College Football Betting Picks - Heisman Futures

August 10, 2021

Nick Federline's top college football betting picks for the 2021 Heisman Trophy race in CFB. He analyzes Vegas' futures bets and recommends top expert bets.

The upcoming college football season has much more certainty than we were afforded at this time a year ago. After battling through various testing requirements, travel restrictions, uneven and abridged schedules, and players opting out, the 2020 college football season played through successfully. In 2020, Alabama wide receiver Devonta Smith broke a 30-year drought since the last receiver had won the Heisman trophy. Smith parlayed his historic season into a top-10 draft selection with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Of the top ten vote-getters in the 2020 Heisman voting, only sixth-place vote-getter, and Iowa State running back, Breece Hall returns in 2021. Devonta Smith (Eagles), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Mac Jones (Patriots), Kyle Trask (Buccaneers), Najee Harris (Steelers), Justin Fields (Bears), Zach Wilson (Jets), Ian Book (Saints), and Kyle Pitts (Falcons) have all moved on to the NFL, leaving this year's competition ripe for the taking.

As the 2021 fall college football season approaches, stay tuned for all of our preseason and weekly coverage of the 2021 college football season. Every week this season, we will bring you expert betting picks and content to help guide you through the college football season.

A History of the Heisman Trophy

The Heisman trophy, which is annually awarded to the "most outstanding player in college football," was first awarded in 1935. In a normal year, all living Heisman trophy winners and the current year's finalists are invited to New York City to welcome the newest member of their elite group.

The Heisman trophy has been dominated in recent years by quarterbacks, but that has not always been the case. Up until the turn of the 21st Century, running backs were the typical winners. With the way that the game has changed and the introduction of the air raid offenses, expect the recent dominance of quarterbacks to continue. Below is the list of historical Heisman winners by position.

In recent years, the foregone conclusion in most years is that a quarterback on a contending team should enter the year as a favorite to win it. This year's odds reflect that, as eight of the last ten Heisman award winners below have been signal-callers.

The Favorites

The long line of successful Oklahoma quarterbacks under head coach Lincoln Riley continues to grow. After seeing Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray bring back-to-back Heisman trophies to Norman, and Jalen Hurts' second place finish in the 2019 race, expectations were (and still are) sky high for redshirt sophomore Spencer Rattler. Rattler had a promising first season in charge, completing 67.5% of his passes for just over 3,000 yards, and with a 28-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rattler doesn't quite offer the same level of running ability as his three predecessors, but his stable of talented receivers - namely Marvin Mims, freshman phenom Mario Williams, and Theo Wease - can go toe-to-toe with almost any other receiver group in the nation. Rattler is the favorite to win the Heisman at +550 odds, and it is easy to see why Vegas is such a big fan of the young Phoenix, Arizona, native.

After a disastrous 2018 football season, North Carolina fired head coach Larry Fedora and replaced him with former Texas legend Mack Brown. Recruiting instantly improved in Chapel Hill, most notably by flipping a 6-foot quarterback named Sam Howell from his previous commitment to ACC rival Florida State. Howell, who hails from the Charlotte suburb of Indian Trail about 150 miles from North Carolina's campus, started instantly as a freshman in 2019 and led the Tar Heels improbably to a bowl game right away. Howell has thrown for 68 touchdowns compared with 14 interceptions in his 25 career starts, and improved his efficiency last season by increasing his completion percentage from 61% to 68%. With seemingly more room to grow, and a likely NFL future awaiting him after this season, Howell's +1700 price makes him one of the favorites and someone worthwhile monitoring on the futures market this season.

For the past few years, the USC Trojans have faded from the mid-2000s glory that former coach Pete Carroll, and stars Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, Dwayne Jarrett and Mike Williams elevated the program to. While no slouch, the Trojans are 44-23 under head coach Clay Helton and are competing for Pac-12 South titles rather than national titles at the moment. Junior quarterback Kedon Slovis would like to change that though, and if he can return to his freshman year form then it is certainly doable. Slovis threw for 30 touchdowns against nine interceptions in 2019, only to fall back to earth with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season (in only six games). Slovis' gunslinger mentality does make him prone to more turnovers, but the passing-centric attack of Helton's offense will allow Slovis to rack up the necessary stats to keep up in a Heisman race. Considering his top two receivers - Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns - are now in the NFL, Slovis will need junior Drake London to become a go-to threat and true freshman Michael Jackson III will likely need to emerge as the red-zone threat. If this materializes and USC makes a run in the wide-open Pac-12, then Slovis at +2500 odds is pretty easy to visualize.

The Georgia Bulldogs' 2020 season on offense was a tale of two seasons. Former walk-on and "mailman" Stetson Bennet provided some game manager stability last year, but didn't have the game-breaking ability needed to take the team to the next level, as evidenced in blowout losses to Alabama and Florida. Enter, JT Daniels. The former 5-star recruit and USC transfer started the final four games, all victories, of the season with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions.  On the back of this small sample size performance and his pedigree as a top-fledged quarterback recruit, Daniels is now being hyped as one of the top Heisman favorites this year at a +1200 price. While the talent is there, there are much better values available on the board than this price.

 
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Sleepers

When West Virginia head coach Neal Brown took over the program in 2019, he brought in a Bowling Green transfer quarterback by the name of Jarret Doege with little to no fanfare. The preseason attention focused on Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall, who started the season but played ineffectively. In what was essentially a lost season, coach Brown held Doege on the sidelines until the final four games of 2019, thus preserving his redshirt. This long-term strategy paid off in 2020, as Doege exploded to complete 64% of his passes and threw 14 touchdowns against a mere four interceptions. Playing in a premier conference, and with the emerging Leddie Brown to assist him in the backfield, Doege is a very accomplished and experienced passer with a much improved ecosystem around him. Getting a quality quarterback with 33 career starts under his belt and a reasonable path towards a January 1 bowl game at a +15000 price is worth looking into.

The Liberty Flames had an incredibly effective 2020 season under head coach Hugh Freeze's leadership. The Flames went 10-1, including a 37-34 overtime Cure Bowl win over the previously-undefeated Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Quarterback Malik Willis was the engine that powered the offense, pacing the team in both passing and rushing. The former Auburn transfer, in his first season at the helm, completed 64% of his passes for 2,250 yards, threw 20 touchdowns against six interceptions, and the only loss on the whole season was a 1-point road loss to an 8-win NC State team. Willis also generated problems for opponents with his legs, averaging 6.7 yards per carry to tally 944 total rushing yards and 14 scores on the ground. The biggest obstacle for Willis will be his schedule, playing as an independent, and the lack of quality opponents. While a +4000 price is juicy, Willis will need to put up video game numbers to compete with the Power 5 contenders.

The Indiana Hoosiers were one of college football's best feel-good stories of 2020. Long considered a cellar dweller of the Big Ten East, coach Tom Allen's Hoosiers battled to a 6-1 conference record and nearly toppled Big Ten giant Ohio State in a close 42-35 loss. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. set the tone on offense with his ability to scramble winning the team's opener against Penn State. Through the air, Penix threw 14 touchdowns against four interceptions, and developed a great connection with returning senior receiver Ty Fryfogle. With Fryfogle and tight end Peyton Hendershot both opting to return, and their understudy Miles Marshall poised for a breakout season, the plethora of riches on offense are evident once again in Bloomington, Indiana. Penix will play against another difficult schedule in 2021, and if his 2020 is any indication he will not step away from the challenge. Penix's Heisman odds can be found at +5000.

Playing second fiddle to current Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne, Lyn-J Dixon carried the ball only 42 times in the 2020 season for Clemson. A 5-foot-10 senior from Butler, Georgia, Dixon has over 1,300 career rushing yards as a Tiger and his yards per carry mark of 6.6 ranks second in school history - only behind Etienne. Dixon has yet to prove that he is able to carry an increased role with the same efficiency, but a +10000 lottery ticket seems worth a gamble. One other factor to monitor with Dixon is the progress of his backup, sophomore Kobe Pace, who reportedly was making up ground on Dixon in spring drills and might supplant the senior at some point, which would undermine his Heisman candidacy.

A talent in college football that cannot be taught is experience. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett opted to return for a fifth season in hopes of building on the progress that he and head coach Pat Narduzzi have made for the program since he came to Pittsburgh by way of Oakhurst, New Jersey, in 2017. With 36 starts, a career 39-to-25 touchdown-to interception ratio, and nearly 8,000 career passing yards, Pickett will etch his name in the Pitt history books as one of the greatest passers the school has seen. Pickett has a knack for late-game heroics, as his five fourth-quarter comebacks are tied for the most comebacks by a Pitt quarterback. With nine of his ten top receivers returning, the weapons are there at his disposal, and with an ACC schedule the quality of opponents will be sufficient for Heisman voters. For Pickett to compete for the Heisman as a longshot, at a +20000 price, he'll need to trim down his interceptions and notch an upset win or two, which he has done in the past.

The Picks

• Michael Pennix Jr. +5000 to win the Heisman
• Kedon Slovis +2500 to win the Heisman
• Kenny Pickett +25000 to win the Heisman

Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.

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