Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

December 2, 2021

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 13. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

There are plenty of injuries fantasy managers need to stay on top of this week. Darren Waller and Cole Kmet both did not practice on Wednesday and Pat Freiermuth is still in the concussion protocol. All three could have big fantasy implications as fantasy managers are surely in win-or-go-home mode, so be sure to keep an eye on all three players.

As we're inching closer and closer to the fantasy playoffs, it's a good time to start looking at some of the players with the best schedules left on the docket. There's no player with a better schedule than Logan Thomas, so if you're able to add him off the waiver wire, fantasy managers should absolutely do that. A few other players that are set up very nicely in terms of their schedule are Noah Fant, James O'Shaughnessy, Jared Cook, and Zach Ertz. Darren Waller also has excellent Week 16 and 17 matchups, which could surely turn some fantasy championship matchups.

On the flip side, there might be no more difficult schedule than what Dawson Knox has. Other tight ends with very tough schedules include T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, and Mike Gesicki. It's important to pay attention to playoff schedules, especially at tight end unless you're rostering one of the top-four studs. Otherwise, just like fantasy managers do with defenses as they look for the best matchups for the fantasy playoffs, managers should be doing the same at tight end.

Where is the Love for Pat Freiermuth?

Freiermuth deserves better than what the fantasy community is giving to him. I mean, he is being solidly, solidly disrespected. Check this out... Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz, Noah Fant, and Hunter Henry are all rostered more than Freiermuth in Yahoo! leagues. In ESPN leagues, it's a little bit better – only Higbee and Fant are more rostered. There are certainly other players but those are the ones that stand out as the most glaring. He's 61% and 65.6% rostered on both platforms. Consider, however, that since Week 8, the Muth is the No. 1 tight end in the NFL in half-PPR scoring. In terms of PPG averages, he's No. 3 over that span.

Pat Freiermuth fantasy finishes in games without Eric Ebron:

TE3, TE2 and TE6 👀

— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) November 29, 2021

It's probably important to mention here that Eric Ebron is currently on IR. If you do not have Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews on your roster, you need to stop reading this right now and go see if Freiermuth is available on waivers because apparently there's about a 35-40% chance that he is. If he is, you need to add him because those are the only three tight ends that should be ranked ahead of Freiermuth for the rest of the season. Darren Waller would make four, but he's not practicing this week with a knee ailment which is not ideal. If you want to include Waller there, I won't put up a fight, but that still leaves Freiermuth as a top-five tight end for the rest of the season. What is it about Freiermuth that fantasy managers should be drooling over?

Five players have 8+ RZ targets since Week 8:

Pat Freiermuth- 11
Diontae Johnson- 10
Cooper Kupp- 9
Stefon Diggs- 8
Van Jefferson- 8

— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) November 24, 2021

Red zone targets. Fantasy managers know the tight end position tends to be a touchdown or bust position and that's especially true once you get outside the top-four studs of Waller, Kelce, Andrews, and Kittle. Since Week 8, no one in the NFL has more such targets than Freiermuth. That's really not all fantasy managers should be loving about his rest of the season projections.

Over the past four weeks, Freiermuth is fifth in targets per game among tight ends. He's been nipping Chase Claypool's heels during this recent stretch as Ben Roethlisberger's second-most targeted player. Touchdowns are fickle and have a tendency to come and go, like C.J. Uzomah's. It's not a guarantee Freiermuth keeps scoring touchdowns, but it's a better bet than most when he's so heavily targeted in that area.

It should be noted that Freiermuth is in the concussion protocol, but did practice fully today and appears to have a good chance to be cleared by the weekend. That is something to monitor as the week goes on.

Noah Fant vs Cole Kmet?

This was never a question I thought we'd be asking ourselves as fantasy managers especially on the cusp of the fantasy football playoffs, but here we are. Since Week 7 – the perfect halfway point of the season thus far – fantasy managers should take notice of Fant's freefall and Kmet's steady climb. Since Week 7, Kmet is the TE16 while Fant is all the way down at TE38 in half-PPR. Their PPG average is 6.9 for Kmet and just 4.8 for Fant, who has been outscored by teammate Albert Okwuegbunam.

Since the halfway point of the 2021 season, Kmet has out-targeted Fant by 1.3 targets per game. That doesn't sound like a lot, but in terms of where they rank among tight ends, it becomes evident that it's certainly worth paying attention to. During that timespan, Kmet is the fourth-most targeted tight end, while Fant is the 15th. There isn't a statistical category since Week 7 that Fant is actually performing better than Kmet. We're going to do some rapid-fire on some statistics, all of which will be in terms of their per-game average and will include their rank amongst other tight ends.

• Receptions Per Game: 4.6 (5th) vs 3.8 (12th)
• Yards Per Game: 46 (9th) vs 30 (24th)
• Air Yards: 50 (10th) vs 26 (28th)
• Average Depth of Target: 7.5 (17th) vs 5.0 (31st)
• Market Share: 21.2% (8th) vs 19.1% (11th)

Based on the recent stats, Kmet seems to be a no-brainer winner, but things in fantasy football are never that easy. In Week 13, Fant will be taking on the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed the fifth-most points to tight ends at 9.6 points in half-PPR. Kmet, on the other hand, will be facing off against the Arizona Cardinals, who have allowed the second-fewest points to tight ends at 4.5 per game. It should be noted the Chiefs' defense is playing much better as of late. They've given up just 47 points in their last four games.

Over their last four games, opposing tight ends have scored just 6.0 points per game, which would be tied as the 25th-fewest in the league. And they've faced some good tight ends during that stretch. Two of which were Darren Waller and Dalton Schultz. The third was Evan Engram. The Packers were the fourth opponent and they don't have anyone of note at tight end, but regardless, the defense has played much better.

When you factor in the way the Chiefs' defense has been playing lately and Kmet's usage, it becomes clear that fantasy managers should be lining up to start Kmet this week despite the unfortunate matchup. As far as who fantasy managers should want for the rest of the season, that is clear too – give me the player who is ascending and only getting better and that's Kmet.

Fantasy managers need to keep an eye on Kmet as he did not practice Wednesday due to tending to an injury.

Can we Trust Gerald Everett?

The better question might be, can we trust anyone on the Seahawks? Luckily for Everett, the bar is set much lower for tight ends. Since Russell Wilson's return to the lineup in Week 10, Everett has 21 targets. On a per-game basis, that ranks fifth among tight ends during that span. He is also fifth in receptions and seventh in receiving yards. In half-PPR, Everett clocks in as the TE5 since Week 10, which is ahead of George Kittle and Darren Waller.

Gerald Everett has a 22.3% target share since Russell Wilson returned. Second only to Mark Andrews at the tight end position.

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) November 30, 2021

The Seattle offense is in shambles. Since Wilson's return, they've scored a combined 28 points, but that hasn't stopped Everett from being a valuable tight end. The biggest problem right now for the Seahawks is that they cannot run the ball, so defenses are able to neglect that aspect of the game and instead solely focus on limiting downfield options Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, which they have done. This has often led to Wilson having to dump the ball off and that's where Everett comes in handy.

Can we trust that moving forward? Fantasy managers would be best not to buy too much into Everett's last three weeks. The target numbers have been excellent, but one must assume Lockett and Metcalf will start commanding a bigger piece of the pie eventually. In Week 13 especially, fantasy managers should be looking elsewhere as the Seahawks take on the 49ers, who are the toughest defense in the league for opposing tight ends. San Fran is allowing just 3.7 half-PPR points per game.

However, moving forward, Everett has carved out a role in the Seattle offense and he's earned Wilson's trust. This is a very consolidated offense with really only three pass-catchers Wilson will focus on. With the run game pretty much nonexistent and a defense that struggles getting off the field, fantasy managers may see Seattle employ a more pass-heavy approach. Well, that is if Pete Carroll comes to his senses. Still, this offense isn't one fantasy managers can trust right now and that includes Everett. That said, he's moved into the streamer category and can be someone fantasy managers consider during the right matchup.

Time to Bury Evan Engram?

The short answer: yes – yes, it is. But let's give this guy a few minutes of our time for the last time. Engram is currently averaging 5.2 targets per game, which actually clocks in at 12th among all tight ends. He's seeing more targets than Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, Dawson Knox, Cole Kmet, and Tyler Higbee. Here's the thing though: all of those guys are ahead of him in terms of fantasy points scored. In terms of points per game among tight ends, he's 23rd.

Not only are the Eagles bad against opposing tight ends, but the Giants could be without both Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard

Meanwhile, Darius Slay is gonna lock down Kenny Golladay on the outside

Believe it or not, this sets up PERFECTLY as a smash spot for Evan Engram

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 26, 2021

Adam's a smart guy. Really smart. It's a trend over here at RotoBaller. Okay, but seriously.....everything Adam tweeted before Engram's smash spot against Philly last week was true. In Week 12, he had six targets, which was eighth-most among tight ends that week so he didn't lack volume or opportunity. Where did he finish? TE22.

Engram cannot be considered a weekly starter. He can't even be considered a streamer in the best of matchups. He is nothing but waiver fodder that fantasy managers should let their opposition pick up for his name value. It's the only value he's going to provide.

Best Streamers for Week 13

1. Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

He's back! And fantasy managers shouldn't waste any time getting him back into their starting lineups.

Despite playing less than 80% of snaps in his first game back and only running 68% of routes, Logan Thomas got 6 targets - including 2 red zone targets and an end zone target.

In the first 3 weeks before injury, he played 100% of offensive snaps.

Every snap. pic.twitter.com/KfsLRtGolc

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 30, 2021

Thomas wasted little time getting involved in the offense. He only ran 26 routes but was targeted on six of them – good for a 23% target per route run rate. Just for a point of reference, Travis Kelce is targeted on 21.4% of his routes. Washington is very much in need of a No. 2 target behind Terry McLaurin and Thomas should have no problem settling into that role. This really should be the last time Thomas can be considered a streamer, but his rostership rate is still much too low.

Not to mention, his schedule could not really be any better for the rest of the season. In Week 13, he plays against the Raiders, who are allowing the most points to opposing tight ends in half-PPR scoring. In Weeks 14 and 16, he plays the Cowboys, who have given up the 17th-most points. In Weeks 15 and 17, Thomas gets the Eagles, who are giving up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Buy. Buy. Buy.

2. Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders

Moreau has always been a productive player considering the minimal role he was asked to fill. In 2019, his rookie season, Moreau finished with five touchdowns, displaying a good knack in the end zone. In 2020, he caught 70% of his targets and finished with a 20 yard per reception average. He's a talented enough player to take advantage of an increase in playing time and that's what he's looking at in Week 13 with Darren Waller looking like he's going to sit out with a knee injury.

In his only start of the season, Foster Moreau played 100% of the snaps, ran a route on 30-of-35 dropbacks and finished with 6-60-1. #Raiders

— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) December 1, 2021

Fantasy managers should be planning for Waller's absence this week and that puts Moreau in play as a one-week filler. The Raiders will play Washington, who has been fairly average against the tight end position, allowing 7.3 points, which is 18th-most.

3. Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

That's right, Higbee is nothing more than a streamer. Fantasy managers should not be treating him as an every-week starter anymore. Nine out of his 11 games, he's been under 50 yards receiving, and one of the games where he went over 50 – he finished with 51. He's only scored in double-figures once this season despite having three touchdowns, which shows fantasy managers just how low his ceiling is. To make matters worse, the floor is pretty much zero. He's scored 0.8 and 1.3 points in two weeks this season. There's no reason fantasy managers continue to put him into their starting lineup with a second thought. He should only be utilized in good matchups.

It just so happens Higbee has one this week. In Week 13, the Rams have the Jaguars, and L.A. is on a three-game losing streak it is looking to end. Darrell Henderson is banged up with a thigh issue and didn't practice on Wednesday. If he doesn't play or is limited, the Rams are likely to lean on Matthew Stafford and the passing game.

Higbee is still first in the NFL among tight ends in red-zone targets and is actually tied for fourth at 16 with Davante Adams and Robert Woods. In terms of targets inside the 10-yard line, Higbee is second among tight ends with eight and tied for fifth among all players with Stefon Diggs, Mike Williams, Michael Pittman Jr., and Adam Thielen. That's what fantasy managers should be looking for when they look for a streamer. Higbee is in a good spot this weekend, although fantasy managers should keep their expectations modest.

Players to Avoid in Week 13

1. Evan Engram, New York Giants

He was mentioned above, and for all of those reasons, fantasy managers need to look elsewhere. Nothing but disappointment comes with starting Evan Engram.

2. Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks

He was also mentioned above as someone fantasy managers can't really trust yet but can be used in the right spots. Against the 49ers and their league-best tight end defense is not one of them. Consider someone else.

3. Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Henry has scored 42.4% of his fantasy points from touchdowns, which is an extremely high number. Despite scoring seven touchdowns on the season, Henry has only scored in double-digits three times. He has scored five points or less on five occasions so starting Henry means pretty much hoping and praying he finds the end zone. Without it, he's going to give fantasy managers very little.

There aren't a ton of options at tight end, which I think we're all very much aware of and it might be tough to bench the TE8 on the season, but he's going up against the Buffalo Bills this Sunday. They've been one of the stringiest defenses to opposing tight ends. They've given up the sixth-fewest points to tight ends this season at just 5.3 points per game. Based on what Henry has put on paper this season, there's virtually no chance of a good game without him finding the end zone and those odds in a tough matchup are significantly lowered. If fantasy managers are forced to start him, expectations should be lowered.

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