Early Summer ADP Fallers at Running Back

June 29, 2021

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of three running backs from the start of May and assesses their fantasy football value at RB in 2021.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you are already familiar with. Just in case you're not, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three running back fallers.

Running Backs - ADP Fallers

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

The Packers spent a second-round pick on Dillon just a year ago, and all Dillon did for Green Bay in 2020 was rush the ball 46 times for 242 yards (two touchdowns) while catching it a couple of times for 21 receiving yards and no scores. All of that in 11 games played and having to endure the RB3 role in a backfield that featured superstar Aaron Jones (RB5 of 2020 with 258.9 PPR points) and Jamaal Williams (RB38 in 2020 yet bearer of 150 touches in 2020 with Green Bay).

Now, Jamaal Williams is out of Green Bay, and no addition to the backfield was made by the Pack. Too bad for Dillon, though, Aaron Jones re-inked his deal with the Cheese and is expected to have another monster--even more--season in 2021, getting some of Williams' vacated touches to himself. So that's the situation for Dillon, and that's mostly why fantasy GMs are shying off him these days, expecting dud after dud weekly.

Dillon's ADP is stabilizing itself of late and settling in the 115-120 clip of picks, a 10th-rounder in 12-team leagues. Even then, though, I don't think Dillon's upside is any high at all. Dillon is getting off draft boards as the RB41 and projects (via PFF) to finish the year as the RB36. That's good value right there, but I just don't believe he will reach the 137+ PPR-point projection. Williams carried the ball 119 times in 2020 and PFF has Dillon projected to 130+ rushes in 2021. I just can't believe that will happen, and am betting more on Jones bulking up his numbers rather than Dillon eating from Jones' RB1 status. Look for other options.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Not a lot to say about James Robinson's ADP decline, which has been steady since the first night of the past draft when Jacksonville decided to draft RB Travis Etienne with the 25th pick. That, of course, after Robinson came out of nowhere last season, started in Week 1 after Leonard Fournette was traded, and went on to put up a season-long show that saw J-Rob close the year as the RB7 with a 250.4 PPR-point tally over "only" 14 games played for an average of 17.9 FPPG.

Now, Robinson will at least have to fight rookie Etienne for touches in this two-headed backfield, which makes for a very compelling case of fading J-Rob for 2021 fantasy leagues. Robinson's workload was ludicrous last year, racking up 240 carries to go with 60 targets, which only five other rushers did through the 2020 season. Forget about that in 2021, folks. It was fun while it lasted.

The news from Jaguars' summer camp has come loaded with a steady stream of Etienne-related updates. We heard about the rookie taking wideout snaps, then it was reported that he looked better than Robinson in the backfield and that had him as the RB1 entering 2021, then Tim Tebow entered the picture... and that might not sound very related to this until you realize there is an ongoing talk about Tebow playing the Taysom Hill QB/TE/WR/RB role for the Jags, hurting Robinson's upside even more.

PFF is working on the assumption that Etienne will be the RB1 above Robinson. That's why the former is projected to 188+ PPR points next season compared to J-Rob's 97+ PPR points. That's a huge hit. Robinson is getting off draft boards with an ADP of 76 OVR and as the RB29. The projections, though, have him finishing 2021 at a measly RB55. We know Robinson has everything to thrive, just look at the 2020 numbers. But he's super expensive these days and unless his ADP plummets, he's a clear fade in fantasy drafts.

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

The only thing keeping Penny in the fantasy picture is, sadly, Chris Carson's health. And that's not even a very promising thing going his way considering Carson has played 14, 15, and lastly 12 games in the past three seasons for the Seahawks, never missing more than a quarter of the year in games played. Carson re-signed with Seattle this past March for a couple of years, and the Seahawks feel comfortable with their backfield as is--no more additions were made to it.

Penny is entering a contract year after Seattle opted not to execute his fifth-year option earlier this offseason. The problem, though, is that he will have to prove his value playing clearly behind Carson in the pecking order, which is going to be tough for him no matter what. He won't be able to get bonus points from taking on pass-catching duties either as he's yet to get targeted more than 12 times in a single season, profiling more like a pure rusher type of player.

While not a league-winning player, though, PFF still trusts Penny to finish 2021 with 119+ PPR points over the year, but that assumes a 17-games played season from him and a career-high 32 targets going his way for almost 200 yards and a receiving touchdown. Penny will be, in the best-case scenario, a borderline RB4 with odds of not getting even there and finishing as an RB5 next season. Not the worst of last-round fliers with Carson potentially missing time here and there, but nothing more than that. Don't pass on anyone to reach for Penny, it's just not worthy at all.

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