season. But their recent form has not been great, scoring just one non-penalty goal in their last four EPL games. And that came against Sheffield United. It looks like Arsenal has rediscovered their form in front of goal but have kept just one clean sheet in their last six league games. I expect a close game but the odds on both teams scoring are most appealing.
Fantasy Player Pick: Martin Ødegaard
The Arsenal skipper has blanked in his last five games. He's only got four assists all season along with four goals. But he can consider himself unlucky and the main victim of Arsenal's spell of profligacy in front of goal. Ødegaard has 4.17 xA (expected assists) in his last 10 games, but only two assists. And his 5.47 xA this season is fourth-most among midfielders. Someone will take a chance he creates soon, and there's no better time than doing so this week.
🔐 Martin Ødegaard has created more chances from open play (43) than any other player in Europe's top five leagues this season pic.twitter.com/fXuEUytJiU
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 7, 2024
Aston Villa (+110) vs. Manchester United (+230) - 11:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 1 Manchester United
Villa bounced back from their first home defeat in the league since last February. Despite that defeat, only Arsenal and Liverpool (both 29) have more home points than Villa (28) and all three are tied for the most home goals (30). United come into this weekend on the back of a three-game unbeaten run for only the second time this season. They've scored nine goals in their last three games after scoring 22 in their first 20 games this season.
While Villa's unbeaten home record was ended, I struggle to see it being consecutive home defeats for them. United's away record against better sides is abysmal. The below graphic was before their last away game against a top-nine side, which they also lost (2-0). If they manage to beat Villa, I might start to trust them, but a home win at plus odds is too appealing to turn down.
Fantasy Player Pick: Ollie Watkins
Monday, February 12, 2024
Crystal Palace (+290) vs. Chelsea (-110) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Chelsea
Palace cannot distance themselves from the relegation zone. Fan protests continue to build a negative atmosphere around the club and their overreliance on Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise was evident last weekend. Chelsea has issues of their own, with fan dissent increasing and finding themselves in the bottom half of the table. Back-to-back defeats in which they conceded four goals in both matches will do that to a team.
Both managers find themselves on the hot seat. I don't expect either to be out of a job before the end of the season, but another heavy defeat for either could force owners to make a change. Roy Hodgson will be leaving at the end of this season while Mauricio Pochettino's comments sound increasingly like a man feeling the pressure. I'm leaving this game alone if I can help it, but do expect a low-scoring affair given the tension surrounding both clubs.
🇦🇷🔵 Mauricio Pochettino: "To be focused on playing football you need to be free in your mind."
"You can’t let it be affected because of the stock market in New York or Tokyo, or the weather in I don’t know where because the farms cannot grow the cereals."
"That is why I keep… pic.twitter.com/ssuoTBeyav
— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) February 7, 2024
Fantasy Player Pick: Cole Palmer
I still like Eze and Olise, but they are both injury doubts for this game. No one else for Palace has any fantasy appeal. For Chelsea, Palmer is the only player I trust and his 10 goals and five assists have kept Chelsea's league season from being even more disastrous. Palmer missed the reverse fixture due to a suspension, but has four goals and an assist in the four subsequent games. I'll continue to back him as the only Chelsea player worth rostering.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Man City 3 – 0 Everton | Man City -525 | O2.5 -230 | No -130 |
| Fulham 1 – 1 Bournemouth | Draw +255 | U2.5 +110 | Yes -175 |
| Liverpool 3 – 1 Burnley | Liverpool -650 | O2.5 -340 | Yes -110 |
| Luton 2 – 0 Sheff United | Luton -135 | U2.5 +105 | No +110 |
| Tottenham 4 – 2 Brighton | Tottenham -120 | O2.5 -270 | Yes -260 |
| Wolves 3 – 2 Brentford | Wolves +120 | O2.5 -135 | Yes -170 |
| Notts Forest 1 – 2 Newcastle | Newcastle +105 | O2.5 -145 | Yes -170 |
| West Ham 1 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -185 | O2.5 -150 | Yes -135 |
| A. Villa 3 – 1 Man United | A. Villa +110 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -215 |
| C. Palace 1 – 1 Chelsea | Draw +265 | U2.5 -105 | Yes -145 |
| Season totals | 114/228 | 125/228 | 131/228 |
| Season parlays | 2/22 (-14.27u) | 6/22 (+11.14u) | 8/22 (+21.54u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
