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Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 9 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
Well last week couldn't have been much worse. Weather played a major factor in what I thought was the easiest pick of the week (LV/Cle over). The Rams totally dropped the ball against Miami, getting throttled on the road. Even aside from my bets in the article, it was the worst NFL week I have had in some time. These are one you throw underneath the rug and forget about and move on, which is what we'll do.
- Week 8: 0-3 (0%, -3u)
- 2020 Season: 12-11-1 (50%, +.97u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Seattle Seahawks (-3, -159) at Buffalo Bills
O/U: 55
This Seahawks team is on the path to an NFC Championship bid. With a 6-1 record, and their only loss coming in overtime, Seattle is a team to target every week. Russell Wilson is throwing more than ever and that is a huge factor in their success. Sitting at 26 touchdowns already, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have seven apiece with at least 575 yards. The run game is banged up with Chris Carson (foot) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) missing last week's game and practice this week, but if neither can go, DeeJay Dallas performed quite well in Week 8 with two scores (one rushing, one passing).
The Bills were what some would call a sweetheart team coming into 2020. An offense that is on the verge of peaking with a defense that finished Top 10 in DVOA in 2019. However, things haven't gone to plan on the defensive side. While they're allowing around 25 ppg, they give up over 130 ypg on the ground. The pass defense is better, giving up just around 223 ypg, but facing an offense of the Seahawks caliber will be a test. The Bills' defense rank 22nd in passing DVOA.
The Seahawks have scored 30 or more points in six of their seven games this year. I also understand many love to point out the West coast team traveling East, but Wilson is a combined 22-3 against the AFC and NFC East with 50 touchdowns. The fact that Wilson is throwing more than ever and doesn't seem to be phased by the travel, I love for the Seahawks to air it out against a defense that seems to be down and out through the first half of the year.
Pick: Seattle 28.5 (-109, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-2.5, -130)
O/U: 42.5
Even though the Gitant are 1-7, they somehow aren't the laughing stock of the NFC East (hi, Cowboys). They've been oh so close in the last four though, losing by a combined seven points in those contests. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been abysmal with just seven touchdowns and nine interceptions while averaging just 208 ypg. It's not like he doesn't have talent to throw to, as Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram are more than capable, but the 18.1 ppg speaks that there are bigger issues here. Naturally things are tougher without a player like Saquon Barkley, but with the league's worst offensive line, it's hard to believe one player would make things that much better.
This Washington Football Team is surprisingly the talk of the NFC East, even at 2-5. Can we take them seriously after their 25-3 beatdown of the Cowboys in Week 7. Kyle Allen is doing a fair enough job as the starter, though the offense has averaged just 280 ypg over the last three. They do house Antonio Gibson, who is fresh off his best game on the ground, 128 yards and a score, though he didn't receive a target in the pass game, and he didn't need to. Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas are really the only receivers worth nothing, combining for five scores. Their defense is surprisingly housing the best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 185 ypg which puts them in a great spot against this offense that is almost forced to pass from the get go.
Washington has jumped up in their odds to win the NFC East, up to +375. It says more about the division than the team itself, but Washington really isn't as bad as many had anticipated coming into 2020. Kyle Allen doesn't move the needle in the slightest, but Gibson is a stud in the making, with a solid offensive line, and the defense has some real upside. At home, I like for Washington to build off of their win against Dallas two weeks ago and take care of business against the Giants.
Pick: Washington -2.5 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, -2.5)
O/U: 49
The Dolphins surely shocked Vegas and bettors with the convincing victory over the Rams in Week 8. Tua Tagovailoa didn't perform well in his first NFL start, but he didn't need to thanks to plenty of defense and special teams work. Now, Myles Gaskin is out so the run game will rely upon Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird, which is scary. And until Tua proves that he is ready for the big show, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki aren't enough of an arsenal to scare opposing defenses. Defensively, the Dolphins are in better shape, hosting the best defense in the NFL, in terms of points per game, allowing just 18.6 ppg.
Arizona's offense struggled a bit in the early going, but following their two losses, they've won three straight while averaging 35 ppg and 484 ypg. Now they get a challenge with a sneaky Dolphins Defense but Kyler Murray and co. are more than capable of making things interesting. Kenyan Drake is out, but many think the team is better off with Chase Edmonds anyway; He has tallied almost 400 totals yards and scored three times, including two through the air. DeAndre Hopkins is an absolute target hog and why wouldn’t he be? Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk have been increasingly more involved over their recent winning streak. On the defensive front, Arizona has allowed an average of 400 ypg in the L3, but held opponents to just 18.3 ppg. Stopping the run has been a bit of a problem, but with Miami’s injury riddled backfield, this is a good spot for the Cards.
Arizona has the clear offensive advantage in this one, but Miami’s defense is surprisingly one of the better units in the game right now. Also consider the banged up Dolphins offense with a green quarterback and Arizona doesn’t have to boast a Top 5 defense to cause problems. I just don’t see a ton of points being scored, even with Arizona’s offense in good recent form.
Pick: Under 49 (-110, Foxbet) 1 Unit
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