2021 Way Too Early Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 4-7

January 12, 2021

Chris Mangano breaks down the middle rounds RotoBaller's early mock draft for the 2021 fantasy football season and discusses the biggest ADP surprises and values.

The 2020 fantasy football season is barely in the books but that didn’t stop me and some fellow RotoBallers from participating in a way too early 2021 mock draft. 12 of us got together and drafted a 13-round PPR (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX) mock draft for next season. As usual, when drafting this early, there were plenty of surprises, both good and bad. 

This is Part 2 of 3 where I will look over rounds four through seven of the draft. If you missed Part 1 you can go back and read it here.

For a view of the whole draft board on Sleeper, click here.

Early Mock Draft

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Round 4

1. Allen Robinson
2. Mike Evans
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
4. Chris Carson
5. Kareem Hunt
6. D.J. Moore
7. Terry McLaurin
8. Robert Woods
9. Adam Thielen
10. Kenny Golladay
11. Amari Cooper
12. Cooper Kupp

The fourth round was chock-full of wide receiver value. Every receiver drafted in this round could be viewed as an upside WR2 and many have a case for being a WR1. Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, and Adam Theilen all finished inside the top-12 PPR wide receivers in 2020, while Robert Woods and Amari Cooper both finished inside the top-15. 

It’s also interesting to see Clyde Edwards-Helaire fall this far. A first-rounder by late August in 2020, his usage was not what many had hoped for in his rookie year. Still, he has top-10 upside and could be the steal of the draft at this point.

Round 5

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster
3. Kenyan Drake
4. Will Fuller
5. Ronald Jones II
6. Melvin Gordon
7. D.J. Chark
8. Courtland Sutton
9. Tyler Lockett
10. Jerry Jeudy
11. David Johnson
12. Brandon Aiyuk

This round could best be described with one word...uncertainty. A lot of players drafted in this round have ambiguous futures. We saw three veteran running backs, Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake, and David Johnson, who seem to have safe roles now but that could certainly change after the NFL draft or free agency. The same could be said for Ronald Jones II who has youth on his side, but maybe not the confidence of his coaching staff.

The veteran wide receivers drafted in this round aren’t without their risk either. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Will Fuller are both set to be free agents and where they land will have a massive impact on their 2021 value. Courtland Sutton is coming off a season-ending ACL injury, and Tyler Lockett saw his stock drop significantly in 2021.

The round was bookended by two now sophomore wide receivers who I have as potential breakouts in 2021. Both CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk looked every bit the part of elite NFL wide receivers in their rookie years and they should only continue to grow into 2021. Don’t sleep on Jerry Jeudy either; he has all the makings of a second-year breakout and I expect him to have a big 2021 season.

Round 6

1. Odell Beckham Jr.
2. Tee Higgins
3. Chase Claypool
4. James Conner
5. Myles Gaskin
6. Deshaun Watson
7. Brandin Cooks
8. Raheem Mostert
9. Corey Davis
10. Kyler Murray
11. Deebo Samuel
12. Marquise Brown

This round saw the last of the “starting” running backs go off the board as James Conner, Myles Gaskin, and Raheem Mostert enter 2021 as their team's starters. Nevertheless, their roles are anything but safe, and all could change after free agency and the draft.

We also saw some big-name receivers who have lost value in recent years. Odell Beckham Jr. is a stud who is always capable of playing at an elite level but injuries and quarterback play have led to subpar fantasy finishes. Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks and Corey Davis put up solid fantasy numbers in 2020 without the fanfare and could return great value in 2021. 

We also shouldn’t overlook the two now sophomore receivers drafted early in this round. Both Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool had great rookie campaigns, and are poised for massive second-year breakouts.

Lastly, our next two quarterbacks came off the board after Patrick Mahomes in the third. I was a bit surprised Deshaun Watson was the second quarterback taken but he’s proven he is a top-five option no matter who his wide receivers are. While we only saw two quarterbacks get drafted in this round, it precluded what was to come.

Round 7

1. Dak Prescott
2. Damien Harris
3. Mark Andrews
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Josh Allen
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Tyler Boyd
8. DeVante Parker
9. Russell Wilson
10. Robert Tonyan
11. Justin Herbert
12. Jalen Hurts

Whether you agree with the order or not, one thing is clear...waiting on a quarterback will be a dangerous strategy in 2021. I talked about it briefly in my Jalen Hurts write up, but getting a mobile quarterback is extremely important in today’s game. For the first time in a long time, we saw the elite quarterbacks completely separate themselves from the rest. I would not feel confident if I did not come out of my drafts with at least one of these quarterbacks.

We also can’t gloss over the fact that if you missed out on one of the big three tight ends, this is where you should be looking to draft your next tight end. Mark Andrews isn’t quite in the tier of the big three, but he isn’t far behind either. You could make a case for other tight ends ahead of Robert Tonyan, but again the big thing to notice here is that if you waited on the position, you probably don’t want to wait much longer.

So there it is, rounds four through seven of our way too early 2021 mock draft. Who are some players that you think are being drafted too highly? Who are some that aren’t being drafted high enough? And don’t forget to go back and read Part 1 if you missed it, and stay tuned for Part 3 when I cover the rest of the draft. Good luck in 2021!

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