RADIO
We get treated to a Christmas day surprise as the Minnesota Vikings head down to the Bayou to take on the New Orleans Saints. This is a big-time game for both teams as the Vikings are still in the Wild Card race while the Saints are trying to keep pace with their one-game lead in the NFC South. This game features an over/under of 51.5 with the Saints being favored by 6 points.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Christmas Day Football slate on December 25th (Week 16). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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DFS Quarterbacks
The quarterback spot features two quarterbacks that could make or break the slate in tournaments. Drew Brees finally made his return to the lineup against the Chiefs and had one of the rougher outings as he completed 44% of his passes but was able to find the end zone three times while throwing for 234 yards. Brees has been up and down all season long as he has been extremely efficient with taking care of the football (21 TDs, 4 INTs) but has only thrown for 2,400 yards in just 10 total games played. granted, he has done this without his top target in Michael Thomas but he will still be without him for the remainder of the regular season. Another thing you have to watch out for is the Taysom Hill touchdown vulture. Hill saw 10 total snaps this past week but saw two rushing attempts down by the goal line and was able to find the end zone once so there is a strategy in tournaments in rolling out the duo in hopes that Brees can connect a few times while Hill is able to run one in. The Vikings have struggled against the pass as they are allowing over 260 passing yards per game so this looks to be a positive matchup for the Saints passing game.
On the other side of this game is Kirk Cousins who is actually having a solid fantasy season. Cousins has thrown for over 3,500 yards, 29 touchdowns, and only 13 interceptions while hitting double-digit DK points in all but one game this year. Cousins has been playing well over his last four games as he has eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark twice while also throwing at least two touchdowns in three out of four of those games. Cousins has eclipsed the 20 point DK mark in three out of his last four games and has attempted 35+ passing attempts in all four of those games as well. If the Saints Defense bottles up the Viking's running attack, Cousins will be forced to air it out. The Saint's defense has been tough against the pass as they limit opposing teams to just 228 passing yards per game so this will be a tough challenge for the Vikings passing attack.
Analysis: Brees is the safer play based on the matchup but both are viable in all formats. Cousins could be the stronger tournament play as he could be lower owned and draws a tougher matchup.
DFS Running Backs
A popular build from this game will be loading up on some of the premier running backs in the NFL. Dalvin Cook ranks second in total rushing yards (1,484) and is tied for first overall with 15 rushing touchdowns this season. Cook carries a very high price tag, especially on DK, but it is hard to go against his performances this season. He has had three straight games where he has eclipsed 20+ DK points and is averaging 26 DK points per game. Cook sees quite the volume as he is averaging 22 carries per game but what is even more impressive is that he also ranks third in total targets on the Vikings. The Vikings offense revolves around Cook so he is tough to fade in any matchup. Backing up Cook is Alexander Mattison who is a solid backup but never gets a true look as Cook takes the majority of the snaps and carries. The Saints have a very stingy defense when it comes to stopping opposing running games as they're allowing only 95 rushing yards per game which is fourth-best in the league. Cook has faced the Saints one time in his career (2017) and in that game, he ran for 127 yards on 22 carries.
The Saints have a strong duo for their rushing attack. Alvin Kamara is one of the top receiving backs in the league and is arguably the most electric back once he gets the ball in his hands out in open space. Kamara has not eclipsed 100 rushing yards in a game this season but he does get double-digit carries while also averaging over seven targets per game. Kamara has 15 total touchdowns on the season with 10 on the ground and five in the passing game so he is never really shut down in a game because he is so versatile. In two career games against the Vikings, Kamara is only averaging 31 rushing yards but has 11 catches on 14 total targets while finding the end zone twice. Latavius Murray backs up Kamara in the ground game and provides a bigger type of back that can run between the tackles. He does see limited touches but can be effective when given the opportunity. The Vikings run defense has been terrible this year as they allow opponents to rush for 125 yards per game so this sets up nicely for the combo of Kamara and Murray.
Analysis: Both Cook and Kamara are top plays on this slate due to volume and usage. Murray could be used as a cheaper tournament option if wanting to differentiate in your lineups.
DFS Wide Receivers
These two teams are almost polar opposites when it comes to their passing game. The Vikings really focus their passing efforts towards the receiving duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. These two receivers combine for 40% of all targets on the Vikings and they both see at least seven targets per game. Jefferson is having a tremendous rookie season as he leads the Vikings in total targets and receptions while Adam Thielen leads the Vikings offense with 12 total receiving touchdowns. This is the primary receiving duo that the Vikings lean on but outside of those two, Chad Beebe is another receiver that the Vikings utilize as well. While he doesn't have quite the target share as Jefferson and Thielen, he has been seeing close to four targets per game over his last four games played.
The Saints are going to be without their main receiving target in Michael Thomas for the remainder of the regular season so they will need to lean on other weapons for the time being. The Saints spread the ball around quite a bit as they have three receivers that have a 10+ target share percentage and five players on offense that carry a 10+target share percentage. Emmanuel Sanders ad Tre'Quan Smith are going to be the primary receiving targets now that Thomas is out and they both have recorded four receiving touchdowns each on the season. Sanders is the preferred receiving target as he does lead the Saints in receptions and total targets while Smith can flash big-play potential. Smith does have an ankle injury so this will be a status to monitor as we head towards Friday's game. If Smith is unable to play, bumps could go towards Tommylee Lewis and rookie Lil'Jordan Humphrey as they should see expanded roles.
Analysis: Thielen, Jefferson, and Sanders would be the preferred receiving options in this game. All are viable in both cash games and tournaments while Smith, Beebe, Lewis, and Humphrey are more geared towards tournament player pools.
DFS Tight Ends
The tight end position could be a position to target especially when building tournament lineups. Jared Cook is the primary receiving tight end target for the Saints as he carries an 11% target share and averages close to four targets per game. Cook is a top red-zone target in this Saints offense as he has racked up six receiving touchdowns on the season which leads all receiving options in touchdown receptions in this Saints offense. For the Vikings, they have two primary receiving tight end targets in Kyle Rudolph and Irv. Smith Jr. but Kyle Rudolph looks to be potentially out yet again due to an ankle injury. If Rudolph is unable to go, this provides a nice bump to Smith Jr. who would be viable in all formats. Smith Jr. leads all Minnesota tight ends with three receiving touchdowns and has consistently seen four targets in back-to-back games. With Rudolph out, it could also provide a bump to Tyler Conklin who has filled the second tight end void in this Minnesota offense and he has seen nine total targets over the last two games played.
Analysis: Cook is the top tight end option on this slate but Smith Jr. could be bumped up to this tier should Rudolph be out. If Rudolph does sit out, Conklin would get a bump which would make him a viable tournament option as well.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
This game features a modest game total as it hovers right above the 50 point mark. Both offenses are extremely effective a what they do but we all know this game comes down to defenses and the matchups. The Vikings Defense has not been what we are usually accustomed to as they are in the bottom third of the entire league in all of the major categories (passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, points per game allowed, total yards allowed). The Saints offense is a top-10 offense in the league and it seems as if the Vikings defense will have their hands full.
On the other side of this game, the Vikings offense goes through the run game but the Saints run defense has been stellar all season long so the Vikings might have to open things up downfield in order to be successful offensively. The Saints Defense limit opposing teams to just 21 points per game and 323 total yards per game which is third-best in the league. If the Saints get up on the Vikings early, the Saints defense could pressure Cousins into some errant throws which could create some turnover opportunities. With the game total being high, we should expect both field goal kickers to get plenty of chances and opportunities throughout this game. Both Dan Bailey and Will Lutz carry above a 70% made field-goal percentage and carry solid floors due to their offenses being able to generate quality drives and get into scoring positions.
Analysis: The Saints defense looks to be the better defensive play that could be rostered in tournaments. Both Bailey and Lutz are viable in this game and could be used in tournament builds due to their pricing.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!
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