RADIO
Welcome to the 2023 Minor League Baseball season, and to a new weekly prospects series here at RotoBaller. Each week, I will review top performers from fantasy baseball prospects across the minor leagues from the previous week. I'll highlight a six-pack of hitters and pitchers -- discussing if a player’s performance is “real,” if more information is needed, or if the numbers are hiding something underlying.
With the addition of Statcast data in all Triple-A games and select leagues below Triple-A, more publicly-available data is now out there than ever before to help guide those decisions.
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty leagues pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they are ascending to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Current minor league home run leaders - Jo Adell 7, Nolan Jones 6, Kevin Smith 5
- Current minor league stolen base leaders - Tyler Wade 6; Dairon Blanco, Oswald Peraza, Wilderd Patino, David Hamilton 5
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
If you haven’t heard Caminero’s name yet, get used to it. He’s very likely moving up prospect lists very quickly this year as more get a real look at him. The Rays acquired the young hitter in exchange for Tobias Myers in November 2021. Caminero packs plenty of power into his swing, but he can get off track in his swing path, as he showed when he hit 14 home runs in just 39 games in the Australian league over the winter.
Weather postponed two of Bowling Green’s opening weekend games, but in the one game he did get to play, Caminero rapped four singles and powered out a home run in six plate appearances. The 19-year-old is going to potentially move quickly this year for Tampa Bay.
VERDICT: Priority dynasty league stash.
Kahlil Watson, SS, Miami Marlins
In an incredible prep shortstop class in the 2021 draft, Watson was frequently considered the most athletic and highest-ceiling player among the high schoolers drafted that season.
The 2022 season was to be Watson’s first full season, but off-field issues and adjustments translating his impressive raw athletic tools into baseball skills led to a lost season. The offseason was big for Watson and reports this spring have been glowing on the field and off for him.
His opening weekend series included an impressive eye at the plate, just one strikeout across nine plate appearances after striking out more than one-third of his at-bats in 2022, and he flashed power and speed offensively while showing impressive range at shortstop.
VERDICT: Watson was dropped by many dynasty league owners, but he’s still a teenager for a week. He should be an add in deep dynasty leagues where he’s available and a priority watch in more shallow dynasty leagues.
Leonardo Balcazar, SS, Cincinnati Reds
A physical young hitter with up-the-middle defensive skills, Balcazar was signed by the Reds out of Venezuela in January 2021. He is in his first year in a full-season league, playing for Daytona in the Florida State League.
In his first weekend, the 18-year-old clubbed five balls at 90+ MPH, including a home run that was clocked at 105.7 MPH by Statcast.
VERDICT: Keep watch to potentially act quickly if this keeps up.
Vaughn Grissom, SS, Atlanta Braves
Many fantasy owners backed off Grissom when he lost out on the Braves shortstop job out of spring training. However, he has taken the work in Triple-A in stride and is going to force his way onto the big league roster quickly with his offensive production across the board.
Grissom has slashed .394/.487/.667 across eight games to open the season while walking five times and not striking out. He’s collected five extra-base hits and two stolen bases.
Grissom has primarily played shortstop in Triple-A, but with injuries in Atlanta and his offensive performance, he may push his way into the lineup with his bat first.
VERDICT: Stash him now, he should be up soon.
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Adell was awarded the Minor League Player of the Week in the first full week of minor league play, and it was well-earned as he homered in six straight games. Adell currently leads the minors with seven home runs on the season in nine games. The issue is that Adell has done this before – hit well in Triple-A, but struggled when he got to the majors. What is different?
Adell is being very patient in his approach, letting plenty of pitches go by, leading to a 16.7% walk rate, which would be a career high by more than 5%. He’s also striking out at a 28.6% rate, which is the lowest rate he’s ever posted in Triple-A action over his career. He’s intentionally working the ball to right field and center field, as his 36.4% pull rate on his hits is the lowest of any level in his major league career.
VERDICT: High risk, high reward at this point, but if you don’t act now, someone is likely to grab him and hope for the production to continue in the majors. Still, a wait-and-see right now to see if this is repeatable for multiple weeks if you can hold out.
Maikel Garcia, SS, Kansas City Royals
After impressing in a nine-game MLB audition last season, Garcia competed for a role until the very end of spring. Rather than have him ride the bench, the Royals preferred Garcia get regular time in Triple-A, and he’s been producing.
He has shown impressive patience at the plate, walking at a 22.2% rate, he’s picked up a homer and three doubles, and he’s flashed impressive speed on the bases.
With only utility man Matt Duffy hitting well to open the season among the Royals’ infield options, there could be an opportunity sooner rather than later if Garcia continues to show himself capable with the glove and bat.
VERDICT: Not a guy on many radars right now, Garcia might be a guy to watch for any moves on the Royals, but if he is coming up, it’s to start, so jump on him!
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Minor league strikeout leaders - Casey Lawrence 15; Garrett Whitlock, Matthew Liberatore 14
- Minor league innings leaders - Cody Bradford 11 1/3; T.J. Zeuch, Chase Silseth 11
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Matthew Liberatore, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
An elite prospect coming out of high school, Liberatore was selected by the Rays with the 16th overall pick in 2018. The Rays traded him to the Cardinals as part of the deal that sent Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay, so Cardinals fans have been wanting big returns from Liberatore, and his performance in St. Louis before 2023 hadn’t exactly won over the fanbase.
His early-season performance has shown a much-improved pitcher, as he’s yet to allow an earned run, striking out 14 over 10 innings for Memphis in two starts. His fastball is now maxing out at 97, and he’s averaging 93-94 with his 4-seamer and sinker, an increase of a couple of ticks.
He’s also featuring an impressive new shape on his curveball, and it’s been generating significant swing and miss. Add in his already excellent slider and changeup, and Liberatore offers a five-pitch mix that could instantly help at the back of the Cardinals’ rotation.
VERDICT: With Jake Woodford struggling out of the gate, Liberatore’s shot might be sooner rather than later. Grab him while you can.
Chase Silseth, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Silseth enjoyed a meteoric rise through the Angels’ system in 2022, going from an 11th-round selection out of the University of Arizona in 2021 to making seven starts with the big league club a year later. The 6-foot righty uses a five-pitch mix but heavily leans on three – his 4-seam fastball that sits 92-94 MPH, a slider, and a nasty splitter.
The combination has generated a significant amount of swing and miss to open the season. While Silseth can struggle when his location is off, a 13/3 K/BB ratio to open the season over 11 innings has shown that his control has been strong to open the minor league season.
VERDICT: Silseth isn’t going to be an ace for a fantasy rotation, but he could eat up innings with quality ratios were he to get the call.
Andrew Abbott, SP, Cincinnati Reds
A 2021 second-round pick out of the University of Virginia, lefty Andrew Abbott worked his way to Double-A last season for the Reds, but with multiple trades that brought in high-profile prospects, his excellent performance (159 K in 118 IP) was overlooked to a large degree.
He opened the season back in Chattanooga, and his first start showed that he’s gearing to force the Reds’ hand on a big league job by the end of 2023. He struck out 11 and walked just one over 4 2/3 no-hit innings.
Abbott has struggled with his command in the past, but he has an excellent feel for pitching, with the ability to manipulate his plus curve and a significantly improved changeup. He’s not spent a ton of time as a starter, however, so the Reds could slow-play Abbott this year to build up innings.
VERDICT: Wait and see. Very impressive first outing, but command history and the likelihood of innings restriction could limit the impact in 2023. Worthy of a stash in deep dynasty leagues.
Ty Madden, SP, Detroit Tigers
If Madden wouldn’t have been injured in his draft season, he would have potentially gone in the top 10 selections of the 2021 draft, rather than with the 32nd overall pick to the Tigers.
He returned to the mound last season and picked up the pace slowly but surely throughout the year, making some of his most impressive starts in the final days of the Double-A season. Madden has worked with the data he’s been provided to alter the shape and delivery of his fastball and give a second look to his plus slider by altering its shape.
The results in his first start of the year were very promising, as he struck out 10 and walked one in four no-hit innings. He’s now a year past injury and cleared 120+ innings last season, so he should be clear to work as many innings as his performance earns.
VERDICT: The Tigers have plenty of upper minors arms pushing for an opportunity, but if Madden pitches like this, he’ll move to the head of the class. Definitely worth a stash in deep dynasty and a look in shallow dynasty as well.
Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians
If Williams had not had notable injury issues throughout college, he would have been in the running for a top-10 selection in the 2021 draft, but his work was impressive enough that he was still taken 23rd overall.
That could quickly prove to be a significant bargain for Cleveland, as Williams had one of the best seasons of any minor league arm in 2022 with 149 strikeouts in 115 innings with a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP. The 115 innings were 30 more than he’s ever tossed in a season, however, so the Guardians could work to manage his build this summer with an eye toward the 2024 rotation.
Gavin may have other ideas, if his first start is any indication, as he struck out nine while allowing two hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings.
VERDICT: Williams is likely behind a couple of other names in the pecking order right now, but an elite performance would jump him to the top of that list, and a top arm in Cleveland is always someone to roster. If he is available in dynasty, grab him now. In redraft, be watching very closely if he is promoted to Triple-A, as he could be put on the fast track.
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks drafted Pfaadt in the fifth (and final) round of the 2020 draft out of Bellarmine University (total student enrollment of just under 3,000). From the moment he got on the mound, he’s shown he was more than a small-school talent, however, showing four pitches that at least flash plus and command and control that could both be graded as plus as well.
Pfaadt gained plenty of note in 2022 when he struck out 218 batters over 167 innings to lead the minors in strikeouts. His first two starts have been “rough”, as he holds a 6.48 ERA, but he’s allowed just eight hits over 8 1/3 innings, with five of those hits leaving the ballpark. In fact, all of the runs that he has allowed have been via home run.
In the Pacific Coast League, that’s not terribly surprising. What is of note is that he’s been generating plenty of swing and miss, striking out 12 already this year. The Diamondbacks recently had an injury open a spot in their rotation and Pfaadt was not called on, but he was part of a three-way race for the fifth spot in spring, and the other two that were fighting for that spot are now in the Arizona rotation, so he’s now the “next up.”
VERDICT: Don’t be scared away by PCL home run numbers. Buy in as Pfaadt will be up sooner rather than later.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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