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Wide receiver A.J. Brown was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles on Day One of the 2022 NFL Draft. Sam Wagman breaks down what to expect of the star WR in fantasy football.
Earlier this month, following the shocking deals of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins and Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, elite wide receivers across the NFL had an epiphany: "Am I underpaid?" Prior to the 2022 offseason, there were only four wide receivers getting paid an average annual value (AAV) of $20 million, and only one was over $25 million: star DeAndre Hopkins. This all set the stage for a monumental trade to happen on Thursday night, day 1 of the NFL Draft: A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles for a first and third round pick.
It only made sense that with the salary cap finally rising again after a couple weird years in the COVID-19 landscape, the elite players would want to get paid. We have recently seen in the NBA players taking more of a power role in salary negotiations, even threatening long-term holdouts if they didn't get their way. Typically, teams get put between a rock and a hard place because it would seem that they don't have a choice but to acquiesce to the stars in this new market. Ergo, it was bound to make its way to NFL soon enough.
The past few weeks have been full of salary drama. Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, and Brown all decided to state their intent to earn new contracts this offseason, with Brown and Samuel going so far as to plan to not attend their respective team's voluntary offseason workouts that recently started. You had to think that things would blow up at some point, though most expected a Samuel trade, not one for Brown, but here we are.
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The A.J. Brown Trade
With the Eagles coming up to the 18th pick in the draft, Howie Roseman was on the phone getting a massive deal worked out. He was trading picks 18 and 101 to GM Jon Robinson and the Tennessee Titans for superstar wide receiver Brown.
This reportedly was not a trade that was spurred by the Eagles missing out on some of the draft's premier receivers in the first round. Howie Roseman was "running all over the building to get this deal done before the Eagles were on the clock at 18" per James Palmer on NFL Network. The Eagles gave a lot of credit to Brown and his agent getting the deal and subsequent four-year, $100 million extension ($57m guaranteed) done in a short period.
Brown now is the fourth-highest paid wide receiver in the NFL at a $25m AAV, and with the aforementioned Samuel and McLaurin as well as others like Marquise Brown and D.K. Metcalf in like to receive massive extensions as well, the Eagles come out ahead here getting a deal done under market value.
Directly after the trade was announced, we got this video from Jalen Hurts' Twitter. It's pretty clear that he was a driving factor, and had reportedly nudged Howie Roseman over the past season to try and acquire Brown, his longtime friend and one-time roommate.
Fantasy Football Impact of the A.J. Brown Trade
Brown immediately comes in and is the WR1 for the Eagles. DeVonta Smith may honestly function better as a ancillary option at this early point in his career, but there is no question that he is a budding alpha in his own right as well, making this easily the best WR tandem that the Eagles have had since Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson were in the midnight green uniforms.
From a numbers standpoint, I wouldn't expect Brown's averages to change that much. In three seasons in Tennessee, he averaged 62 catches on 98 targets for 998 yards and 8 touchdowns a season. When you consider that the run/pass ratios for Tennessee and Philadelphia were extremely similar with a 52.7/47.3% split for the Eagles and 50.7/49.3% for the Titans, which ranked 32nd and 31st, respectively, it is expected that Brown's role and target share will stay nearly the same.
While you do have to take into account that the pass catching players on the Eagles are better than who Brown has departed in Tennessee, we can infer that the Eagles do not make this move if they didn't want to throw the ball more going forward. Head coach Nick Sirianni spoke about how the Eagles plan to use Brown, noting that "we can see him on a lot of different routes that fit our offense that uses that play strength, that uses that quickness, and that’s where he’s so tough. You want guys that can win one-on-one matchups. And this guy has shown in the NFL that he will win one-on-one matchups.” It seems likely that they will line him up all over to create mismatches, and he should crush in the red zone as the team's primary threat.
Like I noted before, I don't expect Brown's numbers to change that much. I've tentatively moved him down two spots to WR8 in my rankings for this upcoming season, but I am extremely confident that the Eagles will use him in a manner where he will be the main red-zone weapon and he should dominate inside and outside the numbers as well. Watch out for that Eagles offense this season!
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