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The recent four game suspension of Antonio Gates was a surprising blow to the San Diego Chargers as the tight end had been an essential key to the success of the team’s offense for over a decade. Gates’ production over the course of his career has been nothing short of spectacular. He is one of the most prolific tight ends to ever play the game, and the Chargers have long relied on him to be the spark plug for the rest of the offense. The suspension is especially hard for the team because last season Gates seemed to experience a mini resurgence by hauling in 12 touchdowns, tying him with Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas for the most by a tight end. Fantasy owners are left wondering how the suspension will affect Gates’ value for next season as well as what his absence will mean for many of his teammates.
Had Gates been available to play all sixteen games of the upcoming season, he could have reasonably been considered a top five tight end for fantasy owners. After all, Gates was tied for the most receiving touchdowns for all tight ends in the NFL, and his 821 yards were the seventh most by a tight end. But with the suspension, Gates’ value drops tremendously.
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Anyone who drafts Gates must be confident that they can survive without him for the first four games of the season. This might be a conceivable strategy for other positions, but the talent pool for tight ends in the league is very limited. Gates is no longer worth taking too early but there is some potential upside to picking him up in the later rounds. Gates could be a late round steal, but only if you find that you have missed out on drafting a top tier tight end to your team.
When examining how losing Gates might impact other Chargers’ players, the first person that comes to mind is Philip Rivers. Gates has been Rivers’ favorite target for the entirety of his career and it’s reasonable to assume Rivers might be facing a drop in numbers without his long time partner in crime. However, Rivers is an elite quarterback and his career's success cannot merely be attributed to the presence of Gates. Rivers may face a slight drop in his numbers, but his general production should not be affected too much.
In order for Rivers to remain a top quarterback, he will need his teammates to pick up the slack and emerge as consistent receiving options. Who will rise to the occasion? Many think the most obvious candidate is fellow tight end Ladarius Green, who seems to have the potential to be another game changing weapon. Green is gifted with exceptional size and speed, and was seen by many to be a potential sleeper candidate for the 2014 season. However, Green largely disappointed, as he failed to catch a single touchdown all year and fell short of 300 yards receiving. The time has never been better for the young tight end to step up and make a name for himself but he is currently much too unproven to justify even a late round draft pick.
Instead of Green, it seems more likely that Steve Johnson will become the break out receiver for the Chargers this season. Johnson has largely been forgotten around the league and many believe he is a shell of the former player he was years ago in Buffalo, however, Johnson is only 29 which is still young enough to become relevant again. On top of that, his coaches and teammates have repeatedly sung his praises as a player to watch this season. With the Chargers losing Eddie Royal this offseason alongside the temporary loss of Gates, the timing seems perfect for a motivated Johnson to become a favorite receiving target for Rivers. Johnson obviously does not warrant an early to mid-round selection but has the potential to be an absolute steal in the last few rounds.
Losing a player of Gates’ talent level is a huge blow to any team and will obviously have an effect on the entire offense as a result. This could cause many fantasy owners to stay away from all Chargers, but smart owners will know how Gates and his teammates will be affected by the suspension and where they should be taken on draft day.
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