EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 23: English Premier League

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

After a full midweek set of fixtures, there are little more than 36 hours between the end of Matchday 22 and the commencement of Matchday 23. We're heading into a packed schedule again in the coming weeks with domestic and continental cup competitions throwing up some interesting matchdays. We nailed a parlay in midweek to get us back to winning ways. Hopefully, we can go on another long winning run.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

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Saturday, February 3, 2024

Everton (+165) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+155) - 7:30 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Everton 0 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur

Everton enters this weekend in the relegation zone despite back-to-back draws stopping a run of three consecutive defeats. They have now failed to win any of their last five games and have not scored in their last three. Tottenham got back to winning ways and only the top two have scored more goals (47). They've only won one of their previous five away games but if you believe in patterns, they're set to win again this weekend.

Fantasy Player Pick: Richarlison

Richarlison has scored in each of his last three league games and has seven goals in his last seven games. Yet, he's still only on 13.1% of FPL rosters. He scored against his former team back on Matchday 18 and now has the chance to do it on his first return to Goodison Park.

Brighton (-160) vs. Crystal Palace (+425) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Crystal Palace

Brighton's midweek defeat means they have now won just three times in their last 16 EPL games. They've only lost five of those games and the draws have kept them in the top half of the table. Palace bounced back from their shellacking at Arsenal. Although their form hasn't been great, they've only lost two of their last six games and sandwiched that Arsenal defeat with wins.

The last 10 meetings between these two sides have seen six 1-1 draws, including back in December. Both sides have won two of the other matches each, both by one goal. This is always a tight affair and given their respective form, another draw seems likely. If you don't know why these two teams have such a rivalry and want to learn more about the M23 Derby, check out the below video from the excellent HLTCO.

Fantasy Player Pick: Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze

That's right, two for the price of one. The duo will be the reason Palace won't be sucked into a relegation dogfight. I mentioned this in the FPL Roundtable: "They combined for three goals and two assists in their 3-2 win against Sheffield United. The pair have only started four EPL games together this season. Olise has five goals and two assists while Eze has three goals in those matches." It's worth playing both, especially in DFS.

Burnley (+195) vs. Fulham (+135) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Burnley 2 - 1 Fulham

Burnley avoided a heavy defeat at Manchester City but they've taken just one point from their last four games. Fulham's last five games in all competitions have seen them exit two cup competitions and fail to win while scoring just twice. Burnley's need is far greater and failure to win might see them too far from safety to avoid relegation. That could just be enough to get them over the line on Saturday.

Fantasy Player Pick: Zeki Amdouni

I wouldn't be targeting this game in DFS at all but Amdouni does make an interesting option. He scored in Burnley's previous two games before Wednesday and still had two shots against the reigning champions in under an hour of playing time. His 38 shot-creating actions are second-most on the team and with 48.6% of his shots hitting the target, he should still manage to tally some solid points for his price tag.

Newcastle United (-240) vs. Luton Town (+600) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 - 0 Luton Town

Newcastle has scored two or more in each of their last three league games. Although they've lost their last two home games, conceding three in each, they kept six clean sheets in their previous seven home games. Luton has taken 10 points from their last five games. However, they've only picked up two wins and two draws on their travels and all of those came against the other teams in the bottom five. A comfortable home win is on the cards.

Fantasy Player Pick: Anthony Gordon

Alexander Isak limped out of Tuesday's win and Newcastle will need to rely on Gordon playing as their main forward. He's not been able to maintain his excellent early-season form. But at home, Gordon has provided a goal or assist in 10 of 11 matches. Luton's 24.1 expected goals against (xGA) away from home is the second-highest in the league. Gordon is in a great spot this week and has some very appealing fixtures coming up.

Since #FPL Gameweek 18:

Anthony Gordon - 954,176 transfers out 👋
Kieran Trippier - 949,574 transfers out 👋

The Scout explains why managers might want to bring back their Newcastle assets from Gameweek 23 ⬇️

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) January 19, 2024

Sheffield United (+425) vs. Aston Villa (-165) - 12:30 p.m. EST

Score prediction: Sheffield United 2 - 2 Aston Villa

Sheffield United has scored at least two goals in three of their last four games. They have one point to show for it. Villa's managed just one win from their last five games, which included a 1-1 draw with Saturday's opponents. Although Sheffield United look doomed to relegation already, they've at least been competitive recently and could take advantage of Villa's up-and-down form. Both teams' recent trend of plenty of goals looks set to continue.

Fantasy Player Pick: Leon Bailey

Bailey came off the bench in midweek and nearly inspired a Villa fightback. He got his sixth assist of the season and now has 12 goal involvements despite starting just nine league games. He will likely start on Saturday and will need to continue scoring and assisting to stay in the starting XI. I expect he does that against the league's leakiest defense.

 

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Bournemouth (-135) vs. Nottingham Forest (+330) - 09:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 - 1 Nottingham Forest

Bournemouth ended a two-game losing streak and will feel disappointed they didn't return to winning ways. Only 12 of their 26 points have come at home, but they've not lost at home to a side beneath them in the table. Forest has won two of their five games under Nuno Espirito Santo's leadership. Both teams have scored in all five of those matches. That trend looks highly likely to continue on Sunday.

Fantasy Player Pick: Dominic Solanke

Solanke has nine goals in his last 10 games, including a hat trick against Forest on Matchday 18. Only Darwin Núñez (71) has had more shots than Solanke this season (67) while only the duo of Mo Salah (14) and Erling Haaland (14) have more goals (13). He's got a couple of difficult games coming up but then has a very fantasy-friendly run, making Solanke a definite target for the 73.6% of FPL managers not rostering the forward.

Dominic Solanke has now scored 12 non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season. That is more than any other player.

Impressive. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/gtLMD2R5LP

— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) February 1, 2024

Chelsea (-170) vs. Wolves (+425) - 09:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 2 Wolves

Chelsea's 4-1 defeat at Liverpool flattered them, that's how bad they were. At home, they have won their last four games but only managed to win by more than a goal once. Four of their five home wins have come against sides 12th place or lower. Wolves saw their four-game unbeaten run end dramatically on Thursday. But they did manage to score three times in a game for the third time in their last four. More goals are set to come on Sunday.

Fantasy Player Pick: Pedro Neto

Outside of Cole Palmer, you cannot trust any Chelsea player, so I'm backing Neto to keep his fantastic season going this weekend and beyond. His two goal involvements on Thursday took his tally to 11 on the season. That's after missing nine games through injury. He's blanked just once in his last 10 starts and that was his first start following his lengthy layoff. On less than 2% of FPL teams, Neto is a great differential for the remainder of the season.

Set to equal his best #FPL score with a goal, assist and maximum bonus points to his name 💰

Have you been impressed by Pedro Neto in recent Gameweeks? 🐺#WOLMUN pic.twitter.com/kx5FZcRIoh

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 1, 2024

Manchester United (-135) vs. West Ham United (+330) - 09:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 1 West Ham United

Since keeping a clean sheet at Anfield, Manchester United has conceded 11 goals in five EPL games. They have scored 10 goals in their last four games with both teams scoring twice in three of those matches. West Ham might not have lost in their last six league games but have drawn their last three in the league with uninspiring performances in each. I don't trust Manchester United but do believe we'll see some goals in this contest.

Fantasy Player Pick: Rasmus Højlund

The Danish striker has now had a goal and an assist in back-to-back games. After starting his Manchester career with 11 league games without a goal or assist, he now has five goal involvements in his last four games. West Ham may have only conceded three goals in their last six games but have 8.78 xGA in their last five. They've been riding their luck and Højlund's form should see him take advantage of that.

Arsenal (+105) vs. Liverpool (+235) - 11:30 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 2 Liverpool

The clash of the weekend is one Arsenal needs to win but absolutely cannot lose. Although neither team will start the game playing for a draw, Liverpool certainly would take a point. The last 10 league meetings between these two sides have seen a total of 37 goals (with Liverpool accounting for 26 of them). Only a Bukayo Saka penalty in this fixture last season has been enough to separate the two in their last three league encounters.

Fantasy Player Pick: Darwin Núñez

Núñez scored in this fixture last season, the only league game in which he's started against Arsenal. As mentioned earlier, Núñez leads the league in shots taken but only has seven goals to show for it. He does have nine assists as well and provided a return in each of his last four EPL games (three goals and two assists).

 

Monday, February 5, 2024

Brentford (+650) vs. Manchester City (-265) - 03:00 p.m. EST

Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 3 Manchester City

The return of Ivan Toney has spurred Brentford's attack into life. They've scored five goals in their last two games, after scoring just four goals in their previous five games. Their problem has been defensively with 11 goals shipped in over their last five games. Manchester City's now scored at least twice in six straight games, totaling 15 goals in that time. Brentford did the double over them last season but that should be put right on Monday.

Fantasy Player Pick: Kevin De Bruyne

The Belgian maestro followed up his cameo against Newcastle with another assist against Burnley. With the return of Erling Haaland, it's fair to expect those assists to keep flowing freely until the end of the season. Assuming both of them stay fit, pairing the two in FPL should provide a huge points haul over the coming weeks.

Kevin De Bruyne’s assist yesterday moved him above Wayne Rooney into 3rd place in the #PL all time assist rankings.

He now has 104. 🅰️👑 pic.twitter.com/Cm319LSEYa

— mcfc lads (@mcfc_lads) February 1, 2024

 

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Game	Moneyline	Over/Under 2.5	BTTS
Everton 0 – 2 Tottenham	Tottenham +155	U2.5 +125	No +140
Brighton 1 – 1 C. Palace	Draw +310	U2.5 +105	Yes -135
Burnley 2 – 1 Fulham	Burnley +195	O2.5 -115	Yes -150
Newcastle 3 – 0 Luton	Newcastle -240	O2.5 -170	No +100
Sheff United 2 – 2 A. Villa	Draw +320	O2.5 -165	Yes -150
Bournemouth 2 – 1 N. Forest	Bournemouth -135	O2.5 -155	Yes -160
Chelsea 2 – 2 Wolves	Draw +320	O2.5 -145	Yes -145
Man United 2 – 1 West Ham	Man United -135	O2.5 -175	Yes -175
Arsenal 2 – 2 Liverpool	Draw +275	O2.5 -155	Yes -190
Brentford 1 – 3 Man City	Man City -260	O2.5 -175	Yes -125
Season totals	112/218	118/218	125/218
Season parlays	2/21 (-13.27u)	5/21 (+7.77u)	8/21 (+22.54u)

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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