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Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 10 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
Seattle saved our Week 9 in a comeback effort in Buffalo. Washington was in a great spot against an inferior team and totally wet the bed. Meanwhile Miami and Arizona engaged in a shootout that I flat was not expecting. In a bit of a rough patch currently, but still just around even in terms of units for the year. I'm looking to crawl out in Week 10 and get back on the green path!
- Week 9: 1-2 (33%, -1.1u)
- 2020 Season: 13-13-1 (48%, -.14u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Philadelphia Eagles (-3, -175) at New York Giants
O/U: 44.5
These Eagles are finally getting healthy but entering a tough part of their schedule. Carson Wentz is motoring through a very mediocre season, 12 touchdowns and interceptions apiece but his five rushing touchdowns makes things a little better, considering Miles Sanders has missed the last three weeks. Sanders will be back this week, along with Alshon Jeffrey, which should be a huge boost to the offense. They've averaged 342 yards per game over the L3, which is slightly higher than their season average, but they'll most definitely need to chip away at the -0.9 turnover differential if they want to add onto their two-game win streak.
Washington is a through-and-through disaster. Daniel Jones is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL right now and he's running away with it. Despite housing some capable receivers, this offense is one of four in the NFL averaging under 200 passing ypg. In the backfield, it's not looking too good that Devonta Freeman (ankle) ankle will be ready to go, but that might be a benefit to the offense, as Wayne Gallman has found pay dirt in three straight games. Defensively, the Giants are porous in the secondary but their run defense is actually quite solid, ranking 11th in DVOA. They need to put together a complete effort in this NFC East bout.
I'm leaning towards a lower scoring game focused on the ground, although both secondaries do have their issues, which could mean a few big plays. It shouldn't matter as I look for Philly to make a statement off a bye and maintain their lead in the dreadful NFC East.
Pick: Philadelphia -3 (-117, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, -278)
O/U: 45.5
Even at 2-5-1, the Bengals are surprising some people with their recent competitiveness. Losing each of the last three games by a combined nine points, Joe Burrow has been leading the offense to their most consistent production all season, averaging 411 ypg and 30.7 points per game. Oddly enough they've been without their star running back Joe Mixon (foot) and Giovani Bernard hasn't exactly taken over but his 174 yards and three scores were enough to keep the Bengals in every game. In this one, the offense is going to have to bring everything they have against a top defense in the league, because their own defense can't get off the field. Cincy has allowed just 24 ppg this year, but allow 27.8 ppg at home, compared to 20.8 as visitors.
Pittsburgh got a scare to start the week when Vance McDonald tested positive for COVID, which ultimately put Ben Roethlisberger into quarantine as a close contact. The team expects him to be ready for Sunday which is crucial because this team goes as far as Big Ben takes them. Now, the offense hasn't exactly blown the doors off, averaging just 312 ypg in their L3. So while the offense may stall at times, they do average the most third down conversions in the NFL (6.9/game). They'll hope to stall even less, which will revolve around getting James Conner and the run game going, as the unit has struggled recently, averaging just 63 ypg over the L3. Now we get to the real reason the Steelers are 8-0, the defense. Giving up just 20 ppg and 317 ypg, the Steelers allow under three red zone opportunities a game while also leading the NFL with 1.9 takeaways per contest.
The line opened up at 10.5 before Roethlisberger's status was questionable. It's starting to shift back, but still at most sportbooks they're only laying a touchdown (and some less). All reports out of Pittsburgh are that Ben will be ready to go, so I'm riding easy value here before the line gets any higher. To add some substance behind it, the Steelers are 6-2-2 against the spread and 10-0 overall in their L10 versus the Bengals.
Pick: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-114, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-4, -200)
O/U: 50.5
It's tough to get a grip on what the Broncos bring to the table, but following their bye week they've gone 2-2 with wins over the Patriots and Chargers. Drew Lock has been steady but not stellar but the offense has put up at least 350 yards in each of the L3, although last week's performance was heavily weighted towards a 21-point 4th quarter. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay have been quite a tandem, averaging 100 ypg over the L4 but just six touchdowns combined won't be enough to propel this offense to new heights. Jerry Jeudy had a nice breakout last week with 125 yards and a score but there's still not enough weapons for Lock to give this unit the upside they need to compete in the AFC West.
The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the league. Allowing over 6.1 yards per play and 28.6 ppg this season, the Raiders haven't quite adapted to their new surroundings yet allowing 33 ppg and 405 ypg at home. They also have a tough time starting games, allowing 15.9 ppg in the first half compared to just 12.8 in the second.
Denver has had one of the worst first half offenses in football, averaging just 8 ppg in the first 30 minutes of football, and just 5 ppg in the L3, which is just downright pitiful. However, if there's anything we've seen this year, it's that a bad defense is substantially more vulnerable than a bad offense. The Broncos get rid of their first half woes in Sin City.
Pick: Denver First Half Team Total Over 10.5 (-104, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
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