RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, as we convene following the 13th week of action that was capped off by a weird, weather-y victory that embodies Bill Belichick's crafty ways. For those of us who cannot control the weather to aid our team's efforts, let us now turn to the old-fashioned waiver wire. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). Let's get there with the best roster possible!
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. This late in the season, it may finally be time to hedge your players with direct handcuffs versus stashing outside fliers. Whatever your needs, here's my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 14.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill (QB, NO) - FAAB Bid: 6-8%
34% rostered
Hill may require surgery on his mallet finger but will reportedly play through it, which creates a double-edged sword for fantasy speculators. His foot injury looked all good as he romped for 101 yards on 11 carries against Dallas, but he only completed 19-of-41 passes with four interceptions too. Thank goodness Deonte Harris took an innocent slant to the house! That said, his throwing was at its worst and he still topped 20 fantasy points. That kind of range makes him an automatic add, especially with the Jets coming next.
Saints’ doctors determined that QB Taysom Hill suffered a mallet finger injury Thursday, but it will not require surgery considering it is not as extensive as the one Russell Wilson suffered earlier this year, per source. Hill now will try to play through the injury.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 3, 2021
Cam Newton (QB, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
29% rostered
Carolina limped into its bye week with a 23-point loss, the end of the year for Christian McCaffrey, and it just saw offensive coordinator Joe Brady get fired. Week 14 provides a volatile test for Cam Newton at home against the porous Falcons defense, which has me for one last ride. Miami’s defense is tough and Cam is still granted some rust, but Matt Rhule anticipates Cam starting against Atlanta in a game where Newton may hit top-12 numbers with his legs alone.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
19% rostered
While we await Fields’ progression from the rib injury, he should be a proactive add after the injury eclipsed the evolution we saw from his game in Weeks 8-9. Prior to the bye, Fields showed more aggression in running and pushing the ball downfield with his arm for a pair of top-12 weekly finishes. If he can go against Green Bay here for Week 14, he should have an outside chance at that mark again. He also gets Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, and the Giants to wrap up our fantasy season for higher upside in the FF playoffs.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Tevin Coleman (RB, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 20-30%
41% rostered
Coleman ran well as New York’s lead man, gaining 58 yards on 11 carries while adding three receptions for 19 yards. The Jets fell behind after scrapping early, which means there were only 13 total carries to go around. The matchup gets worse in Week 14 against New Orleans, but the opportunity alone makes him an add in most 14-team circles.
Tevin Coleman played 62% of the snaps and had 8 carries and 3 targets in the first half
Other Jets RBs combined for 2 carries and no targets
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 5, 2021
Dontrell Hilliard (RB, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 15-25%
40% rostered
Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman come out of their bye having sported a 50/50 snap split, but Hilliard excelled with 131 yards plus the score while running six additional routes. We must monitor the injury reports for Jeremy McNichols’ progress, as his return would impact Hilliard’s passing edge more compared to Foreman being the short-down, goal-line favorite.
Rex Burkhead (RB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%
23% rostered
It’s irresponsible for me to omit any starting running back, even if Houston largely ignores that facet of offense. The Texans were without David Johnson (thigh) on Sunday, but Burkhead still only tallied 45 total yards on nine touches. Rex means “King” in Latin, but there’s little worthy of royalty when you haven’t topped 40 rush yards in a game so far. Still, he gets Seattle and Jacksonville in the coming weeks for those even more desperate than Tevin Coleman territory.
*The bar is low when discussing Houston's backfield, I know. You can also throw a few bucks at Carlos Hyde if this whole benching JRob thing lingers. If you can wait through Philly's bye, then Miles Sanders' late-game ankle injury could thrust any of Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell, or Jordan Howard back into the flex mix. It's more likely they're all available in some capacity and cannibalize each other's value, though.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%
34% rostered
Gage was Atlanta’s most-used weapon on Sunday, as the veteran wideout caught 11-of-12 targets for 130 yards against Tampa Bay’s weakened secondary. He had nasty zeroes in Weeks 8 and 10, but he’s seen at least seven looks in ATL’s last three games with over 18 PPR points in his last two games. Carolina’s defense should put up more of a fight than Tampa or Jacksonville did, but the usage trend is clearly up.
K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN) - FAAB Bid: 8-12%
4% rostered
Adam Thielen was dinged by a high-ankle sprain early in the first quarter and left the game. Osborn stepped up with 4-47-1 on seven targets in a losing effort against Detroit (ha) while Justin Jefferson went Herculean again. Minnesota has a short week with TNF versus Pittsburgh coming, which Thielen should miss. That makes Osborn a fringe top-40 PPR option for me in a game where the run game can’t simply dominate a soft front.
Adam Thielen (ankle) left after 6 snaps Sunday. KJ Osborn:
* 70-of-76 snaps
* 47 wide, 22 slot, 1 backfield
* 44 routes on 47 Cousins dropbacks
* 7 targets for a 17% share— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 6, 2021
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
19% rostered
If Randall Cobb is out or limited by his groin injury, MVS’ range of outcomes ticks upwards from “deep threat prayer” to solid flex play. He isn’t getting much buzz yet as Green Bay comes out of their bye, but their upcoming SNF showdown with Chicago’s vulnerable D is a great spot for Valdes-Scantling. He’s seen 19 targets in Green Bay’s last two games, with my biggest fear being Chicago’s offense failing to force the action throughout 60 minutes. That’s a risk I’m willing to take for someone who can smash with 75-yard TDs on any play.
Josh Reynolds (WR, DET) - FAAB Bid: 5-7%
4% rostered
Reynolds caught four-of-seven targets for 69 nice yards in Week 13, which goes nicely with his 3-70-1 Thanksgiving “breakout” to make him Detroit’s alpha perimeter play. I know many will flock to Amon-Ra St. Brown after his PPR fireworks show, but Minnesota is atrocious against the slot so just tread lightly. Maybe 4-6% in full PPR formats for ARSB. In what’s sure to be a gritty game, Jared Goff should need to take a few downfield shots to Reynolds.
Breshad Perriman, (WR, TB) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
1% rostered
Tampa Bay will be without Antonio Brown and clearly don’t trust Tyler Johnson as the third wideout, which left Perriman running 46 routes. That’s right there with Mike Evans’ 49 and Chris Godwin’s 47. He only saw three targets and is still ramping up, but the opportunity for growth is there with that sort of on-field volume. Even as the fifth option, Perriman could be a sneaky hit down the stretch in a top-scoring Bucs offense.
*Another quick option here might be LAC's Jalen Guyton given Keenan Allen's placement on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday. He is vaccinated, per reports, and so isn't ruled out for Week 14 automatically. Guyton's 34 snaps and 21 routes run were third-most among Charger WRs on Sunday as he worked ahead of Josh Palmer (22 snaps, 13 routes run).
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN) - FAAB Bid: 3-6%
30% rostered
It’s understandable for the immediate reaction to Adam Thielen’s injury to result in clicking on K.J. Osborn’s name, but Conklin should absorb a target or two as well. Despite Minnesota seeing shootout scenarios on a weekly basis, it was this past Sunday that saw him set a season-high with nine targets for seven catches and 56 yards. Tight ends usually live and die by the touchdown in our universe, but that kind of volume cannot be ignored.
A similar argument keeps Gerald Everett (averaging seven looks per game since Seattle’s Week 9 bye) on our radars as well.
Over the last four weeks, Tyler Conklin already led the NFL in RZ TGT with 9 (Brate and Air Freier tied at 8, and yes, WRs included) and tied for 2nd in EZ TGT (5 - Diggs, Lockett, DK, Henry, JJeff with Andrews at 6) before Thielen out this week
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) December 6, 2021
Foster Moreau (TE, LV) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
23% rostered
Everyone was a week too early to the party, obviously. Moreau and the Raiders fell flat against Washington, with Moreau catching just one pass for 34 yards on the day. Darren Waller doesn’t seem likely to play for a Week 14 showdown with Kansas City, and that’ll keep Moreau in play. The Chiefs have played better on defense of late, but Dalton Schultz tagged them for 6-53-0 in Week 11 while Denver’s Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam combined for a 7-54-0 line. Hope springs eternal if Derek Carr can come alive.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
5% rostered
Seals-Jones was inactive on Sunday despite returning to practice in a limited capacity last week, which bodes well for his Week 14 prospects against Dallas. WFT will need him after Logan Thomas suffered a season-ending knee injury, which puts RSJ back in the territory that saw him garner 22 targets in a three-game span within Weeks 5-7.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans Saints Defense (at NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 3-6%
45% rostered
Talk about a tee-off spot. The Saints defense hasn’t had a great scoring week in over a month thanks to only four turnovers in their last five games, but the Jets are a different type of opponent. New Orleans has registered multiple sacks in 10-of-12 games thus far and have a pair of four-interception games to their name in 2021. Most sportsbooks are opening around New Orleans being favored by six with a paltry 43.5 O/U, painting them as a solid stream here before taking on Tom Brady in Week 15.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense (vs. NYG) - FAAB Bid: 3-6%
26% rostered
The Chargers were already a plus play when a Mike Glennon matchup was approaching, but now he’s dealing with a concussion and Big Blue may turn to Jake Fromm. While Saquon Barkley continues to look more comfortable on the field, he’s unable to carry a Fromm offense on his back. Oh, I didn’t mention that LAC just racked up six sacks and four turnovers against Cincinnati? Yeah, things could get messy.
Green Bay Packers Defense (vs. CHI) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
34% rostered
As much as I hope for a flashy Justin Fields return, the Packers are still playing well and get a home spot against either a rusty Fields or Andy Dalton. Before their bye, Green Bay forced three turnovers in a victory over the Rams and the home game prior to that saw them hold Seattle to zero points. The Pack are hot and if they can stymie David Montgomery, then another top-five week could be imminent.
Tennessee Titans Defense (vs. JAX) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
23% rostered
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars look lost on the football field, and Tennessee is the next defense that they’ll thump into. With James Robinson at less than 100%, no standout receiving option, and a defense that won’t win the field-position battles, even a watered-down Titans offense should put them in a hole where the defense can smash them.
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