RADIO
The birthday narrative never fails anyone, and we saw it again as Baolan outscored everyone else on IG on his birthday and wound up powering the lineups of those who weren't scared of the swap to the top.
The chalk hit massively on Thursday morning, and those who incorporated a bit of risk into their otherwise safe lineups were greatly rewarded. What is to be learned from this? The fear of the swap is to be embraced, at least in tournament lineups, as people tend to overrate it. Bao was 15% owned when the rest of IG and SBG were in the '30s.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Friday, July 17th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Dragon X (-2500) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
Dragon X are massive favorites here, but we did see them take a series off versus KT Rolster. I don't know how much analysis is required for this one, but we're going in anyway. We saw these two teams split in the spring, and this is their first meeting since. So there is a bit of hope for the side of HLE. Just not too much as they are at a significant disadvantage to DRX in every statistical category, except for holding a slight vision advantage. DRX is also in a soft spot in their schedule, and they don't face anyone else in the big four until next week. So we shouldn't catch them napping here. I like Dragon X for the sweep. As always, the only caveat with HLE is that Viper and Lehends can go two verses eight. HLE will be the lowest owned team on the slate coming in at sub-five percent, but other than a hail mary GPP play, I won't have any. I also won't have much DRX as I don't have them projected any higher than DWG, who are cheaper across the board. We'll call them safe and a pay up to be contrarian spot for Friday slate.
Top DRX Plays
- Chovy - MID
- Pyosik - JNG
- Deft - ADC
- Keria - SUP
7:00 AM: Afreeca vs. Damwon Gaming (-450)
AFS and DWG will be the first match of the second round-robin for the LCK teams, and we saw DWG drill AFS just over a week ago with a combined kill score of 45-8 in a decisive sweep. That would stand to reason as DWG is the much better early game team holding the lead in first blood, first turret, gold differential at 15 minutes, and rift herald percentage. All of these are hallmarks of early game dominance, and in fact, we see DWG early game rating via Oracle's Elixir is double that of AFS. Unless Afreeca can find a way to stem their initial bleeding or alter their draft strategies to find a path into the late game where Mystic can take over, they will get swept again by DWG.
Damwon has shown that they have the counter to hyper carry comps by pushing those late-game ADCs out of their comfort zone early with kill pressure counter-picks in the bottom lane. Afreeca hasn't shown much ability to play very well with something like a Kalista as a more early game focused laner for Mystic. I favor DWG here for another sweep on the LCK side on Friday AM. AFS do have some avenues to win, though they are narrow. I expect DWG to be the top owned team on the slate with their upside matching anyone and their prices so reasonable. I think AFS have less upside than HLE, but will likely be the higher leverage play with DWG projecting as higher owned than DRX.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID
- Canyon - JNG
- Beryl - SUP
- Nuguri - TOP
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Rogue Warriors vs. Fun Plus Phoenix (-850)
FPX has seen some struggles lately, and now the suddenly red hot Rogue Warriors come to town to test the reigning champions resolve. Will we see the champs get back on track, or will they continue to flounder. Firstly I think we can consider the strength of opponents for each team in their recent runs of form. FPX, since the switch to patch 10.12, has gone 4-3 in series, but we have seen them play five teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs and a surging VG. RW, in the same period, has played eight series, only winning the last two. Of RW opponents, only three of the eight would currently qualify for the playoffs, although they too have played VG, also losing. So in that, you can see the exaggeration of FPX's demise and the inflation of RW strength.
Statistically speaking, since that 10.12 breakpoint, the teams have been very close early. RW holds a slight lead in first blood, while FPX holds sway in the first turret percentage. FunPlus has the advantage in dragons, barons, gold differential at 15, and vision score, despite RW current hot streak. Funnily enough during that streak, we have seen Wuming become the go-to mid laner for RW's side. Funny because he has played Gallio, Karma, and Renekton, a very Doinbesque champion pool. RW has focused more on getting around the map, especially to the bottom lane to try to get Zwuji going since the change to Wuming. This change to me also favors the FPX, because we have seen they are the masters of this style. Estar, V5, and WE have all tried and failed to out FPX FPX this split and past. Give me FPX in this one in a likely sweep, and they're about to make a playoff push and remind us why they are the reigning champs. FPX should also be one of the highest scorers on the slate, and I want some big stacks from this game. Having spoken on the schedule earlier, FPX is entering a softer section of theirs, but they do face JDG on a quick turnaround on Sunday morning. If you think they might be overlooking everyone's favorite underdog on Friday, you might want to load up on RW as well. Either side of this match could prove to be a slate breaker on Friday.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID
- Tian - JNG
- Lwx - ADC
- Khan - Top
Top RW Plays:
- Haro - JNG
- Zwuji - ADC
- Ley - SUP
7:00 AM: Edward Gaming vs. LGD (-145)
WELP, it's time to grab your lucky coin or your favorite dice or even a magic 8-ball because I feel like any of those have precisely as good a chance to predict the outcome of this one as I do. If anyone of you had EDG the last time out versus RNG, then you know what I'm talking about as they threw early leads in both games. Game two was remarkably tilting as they were up eight kills, 7k gold, and an INFERNAL SOUL, but still found a way to throw that game away. LGD, on the other hand, can't seem to get out of their way with disjointed drafts and even worse play.
Looking at the stats, LGD is better early with superior first turret and gold differential stats. The first blood between the teams has been nearly equal, LGD holding a slight lead in drakes, and EDG in barons, and vision numbers. My initial lean was toward EDG in this one, but I plan on hedging this spot for Friday morning. EDG has a better upside, but LGD carries a discount on Draftkings and is the initial vegas favorites. Both teams have disappointed fantasy owners lately, and it isn't easy to judge the ownership. I believe that both sides may go a bit under-owned as no one wants to touch either side of this coin flip. Watching for ownership clues and line movement may change my opinion before lock, but I think I like EDG by a hair in this one. I feel as a vegas dog but priced as a favorite on DK, they will be the lower owned of the two teams, and that's what I will be looking at tonight.
Top EDG Plays:
- Scout - MID
- Hope - ADC
- XiaoXang - TOP
- Meiko - SUP
Top LGD Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Xiye - MID
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
Summary
- I have FPX and DWG projected very close in terms of kills per game, and among the favorites, they are the highest projections. HLE and RW have some big numbers to go along with long odds (HLE especially). AFS might be the best leverage spot, but I don't think they have a lot of kill upside, and so I think small stacks are likely best there.
- Looking at lineup constructions, 3-2-1 setups have been faring very well over the past few weeks, most often with an ADC at the captain. Even including EDG, who is priced as a fav, you can make some VERY interesting mid captain builds for the slate.
- When speaking on ownership, I'm making my own educated guesses. Just like anyone, I can be off, but factoring that into your tournament decisions is always essential. Remember were also playing this game against the rest of the field not just with the teams in front of us.
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