Dynasty WR Rankings Analysis (June) - Part Two

We are closing in on the 2018 season and training camp is right around the corner. As fantasy owners are gearing up for another exciting season, Rotoballer staff is hard at work putting together our first rankings for the season.

Pierre Camus, Steve Halupka and I have put together consensus rankings for dynasty leagues. I’ll be breaking down our wide receiver tiers in this dynasty rankings analysis.

In the first part of this article, I covered the first three tiers of our rankings and broke down the elite options at wide receiver. For part two, I’ll cover Tiers 4 through 10, but concentrate on the players I think you should be targeting for maximum value or passing on completely.

Dynasty Tiered Rankings- Wide Receivers

Tier 4

I truly believe Stefon Diggs is one of the most overrated receivers in fantasy football. He was able to double his career high in touchdowns last season and he gets a big upgrade at quarterback with the addition of Kirk Cousins, but I don’t think that will be enough to push him over the top. Cousins may be an upgrade but the Vikings will have a balanced attack with Dalvin Cook at running back and Diggs will need to deal with targets going to Cook, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Diggs also has had an issue staying on the field, averaging 13 games a season for his first three years in the league. I don’t see him living up to his current ADP of 26.

Are you willing to invest in Josh Gordon yet? If not, I think you need to get on board. After two and half seasons out of the league, Gordon returned to play five games in 2017. If you project his numbers from those five games over a 16-game season, Gordon was on pace for 57 receptions and 1,072 yards. That was with another season of ineffective quarterback play. Tyrod Taylor will be much better.

Corey Davis wasn’t what fantasy owners expected last season. There is reason for optimism in Tennessee though. The new coaching staff will look to give a shot in the arm to an offense that underperformed last season. After dealing with a hamstring injury for a better part of the season, Davis had some nice performances down the stretch. In his limited time, Davis was still able to average 11 yards per reception, better than Eric Decker and Delanie Walker.

Tier 5

After a breakout campaign in 2016, Crowder took a step back in 2017. It wasn’t much of a step back though. The biggest issue was falling from seven touchdowns in 2016 to three touchdowns last season. Other than that, almost all his other stats lined up well. He only averaged .3 yards less per reception and had more targets with one less reception. Keep an eye on him to rebound and become a favorite target of Alex Smith in 2018.

Our first rookie receivers fall into tier five with D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley. Ridley lands in a better situation for 2018, but I believe Moore is more talented than Ridley and will be the WR1 on his team far before Ridley. I also believe that Moore will have the ability to play anywhere the Panthers line him up while Ridley needs to be in the slot to be most effective.

Tier 6

Two of my favorite PPR options fall into Tier 6. Nelson Agholor and Cooper Kupp are about ready to take another step forward. Some may have concerns because they both play in offenses that are loaded with talent. Both should end up being safe plays with high floors in 2018 and moving forward.

Agholor broke out last season seeing a career-high 95 targets but more importantly, raised his catch percentage from 52.5% to 65.3%. He only had one game with more than 100 receiving yards but was able to help prop up his stats with eight touchdowns. You could see late last season the Agholor was a go-to for Carson Wentz and Nick Foles.

Kupp was one of the bright spots of the 2018 rookie wide receiver class. Kupp and Juju Smith-Schuster were the only rookie receivers to finish in the top 60 receivers in PPR scoring. Even though the Rams have added Brandin Cooks, the offense ran through the short game last season, utilizing Todd Gurley and Kupp with quick routes that would get them into the open field. I don’t anticipate the Rams deviating from that plan much in 2018.

Tier 7

I know most owners are not as high on the 49ers offense as I am, but I expect big things from them in 2018. Don’t take an issue with San Francisco not signing a true WR1 this offseason, because they have plenty of playmakers that will light it up all over the field. Two of my favorites fall in this tier.

Marquise Goodwin should be higher, but it looks like he will need to prove himself again this season to get the nod. Goodwin was third in the NFL with 17.2 yards per catch. He proved to me he could be a WR1 for the 49ers now that he gets a full season of Jimmy Garoppolo, I expect even better numbers than the 962 yards and two touchdowns from 2017. You can get him as a WR3/flex value and he will end up putting together WR2 numbers.

Pierre Garcon’s season was cut short in 2017 with a neck injury, but he was on pace for 80 catches and over 100 targets and that was pre Garoppolo. This year he will be a PPR machine once again with a much better quarterback this time. Goodwin will be the big play maker while Garcon will be the steady producer. Each guy will have a job to do and they will do it well. Both players have WR2 upside in PPR leagues.

Tier 8

I love Kenny Golladay and loved the pick by the Lions last year. The Lions fan in me must have been a little too excited because I thought Golladay could make an impact right away, but he wasn’t able to put together much fantasy value last season. I don’t think 2018 will be the big breakout for Golladay, but we should see some progression at least.

Eric Ebron and Darren Fells have left the Lions and 112 targets from last season. While it is conceivable that Golden Tate and Marvin Jones could get a look at these, Golladay should see an increase as well. Not only does Ebron and Fells leave behind a lot of targets, they leave behind seven touchdowns as well. If Golladay can add 20 more catches at his average yards per catch of 17.0, he would have over 800 receiving yards in 2018.

Tier 9

This tier is also a favorite of mine as it includes Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills and Cameron Meredith. All three of these guys should see a huge boost in value for 2018 thus raising their value for the next several years. Meredith probably has the best chance to keep that long-term success.

It appears Meredith will be working out of the slot in 2018 with Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith playing on the outside. Those two will draw an abundance of attention on the outside and Alvin Kamara will keep the defense honest out of the backfield, Meredith can slip in behind the linebackers for huge gains. I thought the breakout was coming in 2017 for Meredith but his leg injury derailed that before it even started. I expect it in 2018 though.

Tier 10

Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson highlight my do not touch list for 2018. The numbers Nelson was able to put up during his time in Green Bay may try to pull you back in. Don’t let them. Nelson is not the same player and he is not playing with Aaron Rodgers anymore. Amari Cooper is going to be the guy in Oakland and will see the targets first. Nelson has been viewed as a good late round target for those that need some depth at receiver, but I would rather let someone else make that decision. My bold prediction for this article? Nelson won’t be worth a roster spot by the end of the season.

Updated Tiered Rankings and Analysis