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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 1. Picks with confidence points for Week 1 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. The first weeks are usually a bit easier, but there are some fun games in the real opening week!
(1) Clemson over LSU
If you thought the Lane Kiffin circus was out of control in Knoxville and Oxford, you were sorely mistaken. It has reached a fever pitch in Baton Rouge, and LSU hasn't even taken the field yet.
As if what Kiffin did to Ole Miss wasn't bad enough, he's trying to recruit a roster full of NFL dropouts to go with his $40 million revamp of the roster. Now, the SEC is big mad. One thing you probably shouldn't do is thumb your nose at a conference backed by multimedia behemoth Disney.
SEC school executives are exploring extreme measures to address LSU’s plans to add former pro players, including boycotting competition, sanctioning the school with probation or expulsion and filing a federal legal challenge, sources tell @YahooSports.https://t.co/9dhRairW1I
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) August 31, 2026
We know this is The Mouse's doing since SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey bowed down to a Louisiana district court no more than 24 hours ago. Kiffin didn't just bite the hand that has fed him. He ripped it off and is trying to beat the person with it.
This is going to lead to a whole lot of roster questions for LSU, not to mention this kind of distraction usually isn't good. Especially when a team is trying to coagulate and play together when none of them were together last year.
Clemson is LSU's Power 4 alter ego. Dabo Swinney hates the portal. He proves it by getting very few players from there. Not only that, but Swinney managed to keep a large percentage of his players in Clemson uniforms, even when they are not assured a starting spot.
Such is the case of 2026 QB Christopher Vizzina. Vizzina is a career backup at Clemson, starting just one game in three years. He stayed at Clemson despite other offers.
Dabo is believing in QB Christopher Vizzina to lead Clemson to a Week 1 win over LSU...
He's a classic pocket passer that has made one start in 3 years behind Cade Klubnik. Not a very mobile guy but serviceable.
Gonna be in for a mean test against a LSU secondary with multiple… pic.twitter.com/cUmZyKuLAI
— Wild Card Sports (@wildcardnet) August 31, 2026
It appears that he has held off heralded freshman Tait Reynolds. Vizzina has taken almost all of the reps with the first-team offense in camp. While Vizzina is unproven, he knows the system.
Clemson's offense also returns its leading receivers, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore. Big-time freshman recruit Naeem Burroughs will start in the slot. Gideon Davidson will take over at RB for Clemson. He ran for 260 yards as a true freshman last year.
Add in the Lane Circus and the Clemson continuity, and this is a game Clemson can win. Everyone outside the state of Louisiana is clamoring for a Clemson win. LSU is being picked at 93%, so I'll take my chances to pick up a point.
(2) California over UCLA
When it comes down to it, I trust Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele more than Nico Iamaleava. I understand that Bob Chesney brings a winning culture to a program that desperately needs it, but Tosh Lupoi could do the same at Cal.
Cal added RB Adam Mohammed from Washington and WRs Ian Strong from Rutgers and Chase Hendricks from Ohio. Those of you who watched mid-week MACtion last year should be very familiar with Hendricks.
This is another spot where the public is heavier on the more well-known team. Pick'em pickers are 65% on UCLA. Cal has better than a puncher's chance at a win, especially at home.
(3) Hawaii over UNLV
This is why it's important to pay attention to Week 0 games. Hawaii hung around with a solid Stanford team. UNLV lost at home to Memphis.
Memphis is going to be one of the better non-Power 4 teams this year, but the defensive line dominated UNLV's offensive line. Hawaii didn't get much push against Stanford, but it got enough to make me think this is a winnable game.
Hawaii currently +3 vs UNLV this Saturday night
Since Timmy Chang became the 'Bows head coach in 2022...
Hawaii is 21-6-1 ATS at home & 13-5 ATS as a home underdog
H/T @TeamRankings
— Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) August 31, 2026
On top of that, Hawaii is usually good at home. The Warriors are only being picked at 16%. This is a great spot to get a leg up on the field. It's only Week 1, but it matters.
(4) Duke over Tulane
The public is very heavy on Duke (96%), but this one feels like a trap to me. Duke lost QB Darian Mensah and top WR Cooper Barkate to Miami. Nate Sheppard returns, and San Jose State transfer Walker Eget is a solid quarterback.
Tulane also lost a lot on offense, but much of the defense that was a top unit in the American Conference last year is still there. I'm still taking Duke, but I wouldn't be shocked if Tulane pulls the upset. The only reason that I'm not picking it is that I'm not sold on Zeon Chriss-Gremillion at QB for the Wave.
(5) Colorado State over Wyoming
There's nothing quite like a rivalry in Week 1. This is the longest continuous rivalry west of the Mississippi River. The teams began playing in 1899 and have played every year since 1946. This game has only been played 12 times in September. The Rams have won nine of those 12 games.
Members of the ROTC team of each school run the game ball to the next location. The ball is handed off to the other ROTC squad at the Colorado/Wyoming state line.
The longest continuous rivalry West of The Mississippi “THE BORDER WAR” Colorado State VS #Wyoming it’s much more than a college football game! Doesn’t matter if both teams are 0-12, 12-0, sunny, or snowing both fanbases will show out! pic.twitter.com/5JIUnNewww
— The cfb lliason (@realfbllliason) October 23, 2025
The winner of this game takes home the Bronze Boot Trophy, which is an actual boot worn in the Vietnam War by Captain Dan Romero, who was the Army ROTC instructor at Colorado State from 1967 to 1969. The trophy is guarded by the possessing school's ROTC unit on the sidelines during the game.
Wyoming has dominated the series lately, winning eight of the last 10 games. Colorado State paid Jim Mora a lot of money to come west, and he brought some of his UConn players with him. Oklahoma State transfer Hauss Hejny has been good when he has been healthy, which is not much.
There's a lot more potential for Colorado State than Wyoming. The public is also heavy on the Rams (85%), but rivalry games can get weird. I may move this one down.
(6) Mississippi over Louisville
Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy return from a top-5 offense nationally last year. Louisville is breaking in Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz at quarterback. He almost beat out Kyle McCord in 2024 and Julian Sayin last year.
These teams are meeting in the middle at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, but it won't matter. Ole Miss is a ways ahead of the Louisville program right now.
(7) Auburn over Baylor
How absurd is this? It's Byrum Brown vs. DJ Lagway, volume 2. The difference is that neither one of them is at the same school as when they met for the first time last year.
Lagway would rather forget that first game. He did throw for 222 yards, but only had one touchdown and one interception. Brown threw for 263 yards and a touchdown, and led South Florida with 66 rushing yards en route to the win.
Brown and his entire offense moved north to Auburn, Alabama. Lagway headed west to Waco with no one he is familiar with, and arguably a worse team behind him. It looks like Brown is winning the second contest as well.
(8) Western Kentucky over Nevada
Carter Jones looked decent as a true freshman last year at Nevada, but that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. The QB play was awful for most of the season.
The Pack has to go against one of the best offenses outside of the Power 4 (since the P4 poached almost all of the good ones). Rodney Tisdale Jr. took over as the starter for Western Kentucky halfway through the season, and the team built around him this year. The same is not true for Nevada.
(9) SMU over Florida State
Florida State's secondary was torn apart by New Mexico State in Week 0. Now, it has to face Kevin Jennings as a third-year starter at SMU. The Mustangs have one of the best offenses in the conference outside of Miami.
Florida State still can't afford to fire Mike Norvell, but things could get interesting if the SEC is actually serious about kicking LSU out (it won't happen). FSU wants out of the ACC bad enough to consider burying itself under a mountain of debt to make a move for the future.
(10) Cincinnati over Boston College
Georgia Southern transfer JC French IV might be a better passer than Brendan Sorsby was for the Bearcats. The Eagles are the laughingstock of the ACC, which is saying quite a bit. Don't expect a close game.
