MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/18/2026)

April 18, 2026

Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/18/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Mike Trout, Teoscar Hernandez, Francisco Alvarez and more!

Welcome to another Saturday of MLB action, RotoBallers! We're finally starting to get enough data trends here to make us feel a little more comfortable betting on the long ball. Hitting on a couple of these would be a great way to get the weekend started, so let's hope we see a few barrels that lead to some more green in our pockets.

I've found four spots I like today in four separate games. You can play these as four straight bets, parlay them or throw them all into a round robin to maximize value. Since home run props are long shots by nature, I recommend a small bet size for any prop you take, especially since we're still early in the season.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, April 18, 2026. All odds are going to be what was available at the time of publishing, so make sure to shop around and see if you can find better odds on other books throughout the day. Now let's get to it.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/18/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, April 18.

Francisco Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+525, DraftKings)

Eventually, something has to go right for the Mets, right? They're hoping they can get back on the right track on Saturday, and I think it's going to be thanks to the bat of Francisco Alvarez, who's quietly been an incredibly strong hitter.

His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel Rate are all in the 90th percentile or better on Baseball Savant as of Friday. The important one here is going to be the barrel rate, which sits at 21.6%. The hard-hit rate's a bit lower, but still coming in at the 77th percentile. That's going to do well for us as we look to find someone who's going to hit the long ball.

NYM - Francisco Alvarez Solo HR (2)

📏 415 ft | 💨 106.1 mph | 📐 32°
⚾️ 83.7 mph splitter (SFG - RHP Tyler Mahle)
🏟️ Out in 24/30 MLB parks

NYM (5) @ SFG (0)
🔺 4th#LGM pic.twitter.com/ExLPUEEgl9

— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) April 4, 2026

Alvarez gets a matchup against Jameson Taillon, who's struggling to get balls on the ground, and hitters are barreling. An appealing part for us about Taillon's current stat line is that he's allowing a 54.3% fly-ball rate. Tie that into the winds at Wrigley Field that are forecasted to be blowing out, and that might be a very solid recipe for us.

Those winds currently look like they'll be pushing the ball towards center and right field. That's not ideal for a righty like Alvarez, but he's generally hitting the ball more towards center field this season. Two of his long balls have also been deep to center, so I'm not as worried about the wind not helping him as much here as you may expect for a lefty.

For the pitch mix, Taillon's main arsenal for righties consists of cutters, sweepers, and four-seamers. He'll likely prioritize the sweeper, which has been solid for him, and a pitch Alvarez hasn't excelled against this season. But when he has to pivot to four-seamers and cutters is when we should get our advantages.

Alvarez has also traditionally crushed at Wrigley Field. He's posted a 1.844 OPS in seven games (before Friday), telling us he loves the friendly confines and should be comfortable hitting against whoever's on the mound. Specifically against Taillon, he's three-for-five with a double and a homer, so the familial data backs us up here in its small sample size.

I wouldn't hate a bet on a Mets lefty here if you're scared off by the right-on-right matchup, but Alvarez has been hitting too well for me to ignore. Let's pull for the 24-year-old to barrel one to center and start the day off on the right foot.

Christian Walker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+525, Hard Rock Bet)

Now let's go down to Houston, where I've got my eye on a solid matchup against Andre Pallante. Walker comes in as someone who might be a bit overlooked in Houston's lineup right now, especially with the successes of Yordan Alvarez and Cam Smith. But when it comes to the long ball, he's one of the more solid players for us to target.

Christian Walker ties it with one swing! pic.twitter.com/oygdqeS701

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 5, 2026

Most times, we're going to look for a platoon advantage, but there's actually a lot to love with this right-on-right matchup. Walker's hitting righties for a 182 wRC+ on the season, and three of his four homers have come against righties. Pallante has also struggled significantly more against righties than lefties, allowing a .402 wOBA against righties.

Over the last 14 days, we've also seen Walker increase his fly-ball rate just a touch to 45.9% with a 23.5% HR/FB rate. His barrel rate of 14.0% ranks in the 83rd percentile, so that gives us confidence that if he gets it in the air, he can barrel it.

The main obstacle here is that Pallante is generally a groundball pitcher. He's getting fewer grounders this season, though, so there's an opportunity. Hitters are putting up a 47.2% hard hit rate against the 27-year-old, so the ball should at least come screaming off the bat.

Pallante should attack Walker with a mix of four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders. The sinker could be an interesting pitch to watch as Pallante's got a .468 xwOBA with it this season, while Walker's crushing them for a .500 wOBA and a 61.1% hard hit rate. If Pallante chooses to attack with sliders, Walker has hit three of his four homers against sliders this season.

There's a lot to love in Houston, and if Walker can get a couple in the air, then I have faith that at least one of them will get out.

Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450, theScore Bet)

Now let's head to Coors Field, where we're expecting a clear day for the Rockies and Dodgers. The big names steal the spotlight, as we saw with Walker; we have yet another right-on-right advantage that we're going to target with Hernandez.

I'm normally targeting Hernandez against southpaws, but this season, he's been significantly better against righties. He's smashing them for a 170 wRC+, and all four of his homers have come against right-handers. Ryan Feltner, who will be opposing him on the mound, also has struggled mightily against righties as they're tagging him for a .573 wOBA on the short season.

LAD - Teoscar Hernández Solo HR (4)

📏 370 ft | 💨 104.2 mph | 📐 26°
⚾️ 93.5 mph four-seam fastball (NYM - RHP Tobias Myers)
🏟️ Out in 17/30 MLB parks

NYM (1) @ LAD (3)
🔻 6th#Dodgers pic.twitter.com/SVshf8Qgk0

— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) April 16, 2026

That's mostly due to struggles against Houston and San Diego in his last two starts. It's leading to a 19.5% barrel rate (2nd percentile) and a 53.7% hard-hit rate (8th percentile). Those are numbers we absolutely love to see when we're looking for someone to fade for homers.

Hernandez also looks to be the type of hitter this season who is really on when he's on. In each game that he's hit a homer, he's recorded multiple hits. Simply seeing the ball well is going to make for good results, so let's amplify that against a pitcher whom it seems everyone is seeing well.

Feltner is likely to attack Hernandez with sinkers, sliders, and four-seamers. Righties are hitting his sinker for a .562 wOBA and they're hitting his four-seamer for an .865 wOBA. He'll likely prioritize his slider more, which he's only allowing a .270 wOBA on.

But that will end up being strength on strength. Hernandez is demolishing sliders for a 1.025 wOBA this season. Small sample size, sure, but he's clearly seeing them well.

There's also some familial data here with Hernandez having seen Feltner eight times before while racking up four hits against him. None have been homers, but I think that changes on Saturday night.

Let's roll with Hernandez and cheer for a blast that heads deep into the Rocky Mountains (or the bleachers, that works too).

Mike Trout OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+277, DraftKings)

It's practically impossible not to notice what Mike Trout is doing right now. He hit five homers in four games against the Yankees and is finally looking like he's back to his crushing ways. Now he gets a matchup against Padres' starter German Marquez, one of the most homer-friendly pitchers in the league right now with a 3.46 HR/9.

All FIVE of Mike Trout's homers during the series at Yankee Stadium ⬇️ https://t.co/LAX7oFSnaw pic.twitter.com/23G4akLBiX

— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2026

That's mainly what we're going to be targeting here, and this is a fade of Marquez while backing Trout's current form. For much of the platoon and home/road splits, we're going a bit against the grain here. Trout has not performed well at Angel Stadium this season, but it's also only been five games. He also hasn't been on a streak like he is, so it's time for the tide to start turning.

Marquez has given up five home runs on the season. And while lefties are hitting him better, I feel there's no better option on the Angels right now than Trout. So we're going against the grain, but it's for good reason.

Hitters are barreling Marquez at an 11.1% rate, sitting in the 25th percentile. That's in direct contrast with Trout, who's barreling the ball at a league-best 29.4%. Tie that in with Marquez's 46.7% fly-ball rate, and it's easy to see that if the ball gets in the air, our chances of it leaving the yard look pretty good.

Marquez is likely to throw a mix of four-seamers, knuckle curves, and sinkers to Trout as he does to most righties. His four-seamer has performed well this season at a .101 wOBA, but it's paired with a .342 xwOBA. Trout has demolished four-seamers this year, so challenging him with one may be a tall task.

That leaves the secondary pitches to be Marquez's likely options. His knuckle curve has been one of his best pitches, coming in with a .263 wOBA and a .158 xwOBA. Trout hasn't seen a large mix of curves yet this season, but last season he mashed them for a .479 wOBA and a .523 xwOBA. With him in a zone like he is now, I'd lean more into those numbers than this season's numbers against curves.

When in doubt, I'll ride with Trout. And while we're going against the grain of some of the splits here, I can't look past Trout's current form. Give him something over the plate, and I've got faith that he'll send it deep into the Anaheim night.

Good luck with your bets, and let's have ourselves a day!

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