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There used to be a widely-held belief in the fantasy football community that wide receivers broke out in their third pro season. While the third-year breakout does happen, more and more wide receivers are breaking out in their second season. Others, like Justin Jefferson, don't even wait a year.
Finding these wide receivers can potentially win you a fantasy championship because they often don’t get drafted as highly as veteran wide receivers who have produced multiple strong seasons.
So, which wide receivers are poised for a second-year breakout in 2021 and how do we find them? Let's take a look.
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What To Look For In Second-Year Breakouts
First, we want to at least see flashes of what they can do. If we look back to 2020’s biggest second-year breakouts, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, and DK Metcalf, they showed during their rookie seasons the potential to be studs.
Second, we want to avoid wide receivers in bad situations. Think about players like Mecole Hardman stuck behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Or a player like Marquise Brown whose team just doesn’t throw enough to support a high-end fantasy player.
So, which wide receivers fit these criteria for 2021?
Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
There was a lot of hype for Shenault in 2020 but it never really panned out consistently. He did flash his upside at times, however. This may appear to be as bad a situation as you can get on a 1-15 team, but things should be far better in 2021. The Jaguars are likely getting a massive upgrade at quarterback in the draft, presumably with Trevor Lawrence, which is great for the entire passing attack. We saw what rookie quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert did for their respective pass catchers, and there is little reason to think the same won’t happen for the Jaguars.
Another big benefit for Shenault in 2021 will be what looks like a much shallower depth chart at the wide receiver position for the Jaguars. Keelan Cole signed a one year deal in 2020 and likely won’t be back. Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley’s contracts are both up in 2020 as well. That will leave only Shenault, D.J. Chark and fellow rookie Collin Johnson on the depth chart. Shenault ranked second on the Jaguars in receptions with 52 and third in receiving yards with 532. Both of those figures should get big bumps in 2021 with less competition and better quarterback play.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Jeudy was one of my favorite receivers entering the 2020 NFL draft and I loved his landing spot. Unfortunately, Drew Lock regressed as a thrower in 2020 and Jeudy played through injuries for most of the year. Fortunately, however, this sets up a great potential second-year breakout for a player that most fantasy drafters will be low on. And let’s not forget the Broncos should have a healthy Courtland Sutton back in 2021 to help take the pressure off of Jeudy.
Jeudy is an elite route runner and despite a “down” rookie season, he still finished with 47 catches and over 700 yards. In fact, he led the Broncos in targets, air yards, and receiving yards. He was clearly the number one with Sutton out, and should slot in as the 1B to Sutton’s 1A in 2021. Don’t let people tell you that Jeudy wasn’t good in 2020 because as far as rookies go, he was, and 2021 should be even better.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk battled injuries for a portion of the season, but once he got healthy he looked unstoppable. From Week 7 to Week 15 (seven games played), he had at least 73 yards and five receptions in all but one of them. He topped 100 yards twice during that stretch and also had four touchdowns. Head coach Kyle Shanahan found all sorts of creative ways to use him and that should continue into 2021.
The only downside for Aiyuk was the bulk of his production came without Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on the field. If we look at his Week 16 with a healthy Kittle, he had just one catch for 15 yards. That's a very small sample, but it's enough to warrant some caution. Still, it’s hard to envision he won’t be one of the focal points of this offense in 2021 and should return great value for fantasy drafters.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb’s production was derailed by an injury to Dak Prescott but he still posted one of the best rookie seasons of 2020. In the five games Prescott played, Lamb had 29 receptions, 433 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a 16-game pace of 92/1,385/6. And despite playing with the likes of Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, and Garrett Gilbert the rest of the season, he still finished with a very respectable 69 catches, 892 yards and seven touchdowns.
He was the clear number two behind Amari Cooper and is the perfect compliment out of the slot to Cooper on the outside. With a healthy Dak Prescott and a Dallas defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, there is little reason to think Lamb won’t perform even better in 2021. This is a team that will be playing from behind often, which means tons of pass attempts. Dallas threw at the 11th-highest rate in 2020. There will be plenty of opportunity for Lamb in 2021.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Higgins got off to a great start during his rookie campaign, but like Lamb, an injury to Joe Burrow slowed that down. Still, Higgins finished with 67 receptions, 908 yards and six touchdowns. That is very similar to what DK Metcalf did in 2019 (58, 900, 7). While Higgins isn’t quite the physical specimen Metcalf is, he’s not far off at 6’4” and 216 pounds.
Despite Metcalf’s good rookie season, fantasy drafters weren’t completely sold. Let’s not forget Metcalf was a 5th or 6th round pick in most fantasy drafts, and it would not surprise me if that is where Higgins slotted in. And like Metcalf in 2020, Higgins could certainly top 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns and be a league winner for 2021 fantasy drafters. Especially with a fully healthy Burrow back under center.
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