Early Fantasy Football ADP Analysis For FFPC Leagues: Running Backs

May 20, 2024

The FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) is the home for serious fantasy football players to compete in dynasty leagues. Scott Engel looks at some early drafting trends at running back.

It is never too early to check on fantasy football Average Draft Position reports. High-stakes competitors have already started drafting in seasonal formats on the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) platform. In this feature, I focus specifically on early FFPC ADP trends at running back.

I have highlighted 10 notable RBs to consider from completed early FFPC drafts. Naturally, drafting trends will change as we progress closer to the season, yet it is still very interesting and helpful to see where certain RBs are coming off the board at this time.

The ADP results highlighted here are from the FFPC’s FantasyPros Championship leagues, which are open for higher-stakes drafts that are taking place right now. Live and slow draft options are available in this format, which features two RB starters and two flex players in a tight end premium format with 20 roster spots.

Running Back ADP Early Check-In: Spotlighting 10 FFPC Targets

Breece Hall (ADP of 5 overall): After catching 76 passes and totaling nine scrimmage TDs last year on a sorry Jets offense, expectations are obviously raised with a projected healthy Aaron Rodgers in the backfield with Hall. He may catch less passes with the Jets bulking up at WR, yet there can also be more rushing TD opportunities this season, so the final numbers can still balance out to make the Jets’ ascending star worthy of the lofty draft status.

BREECE HALL 50 YARDS IN THE SNOW ❄️ pic.twitter.com/CT3AFshyh1

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) January 7, 2024

Kyren Williams (17): The drafting of Blake Corum may make some drafters pivot to another closely ranked selection at the same or another position. But Williams has clearly earned the role of the lead RB for the Rams and Corum provides a quality complement and change-of-pace option while preventing Williams from being overworked again. He carried 20-plus times in seven of his last nine games played in 2023.

The third-year man should still be quite productive and efficient with a trimmed workload, and the current draft spot bakes in some reduced rushing attempts while also projecting continued quality output.

De'Von Achane (28.5): Miami’s exciting big-play artist is being drafted as a back-end RB1 so far. The upside is obviously tantalizing, but reliability will be an issue, as we saw last season. Durability is the apparent concern, yet Achane will contribute with some major spike weeks when he is available. He has the promise to be a top-five RB this year, as Raheem Mostert is at the later end of his career. Yet, Mostert could still figure significantly into the Dolphins’ RB picture, and flashy rookie Jaylen Wright is also lurking. Achane has a high ceiling, but the floor is not fully sturdy.

Kenneth Walker III (56.5): The Seahawks’ No. 1 RB is being drafted outside the top 15 at the position right now. Walker is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field and can deliver a big game at any time. I do expect Zach Charbonnet, though, to become more of a factor in his second pro season, and the Seattle RB situation might be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. I may opt for RBs who are projected to be more pure lead runners over Walker, and are being drafted just behind him. Aaron Jones is certainly one to consider in that regard, and I will mull over taking James Conner over Walker, too.

D'Andre Swift (70.5): The new Bears RB is going to be one of my favorite No. 2 targets if he continues to be taken outside of the top 20 at the position. We have not yet witnessed the true breakthrough season from Swift, and Chicago is a good landing spot for him to deliver his best campaign yet. The Bears have been searching for a true lead runner, and Swift can be a very busy receiving target out of the backfield for Caleb Williams, too. The Chicago offense is now richer with playmakers and there will be opportunities to finish off many scoring drives with TD runs.

The D’Andre Swift signing is not getting enough love. #DaBears running back group could be a force this year with or without Khalil Herbert. 🐻⬇️

Video Credit: https://t.co/D4FdVJuvZR pic.twitter.com/yjGw6iVBYG

— Rob Schwarz Jr. (@ChiRuxinBGO) May 3, 2024

Zamir White (71): White impressed the Las Vegas brain trust enough late last season that they didn’t bring in any significant competition for him in the offseason. Alexander Mattison, the object of much fantasy scorn last year, won’t push him for quality playing time. White is a potentially impactful package of strength and some speed, and he can certainly outperform the current draft position outside the top 20 at RB.

Austin Ekeler (92): The fallen fantasy star is being picked outside of the top 30 at RB so far in FFPC drafts. He likely won’t bounce back to RB1 status, but Ekeler will be highly motivated to prove he is not quite finished and can be a very productive target for his rookie QB. He will share backfield work with Brian Robinson Jr. but I believe Ekeler has enough left to perform as a good RB2/flex type at minimum.

Zack Moss (95): There is obvious skepticism among high-stakes players that Moss can cash in on an opportunity to be Cincinnati’s new lead RB. In a five-game span as a starter beginning in Week 2 last season, Moss rushed for 70-plus yards four times and had five scrimmage TDs. He has yet to prove himself as a regularly consistent statistical producer over a full season, but his projected perch atop the RB depth chart on a potent offense positions him as a very alluring value pick at the current ADP.

In games played at lest 50% of the snaps ('23 season):

🏈Zack Moss - 16.01 PPG (8-games) / 20.88 touches/gm
🏈Joe Mixon - 15.7 PPG (17-games) / 18.18 touches/gm

Could it be Zack Moss season? pic.twitter.com/KREYZCtTIo

— Austin Thomas (@Fantasy_Swan) May 13, 2024

Devin Singletary (105.5): Similar to Moss, Singletary is a former Buffalo RB who never delivered consistent fantasy output with the Bills and then showed some potential to take on an expanded role with a new team. Functioning mainly as a starter for the Texans over the second half of last season, Singletary averaged over 76 scrimmage yards per game from Week 9 on.

He has no real competition for the No. 1 RB job, yet Singletary is another guy who has not demonstrated he can be relied on as a regular starter over a full season. The possible workload, though, pinpoints him as a viable value play at the draft spot right now.

Gus Edwards (117): Savvy fantasy players know that Jim Harbaugh will want to put an emphasis on establishing a quality ground game, and Edwards appears ticketed to be the No. 1 RB for the Chargers. He certainly should be the top rushing TD option, and the former Raven is also reuniting with Greg Roman, his ex-offensive coordinator in Baltimore. I will surely take Edwards outside the top 40 at RB as a viable value RB.

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