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Austin Swaim's best UFC Shanghai prop picks and bets. Top picks from Austin's betting model for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesar's sportsbooks, including Song Yadong.
The worldwide leader in mixed martial arts returns to the Middle Kingdom for the second time in 2026. This time, it's a stop in Shanghai.
Years ago, I set out to develop a predictive stats model for the UFC. Handicapping a cage fight with numbers seems impossible, but then I realized that, like Mortal Kombat, these are just fighters with stats, and simulating these attributes against each other based on historical trends and averages can let me know who is going to win, by what method, and how long the bout will last.
However, for stability, I model only fights where both fighters have completed at least 30 octagon minutes or 5 UFC bouts. Things get a little wonky if I put tiny samples in here. From a betting perspective, here are my model's best bets and props at UFC Shanghai: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, taking place at the Shanghai Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China, on Saturday. The fights start at 3:00 a.m. EST.
UFC Shanghai Best Bets and Props
Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson
Jenkins to Win (+134; FanDuel)
As of Thursday night, I'm still waiting to bet Jack Jenkins as this line leaks his way. I expected he'd be a bit more popular in one of the card's closest fights.
The mustachioed featherweight from Australia is a spreadsheet darling with elite striking accuracy (61%) and defense (59%). He's mixed it up well, averaging 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, with quality efficiency (60%) on those attempts.
Other than his one UFC loss via submission, I have few questions, and Sean Woodson, a boxer, won't test him there.
Jenkins will have to overcome the always-awkward 10-inch reach deficit that "The Sniper" presents in all areas. Woodson has excellent takedown defense (84%) and length.
But we've seen the American favorite wilt in consecutive fights. He was a bit labored in a barnburner with Fernando Padilla, and he lost via Round 3 (T)KO to Dan Ige after a strong start. Anecdotally, that's one opening for the Aussie, and Jenkins' devastating low kicks are another.
My model has Jenkins as a 51.9% favorite in this fight, and it's a decent split of decision (26.2%), knockout (16.3%), and submission (9.4%) to stick to the moneyline.
Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas
Borjas to Win (+550; Caesar's Sportsbook)
Borjas by Points (+950; FanDuel)
It feels almost too good to be true that Kevin Borjas was given 13-to-1 odds to win a decision at flyweight in his last bout, and it's a longshot again.
決戦目前のフェイスオフ💥
フライ級
鶴屋怜 @ufc_rei 🆚ケヴィン・ボルハス#鶴屋怜 #UFCShanghai
📅8月29日（土）
⏰️プレリム16時｜メインカード19時
📺 @UNEXT_fight & #UFCFightPass pic.twitter.com/hoHIctn8Cw— UFC Japan (@ufc_jp) August 28, 2026
As roughly a +600 underdog, Borjas turned away Andre Lima's submission threat. That's not really new when BJJ specialists Victor Dias and Alessandro Costa were tasked with "El Gallo Negro" assignment, and he still hasn't been submitted in almost seven years.
Yet, Rei Tsuruya is +120 to win by submission here.
The Japanese fighter is coming off a first-round sub of Luis Gurule (1-4 UFC), but Gurule's mediocre takedown D (60%) always opened the door. Borjas has denied 13 of the last 17 takedown attempts he's faced, providing a stiffer test.
At 24, Tsuruya is young and durable, going all 15 minutes with the current champion, Josh Van, two fights ago. But Borjas did the same. I don't think the Peruvian is getting nearly enough credit for stuffing enough takedowns to let his boxing win a tight decision.
That's exactly how he turned away Lima.
Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji by Submission or Points (+145; FanDuel)
Whenever we get a rematch in MMA, most bettors flock to exactly what happened last time. In May, Sumudaerji hurt Alex Perez, and in the process of hunting a knockout, he lost control of his weapons.
An illegal low blow ended the fight in Round 2 of what was trending to be a Perez loss via knockout. Now, "The Tibetan Eagle" is a -225 favorite after closing as a short underdog in the rematch. Sumudaerji's knockout (+210) is his shortest outcome on the board.
I've modeled the Chinese favorite as 65.5% likely to win, so I like him, but my knockout odds (22.8%) are much lower than the implied ones. His 0.58% knockdown rate isn't high, and Perez's last loss by true knockout came in November 2018. A leg injury in 2024 doesn't count.
Perez does have a bad habit of sticking his neck where it doesn't belong, though. He's lost three times via submission in his last seven completed fights.
I'm ahead of the market on Sumudaerji's decision (32.7%) and submission (10.0%) implied odds in the model, and it's plus money to snag both.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong
Yadong +9.5 Point Spread (-110; DraftKings)
This cashed two weeks ago against Umar Nurmagomedov's teammate, Islam Makhachev. I'm running it back against the bantamweight contender.
Song Yadong is too good to be eliminated from winning this fight outright. Yadong has defended 31 of his last 37 takedown attempts faced and made an Olympic wrestler (Henry Cejudo) stop trying.
The idea that Umar Nurmagomedov is going to floor him at will is a little far-fetched when he wasn't efficient on takedown attempt conversions against Merab Dvalishvili (13.3%) or Deiveson Figueiredo (33.3%).
Plus, this fight will take place in Yadong's home country, and we've seen judging at least moderately influenced by the crowd clinging to every big action and punch landed by the hometown "Kung Fu Kid".
For this to cash, Yadong has to win or win one of the five rounds and survive to the end. Well, my model has Umar winning via stoppage just 30.2% of the time.
Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong just faced off for the final time 👀 #UFCShanghai https://t.co/cQxKvgmk4Y pic.twitter.com/b6bEfaeC5N
— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) August 28, 2026
I've got Yadong's outright win percentage at 34.1%, much higher than his implied odds, and will sprinkle moneyline here, too.
