Fantasy Football Early-Round Overvalued Draft Picks (QB, RB, WR, TE)

July 20, 2026

Nick's 2026 fantasy football overvalued players and potential busts in the early rounds. NFL players with inflated ADPs to avoid in fantasy football drafts.

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It's easy to get caught up in the positives and find ourselves hyperfixated on the high scores, top players, and who will be the next big thing. But we can't ignore the other side of the equation, as several disappointments emerge following lofty expectations that sandbag our best efforts. We're here to focus on the negatives and examine some players whose fantasy output may fall short of your draft-day clicks.

These early picks are poised to underperform their average draft position (ADP) and have you scrambling to make up the difference. As always, the term overvalued does not mean the player is bad/undraftable, so take this framework as relative to the ADP. All ADP data presented is for Half-PPR formats from aggregate ADP as of 07/14/2026.

Early-Round Overvalued Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams (CHI), QB6

Last year, we had Patrick Mahomes II in this slot as the QB6, and we’re right back to it. Given the level of NFL talent, the typical 10-12 teams per league seeking a QB, and draft patterns, this area of the rankings chart comes to represent folks getting antsy to pull up players on the board. And before we lay into things, let us remind you that overvalued doesn’t mean “terrible,” “bad,” or “hopeless.” Breathe.

Williams made big strides in Year 2, enjoying the tutelage and system of Ben Johnson and a new generation of pass-catcher around him. They took more aggressive shots, leading to 400 more passing yards on six additional attempts compared to his rookie year, even as the completion rate dropped from 62.5% to 58.1%. Of course, that only yielded 3,942 pass yards.

The biggest boost came in the end zone, as he went from a 20:6 TD:INT mark to 27:7, with three rush TDs after failing to find paydirt in ‘24. Heck, he even caught a TD! While more scoring does reflect Johnson’s improved coaching environment, we know not to build a market on them.

Of the quarterbacks who played at least six games between Weeks 1-17 in 2025, Williams’ 19.1 point-per-game figure was tied for eighth with Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts. Again, that is good, but why pay up for the top of a tier when you can get Hurts, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, and others with similar production and proven ceilings a bit later?

Frankly, Williams still has a lot to nail down, and the QB6 price tag is lofty for the risk-reward payouts. Per Pro Football Reference, Williams was the only passer with a sub-70% on-target rate with more than 250 pass attempts last year. And the guys between 150-250 attempts who also sat below that were J.J. McCarthy, Shedeur Sanders, and Brady Cook.

And you can hate on DJ Moore all you like, but downgrading from him to Kalif Raymond, Jahdae Walker, or third-round pick Zavion Thomas is notable. Rome Odunze caused murmurs by describing his foot injury in less-than-glowing terms. Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland are the sources of hype around Williams, but neither is established.

In the end, Williams is extremely fun to watch, but I’m paying enough to watch it on my television. The premium to get him on my fantasy team is too rich for my blood.

I've gone back and forth with where to rank Williams and currently have him at QB10, behind Herbert, Dak and Lawrence, just ahead of my upside targets Dart, Kyler

So I do like Williams, but don't think I will have much with his ADP being QB6

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 14, 2026

Early-Round Overvalued Running Backs

Ashton Jeanty (LV), RB5

Jeanty has lots of room to grow from being last year’s RB17 on a half-PPR per-game basis (min. 6 games) to materializing as a top-five RB. He turned 266 rushes into just 975 yards and five TDs (3.7 YPC), catching 55-of-73 targets for 346 yards and another five scores.

The versatility and opportunity are clear, given the lack of a real threat on the depth chart, but the disappointing offensive line is still in shambles. Klint Kubiak is a smart cookie, but is he a miracle worker?

C Tyler Linderbaum and G Spencer Burford are not high-profile additions, with the right side of the line being weakest thanks to RT D.J. Glaze. PFF is not perfect, but they graded him with a woeful 54.9 run block score. The metrics can be a bit wonky, though extreme scores beg questions.

Maybe Jeanty will only run behind LT Kolton Miller, whose ankle injury robbed him of many games in ‘25. Maybe Fernando Mendoza plays above his expectation, and Kubiak protects his prized rookie with lots of quick pops to Jeanty and Brock Bowers in the short/intermediate field.

The first round should not feel like this wide of a ceiling/floor distribution, at least in my experience!

Quinshon Judkins (CLE), RB21

Judkins did well to collect 827 yards and plunge seven TDs in on 230 attempts across 14 games, grinding to a 3.6 YPC figure with 26-171-0 receiving before it all came to a halt. The rookie dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula in Week 16, which obviously required surgery.

While all reports about his recovery have been optimistic, you need to be Superman to produce behind one of the worst projected offensive lines on my card. Todd Monken will have to work around LT Spencer Fano and hope he can overshadow lesser run blocking from LG Zion Johnson and C Elgton Jenkins.

And then there’s the dreaded gamescript demons. Jared Verse is good, but no one is Myles Garrett, and this defense could prove to be rather awful. Can the secondary hold up when the quarterback has another second or two? I’m bearish there. We could see a lot of Dylan Sampson when playing from behind. Then there’s the poor QB room and lackluster WR corps. Meh.

In fantasy football, we need touchdown equity from running backs that aren’t being targeted 75+ times in the passing game

These averaged implied totals give me “some” pause on Jeremiyah Love, Quinshon Judkins, Ashton Jeanty, and Travis Etienne specifically in 2026

📸 @kyle_borg pic.twitter.com/JaXnNdvFgk

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) May 16, 2026

Early-Round Overvalued Wide Receivers

Rapid fire!

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR), WR18

McMillan wound up with 70 catches for 1,1014 yards and seven TDs over a strong 17-game rookie campaign. Tet deserves his flowers for surpassing 1,000 yards in a Bryce Young offense, but the gap between him and Jalen Coker may not be nearly as wide as the ADP margin suggests.

Tetairoa McMillan median fantasy PPG with and without Jalen Coker last season

With (11 games) - 11
Without (6 games) - 12.6

And then, after the team’s Week 14 bye, here’s how Coker and McMillan stacked up

Coker scored 70.4 fantasy points in these five games, McMillan just 48.9 https://t.co/uenXrlaTq5 pic.twitter.com/4tSRoAH6jI

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) June 16, 2026

With Young’s output already limited, sharing more of what little Young can give will leave us reliant on touchdowns and riding a tightrope. There are greener pastures around him on the board.

Rashee Rice (KC, WR11)

You’re ponying up for both Rice and Mahomes to have their recovered knees hold up across the year, and you’ll need both of them to be at their best come December when fantasy titles are being decided. I respect those who want to dance with that devil, but sprinkle in the off-field issues he keeps finding, and I’m investing elsewhere.

Nico Collins (HOU, WR9)

Much like McMillan and Young, I just don’t want to build around C.J. Stroud in 2026. That promising rookie form was many moons ago, and the game looks fast for him at this time. Then Collins has his own history of dings and dents, which will have me scrolling by.

Malik Nabers (NYG, WR17)

If Rice’s knee was scary, then Nabers’ medical situation is akin to how I felt as a child watching The Ring. Every seven days, I’m going to be sitting there scrolling for pregame updates on how Nabers is moving. With the Giants’ new regime readying the roster to play some bullyball on the ground, I’m not keen on 2026 Nabers.

Early-Round Overvalued Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL), TE6

Many will always hold a special place in their hearts for Pitts after the 40-point explosion in Week 15, but the man still averaged just 9.9 FPPG (half-PPR). That broke down to 88 catches for 928 yards and five touchdowns, trailing only Trey McBride’s wild 126 receptions and 1,239 yards on the TE leaderboard.

However, you have to remember the context around this rise in usage. It isn’t as simple as, “I knew Pitts was good, and finally Atlanta realized it too!” His team-leading 118 targets came with Drake London missing five games, Darnell Mooney regressing into the ether, and no suitable No. 3 receiver on the roster.

We’re just one year removed from when Pitts had a 47-602-4 line on 74 targets across a 17-game season. London got his fill with 158 looks, with Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III combining for nearly 200 targets as well. And then there’s Bijan Robinson, naturally. A premier receiving option out of the backfield cannot be ignored.

Your decision point boils down to two points. Your belief around Tua Tagovailoa bringing a more stable arm to the table, which the team will want to be throwing near the end zone. And whether Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson, and Olamide Zaccheaus can outdo 2025 Mooney, David Sills V, and the lot. It’s a low bar, and I think they clear it.

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