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Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 10


May is coming to an end, but luckily, buy and sell windows are still open on a certain set of players discussed in today's piece. There is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys underperform, but if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need (saves/steals typically).

If you missed out on the opportunity to make moves on players discussed in previous articles, it is okay. As they say, when one door closes, another one opens. Every player except maybe Mike Trout has their value fluctuate enough throughout the year. Some players may even present multiple buy opportunities like Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco this year. It's a long season, don't let a couple of missed opportunities bring you down.

Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.

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Undervalued Players - Week 10

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

 

Mallex Smith - OF, SEA

45% owned

Mallex Smith was probably dropped in your leagues a few weeks ago (hopefully not by you), if he's still available, get him. It seems as if he has turned the corner and that demotion to Triple-A allowed him to make the proper adjustments. In 48 plate appearances during his demotion, Smith hit .333, struck out less than 10 percent of the time, and stole seven bases. His immediate return to the bigs was a bit choppy despite hitting a home run in his first game back. However, he has been on fire (especially on the base paths) this past week.

Smith has six steals since the start of the Rangers' series which ups his total to 14 on the year. Most impressively, he has only been caught once. Smith will not provide much in the home run or RBI departments, but as long as his average gets to about .250, he should be a plus contributor on most fantasy teams due to his runs and SBs alone. Smith's hit leadoff over the past few games and could stick there if this hot streak continues. He's a non-starter in points leagues but a must-own in even 10-team H2H category/roto leagues for his steal potential alone.

 

Manny Machado - 3B/SS, SD

99% owned

Machado has not done much to buck the narrative that he can't hit outside of Camden Yards/Hitter friendly parks. His 2019 season along with his stint in LA have been underwhelming. This year, he has hardly been a top-200 hitter and has failed to do anything spectacular outside of a hot stretch at the beginning of May. He is a prime buy candidate because, well, he is Manny Machado. Fernando Tatis Jr. is due to back to the lineup any week now and Luis Urias is crushing Triple-A. The lineup in San Diego is due to become more potent soon and it will result in multi-category production for the likes of Machado and other Padres.

The home park factor has clearly dinged his value, but I would not be too concerned as summer approaches. Machado is walking more than ever (as well as striking out) and should see some run/RBI regression soon. The home run total is disappointing, but it's still very possible that he jacks 20 more before season's end. Just do not expect steals anytime soon because that seems out of the question given his new "no hustle" approach. Guy's only attempted two all season. It would shock me if he had double-digit attempts by September.

If you can trade an overperforming pitcher or some medley of trade chips here, pull the trigger.

 

Overvalued Players - Week 10

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag.

 

Wil Myers - 3B/OF, SD

72% owned

Good news/Bad News.

Wil Myers is finally healthy! That's about it for the good news portion. Well, maybe his weekend in Toronto as well, but don't kid yourself, he was probably benched in your lineup.

The bad news is that Wil Myers is performing as well as we should expect him to. Regression is not in the forecast according to Statcast or any available metrics. His BABIP and ISO are pretty normal. He's attempting to steal bases, but pretty inefficient there with five in eight attempts. There's more hard contact than ever but he's just pulling the heck out of the ball (60 percent of the time). Myers is a legitimate drop candidate if you cannot find a buyer. The 10 home runs and five steals are hard to see/let go of, but when a guy is batting below .240 and striking out a career-high 35 percent of the time, I am just not sold.

It remains very possible that Myers gets dealt for potato chips at the deadline and recoups some value in a more hitter-friendly ballpark, but that may be a longshot. In shallower formats (especially points leagues) he can be let go of if your league does not have a market for him.

 

Zach Davies - SP, MIL

62% owned

Has there been a bigger overperformer in the first half than Zach Davies? The first third of this season is an anomaly. He is arguably having his worst year while performing at top-end levels. His strikeout rate is as dismal as ever and he's giving up more fly balls. He is due to get wrecked soon.

His xFIP and SIERA are the worst of his career, he's leaving more dudes on base than ever, and he's lost velocity. It does not make sense, but hey, if someone in your league needs pitching, offer them the junkballer with a 2.19 ERA and five wins/no losses. There are folks who will buy, luckily they are not you, nor me.

 

Alex Colome - RP, CWS

78% owned

Colome is not only a candidate to get dealt at the deadline to a team to assume a set-up role but is also overperforming his peripherals by a lot. The White Sox are not legitimately in contention and should be selling at the deadline. Colome is probably one of the first names that get brought up in trade talks due to the general need of relief pitching for most contending teams along with the fact that bad teams don't really need closers.

He's been generating way more fly balls than ever (more than half of the balls he allows in play) and has a .118 BABIP. With a 1.59 ERA and 4.22 xFIP/3.53 SIERA, it's pretty clear that Colome has been a little lucky. Sell Colome before the regression fairies come to even things out because they almost always do (just ask the Red Sox bullpen).

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