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Jamie Calandro's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/20/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin McGonigle, and others!
Another week has passed! Before we get to the baseball, I want to shout out Scott Fish and the whole FantasyCares crew who ran a wonderful live draft in Boston yesterday. I'm relatively happy with the first ten picks of my draft, and I look forward to finishing it online. If you're involved in the Scott Fish Bowl, you know it's the best thing going in fantasy.
All right - to baseball! Every team is in action tonight, and the DFS slates have a whopping 14 games to choose from. We're going to be looking for the best HR props, and some games stick out right away. We have a wind game in Wrigley Field, and the juggernaut Nationals lineup heads to Coors for the next three games. Balls will be flying, so let's see where the best spot to attack is.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, July 20, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/20/2026)
Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+220, DraftKings)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has come out of the gate a little slow in the second half, with only one hit and six strikeouts in the three-game series against the Twins. There's no better cure-all for the MVP candidate than a wind game at home against another AL Central team, and he should be raring to go against Jack Flaherty and company.
As I said, Crow-Armstrong is on an MVP pace with a 20-20 season already under his belt, along with an .893 OPS. He has a .389 wOBA and .235 ISO against RHP this season, along with a 15.7% barrel rate. Opposing pitcher Flaherty has allowed a 45.5% HHR to left-handers this season, and has been much worse on the road (1.75 WHIP, .196 ISO allowed).
The wind at Wrigley Field is one of the most impactful weather scenarios in all of baseball. Currently, the forecast is calling for sustained 15 MPH winds blowing straight out to center, and it's going to be 80 degrees at game time. The odds of homers in the game currently sit at O4.5 (FanDuel), and I'll be taking the over while betting Crow-Armstrong to belt one of them.
Pete Crow-Armstrong goes deep for the second time tonight 💪 pic.twitter.com/2HXzKiQTib
— MLB (@MLB) July 8, 2026
Kevin McGonigle OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375, Hard Rock)
In wind games at Wrigley, everyone flocks to the home team Cubbies (rightfully so), but don't forget that another team is also playing. Tonight it's the Tigers, and they're matching the Cubs' 5.9 IRT with a 5.6 mark of their own. Riley Greene seems the most likely to go yard, but at +220, it's too close to Crow-Armstrong. Rookie Kevin McGonigle strikes me as the savvier play.
McGonigle is not a typical "power play" we like to target for these HR props (nine homers), but there are signs that the power could increase as the warm weather months continue. McGonigle is barreling at a respectable 11.9% rate against RHP this season, and his OPS sits at .819. He just homered in yesterday's game and is 3-for-8 with two XBH in his last two games, so a hot streak could be on the horizon.
Jameson Taillon will take the hill for the Cubs, and he's allowed a 14.9% barrel rate, .304 ISO, and 11 homers to lefty bats. McGonigle leads off for Detroit, so there's a good chance he'll get five plate appearances in a game that's supposed to be high-scoring.
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