Stop That Hype Train! Raheem Mostert

August 14, 2020

Craig Rondinone analyzes the hype surrounding San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert and shows why fantasy football players should be wary of drafting him too high in 2020.

Raheem Mostert went from a special teams ace to the top tailback on a Super Bowl team faster than a greyhound chases a mechanical rabbit around a racetrack. Mostert was a journeyman running back who was on five different teams in his first two NFL seasons before cementing his status as a member of the San Francisco 49ers the past few years. He was San Fran’s No. 3 or No. 4 RB entering the 2019 campaign and looked like a lost fantasy cause with Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida ahead of him on the depth chart.

But thanks to the injuries and ineffectiveness of those higher on the pecking order, Mostert gradually gained more touches and total yards late in the season. He scored touchdowns in each of the 49ers’ final six regular-season contests (eight TD in all over that span) and barreled for 220 rushing yards and four scores in their win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. That is why fantasy footballers are more excited about Mostert numbers this upcoming season than Rachael Ray is when she receives a new stand mixer.

Before fantasy players pencil Mostert in for 1,200 rushing yards and a dozen touchdowns, let me play conductor and put the brakes on his hype train. San Fran’s No. 1 RB has several factors working against him that could cause him to be a fantasy flop rather than a fantasy force in 2020.

One-Year Wonder Syndrome

Mostert snuck up on defensive coordinators and front sevens because leading into 2019 he only had 41 rushing attempts over his first four NFL seasons. There was no book on him. There was no tape on him. Then Mostert’s downhill rushing style, coupled with Kyle Shanahan’s run-centric offense, made mincemeat of rushing defenses as soon as he was given his long-awaited opportunity.

Defensive coordinators have had a lot of time on their hands during this pandemic. They have been locked in the basement dungeons of their homes watching countless hours of tape on Mostert and his 49ers. Mostert will not be a surprise anymore. Linemen and linebackers will be keying on him. Defenses might stack the box to stop Mostert and force quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them. Mostert is a known commodity now, and that is not going to make the sledding easier for him this year.

Pass Catching 

Mostert is not the second coming of Roger Craig when it comes to catching passes out of the backfield. The guy only had 14 receptions for a paltry 180 yards during his super season and he only has 20 career catches to his credit in his career. So Mostert is not a three-down back who can horde all the touches and touchdowns for himself, no matter who else is in the backfield mix with him. This definitely dents his fantasy value in all formats, especially in PPR leagues.

No Workhorse History

Mostert’s body should be pretty fresh considering the light amount of carries he has had throughout his NFL career. His running style leads to contact, though, as he is more apt to run through defenders than around them.

Even when Mostert was “the man” at the tail end of last season he was not overwhelmed with a heavy workload. He only had 20 touches in one regular-season game, and during his scintillating six-game stretch that made fantasy players blush, Mostert only averaged 12.8 touches per contest. We have no idea on how well Mostert will hold up if given 15-20 touches per week if that indeed happens. Maybe Mostert breaks down like Pittsburgh’s James Conner did in 2019 after Conner’s breakthrough 2018 campaign. Maybe he shows himself to be a one-year wonder or someone who is much more effective when used sporadically rather than as the cornerstone of the 49ers running attack.

Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon

Coleman is not being paid millions by San Francisco for five touches per game. He had 724 combined yards and seven total touchdowns last year. Coleman has a better chance of being the yin to Mostert’s yang than being out-touched by Mostert 20-5. Coleman’s presence will stunt Mostert’s fantasy value, no doubt.

McKinnon has yet to play a down for the 49ers during the first two years of his four-year contract due to serious knee problems. He too has been paid handsomely, so even if he is a distant third on the depth chart at running back, you have to believe that McKinnon will have an impact on the Forty-Niner's running game at some point in the season. Back in 2017, he accounted for 570 rushing yards and 421 receiving yards as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. When McKinnon is healthy he is a solid multi-purpose option for the Niners, which is not good for Mostert’s fantasy worth.

Let Someone Else Ride the Hype Train

Mostert is a solid between-the-tackles runner who once he squares his shoulders and runs upfield can be a terror for tacklers, especially in Shanahan’s zone-blocking run offense. Coming off the spectacular end of his breakout 2019 season, his fantasy value has never been higher. The issue with Mostert is that he has just as much of a chance of finishing with 500 rushing yards as he does finishing with 1,000 and has just as much of a chance of ending up third on the SF depth chart at RB as he does as being at the top of it. So let’s put the brakes on his hype train, fantasy footballers!

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