Dynasty WR Rankings Analysis (June) - Part One

We are closing in on the 2018 season and training camp is right around the corner. As fantasy owners are gearing up for another exciting season, Rotoballer staff is hard at work putting together our first rankings for the season. Pierre Camus, Steven Halupka and myself have put together consensus rankings for dynasty leagues. I’ll be breaking down our wide receiver tiers in this dynasty rankings analysis.

Year after year, receivers typically hold the most value of any position in fantasy football. Whether your settings are PPR or standard, receivers offer longevity and are typically the deepest position on your roster. Since the position is so deep, it only makes sense to break this into two pieces to cover as many as possible. In the first part, I will cover tiers one through three while we exam the top options at the position.

The second part will dive into the players I find the most value in this off-season. Let’s get to it!

Dynasty Tiered Rankings - Wide Receivers

Tier 1

Odell Beckham Jr, DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown are the only receivers to land in tier one. It is interesting to note that our rankings place Beckham at the top of the leaderboard over Hopkins. Honestly, you couldn’t go wrong with either choice. Both have been great fantasy assets and both come with question marks. The reason Beckham takes a small lead on Hopkins is because we’ve seen Beckham be spectacular every year in the league.

If Brown were three years younger and a bunch of changes for the Steelers offense wasn’t on the horizon, he would be the top overall player. He still cracks tier one though which is deserved, even in dynasty leagues. Five straight seasons of at least 100 receptions and 1200 receiving yards should make you one of the top picks in all formats, but it seems like owners will scan over Brown due to his age. Brown’s ADP in dynasty leagues currently stands at 7.5.

Tier 2

You could probably make a great case that any of the players listed in Tier 2 should also be ranked in Tier 1. Part of the reason I am willing to grab a running back early in the first round, even in dynasty, is because most of these guys will still be available in the second round.

Michael Thomas seems to be bumped down the rankings in dynasty, not because of him, but because of his quarterback. Owners are hesitant to draft Thomas without knowing how much longer Drew Brees will be around. Don’t worry about Thomas though, he will produce and the Saints will have a replacement in time to bridge the gap. Brees has two years left on his new deal and he should be around for both years, if not more.

Which Mike Evans will we get this season? Will it be the Evans that had 2,372 yards and 24 touchdowns combined in 2014 and 2016? Will it be the Evans that had 2,207 and eight touchdowns combined in 2015 and 2017? Even coming off a down year, Evans is still a top dynasty asset that continues to fall into the second round with a 17.7 ADP. The Buccaneers offense should be much better in 2018 if Jameis Winston is fully healthy. That connection could bring Evans right back into the first round again for 2019.

A.J. Green gets a bad rap for the offense around him. Well, maybe it’s the coaching staff. Probably a little bit of both to be honest. Green is still only 29 and has 1,000 receiving yards in every season but one since entering the league. If Green was on a different team, his value would be much higher. If the Bengals have fixed the offensive line and Joe Mixon turns out a great season, the Bengals offense as a whole will be trending up and Green will benefit greatly.

There isn’t much to say about Keenan Allen. He had 102 receptions last season and the Chargers just lost one of their main targets in Hunter Henry for the season. Allen still doesn’t get the love he deserves. He is a top WR1 in my book and will show that with another great season this year.

Davante Adams really saw his stock fly when he was able to haul 46 catches for 546 yards and five touchdowns in eight games with Brett Hundley. Adams officially established himself as the WR1 in Green Bay and the Packers agreed, cutting Jordy Nelson loose. Be prepared for a career-best year from Adams.

Since these are dynasty rankings, I must throw in my favorite sell now player, Julio Jones. I’m selling because his name is worth more than his performance still. Julio only has two seasons with 100 or more receptions and has only scored double-digit touchdowns once in his career. Yet, owners treat him as a top-five receiver still.

Tier 3

Kicking off the third tier is Tyreek Hill, who rushed up the dynasty rankings last season after showing off his explosive playmaking ability in 2016. It could take the Chiefs offense a year to really get into a groove. Patrick Mahomes is going to be really good, but will he gel with all the weapons that offense offers right away? I think Hill is more of a WR2 with weekly WR1 upside from week to week. Long term, that offense should be good and Hill will benefit greatly.

Does a debate get any better than Amari Cooper’s dynasty value? The guy put together back to back 1,000-yard seasons and after one bad season, his value has tanked. Cooper had an ADP of 7.01 in 2017 and has now fallen to 23.4. Cooper is a buy-now candidate though. The Raiders defense will be awful and the offense will be playing from behind a lot. Cooper is now the main target. He’s headed back up the boards.

If you trust that Andrew Luck is healthy, then you trust in T.Y. Hilton reaching WR1 status again. If you don’t trust that Luck is healthy, then you should probably lay off Hilton at this point. At the right price, I will take a gamble on Hilton in redraft leagues, but in dynasty, Hiltons value is tied to the long-term health of a guy who couldn't throw a football for 15 months. If you already own Hilton, keep those fingers crossed. Prior to last season, Hilton had four straight 1,000-yard seasons and showed he could be a big playmaker as well, averaging 16.37 yards per reception during that time.

The Rams have a new receiver after a late off-season trade with the Patriots. Can Brandin Cooks be a WR1 in Los Angeles or will he lose out on targets to Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods? Jared Goff was one of the worst in the league last season in depth of target due to the Rams reliance on the short passing game. Cooks doesn’t fit that mold, so will Sean McVay allow Goff to open it up in 2018?

A new face in a new place as Allen Robinson leaves sunny Jacksonville for the windy city of Chicago. The Bears wanted to make sure second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky had all the weapons he would need to be successful. Sometimes chemistry doesn’t develop for quarterbacks and receivers right away. We need Trubisky to take a huge step forward in 2018 to support this many weapons and I’m not confident in it. Robinson has the talent to produce WR1 numbers, which he has done with Blake Bortles before. Trubisky must be better than Bortles, right?

Same face and same place, but this face will be in a different place on draft boards next year. Martavis Bryant is gone and Le’Veon Bell is probably gone after this season. By this time next year, Juju Smith-Schuster will be a top-10 dynasty wide receiver. He is in for a bigger workload this season and if he builds on 58 receptions for 917 yards, he’s gone to be one of the most coveted receivers next year.

Updated Tiered Rankings and Analysis

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