RADIO
Welcome to the Stock Watch
First of all, welcome to the RotoBaller fantasy baseball “Stock Watch”. This will be a recurring weekly column which attempts to gauge the value of certain hitters and pitchers who are trending in the right and wrong direction. The goal is to help you make more informed decisions with your roster.
Thank you in advance for checking out the stock watch, along with all of the other great fantasy baseball content here at RotoBaller (I’m a company man after all). If you have any specific fantasy related questions or players you would like to see featured in this space, send your 140 characters to @GeorgeBissell.
Now lets get down to business. There is plenty of historical evidence to back up the claim that spring training stats ultimately don’t matter for established veterans. They matter for young hitters and pitchers as they battle for starting jobs and playing time at the major league level, which is where this column will focus for the next several weeks. Should you be concerned that Jacoby Ellsbury is 3-for-18 this spring? No, you shouldn’t.
Aside from breakout young hitters, this column is also going to focus on the impact of significant spring training injuries, several of which have already occurred. Baseball is a war of attrition over the course of the season, so my goal is to let you know who is next up, and what you can expect fantasy-wise.
Three Up
Marcus Semien - SS/2B/3B, Oakland Athletics
No player in baseball has turned more heads this spring than the newly acquired Athletics shortstop, who has gone 8-for-16 with a pair of home runs in camp. We always knew Semien could hit and get on base in the minors. He posted a 14% walk rate, along with a .267/.380/.502 line with 15 homers last season in Triple-A. Where he was not so good was at the Major League level. He batted only .234/.300/.372 with six home runs in 255 plate appearances, striking out 27.5% of the time. Semien is one of the more appealing middle infield targets in baseball at the moment and a strong spring training could be the first indication that his fantasy value is going to surge.
Daniel Norris - SP, Toronto Blue Jays
The devastating season-ending knee injury to Marcus Stroman makes it a virtual lock that the van enthusiast/outdoorsman will at least start the regular season in the Blue Jays rotation. He still has issues with his control, but his stuff is electric. The talented southpaw doesn’t have elite fantasy upside, but Toronto is going to need both Norris and Aaron Sanchez to step up right away. Did I mention that Norris lives in a van during the offseason? Not sure if you heard that yet (I’m kidding, of course you have).
Mookie Betts - OF/2B, Boston Red Sox
The sophomore sensation has been leading off all spring. In the wake of Rusney Castillo’s oblique injury, it’s becoming apparent that he will be the Red Sox center fielder on Opening Day. The most likely scenario is that Castillo starts the season in Triple-A \while Betts takes over in center and Shane Victorino mans right field. Betts is a line drive machine, who makes a ton of contact and has one of the safest profiles of any prospect in the game today. He’s a great investment, especially in long-term, dynasty formats.
The bigger issue for the Red Sox here, aside from the fact that Castillo is going to be the International League’s highest paid player, is that Betts is also their only viable leadoff candidate. “I've been hitting there since I was 5,” Betts told MLB.com’s Ian Browne. “I'm kind of used to it. I don't feel any added pressure at all.” Betts is going to be in the lineup, leading off everyday, and the results will be staggering when you consider all of the big names behind him in that order. The time to invest is now.
Three Down
Aaron Sanchez - SP, Toronto Blue Jays
It’s great for Sanchez's long-term value to potentially entrench himself in the Blue Jays rotation in the wake of Stroman’s injury, but its definitely a blow to his immediate fantasy value since he is no longer in the running to close in Toronto. Sanchez’ easiest path to fantasy relevance would have been as a closer, especially since veteran southpaw Brett Cecil is banged up at the moment. The biggest roadblock for Sanchez is his command, he simply walks too many batters to be effective as a starter. He’s worth taking a flier on, but don’t expect a major breakout anytime soon. Patience is a virtue.
Chris Davis - 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
Remember how I said you shouldn’t care about spring training stats for veteran hitters? Well there is an exception to every rule and Davis is the guy who fits that mold this season. After a disastrous campaign last season, which ended with a 25-game suspension and a .196 batting average, this spring matters for Davis. So far, he hasn’t gotten off to a good start, going 2-for-14 (.143) with a home run and six strikeouts. He’s become an enigma at this point and most fantasy owners aren’t sure what to think of him going into their drafts. He’s never going to hit for a high average, but the power is going to be there. So will the strikeouts.
Trevor Bauer - SP, Cleveland Indians
At some point you have to stop making excuses for his lack of command. Just because you put maple syrup on it, doesn’t make it pancakes. Clearly Bauer is one of the most advanced pitchers in baseball with his approach and preparation, but it has yet to translate into tangible results. He has gotten lit up this spring, most notably giving up back-to-back-to-back home runs to the Cubs dynamic trio of Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. The problem for Bauer is that the Indians rotation is stacked. They will find spots for Danny Salazar and T.J. House after the injury to Gavin Floyd, but at this point Josh Tomlin or Zach McAllister might be better options to start the year, while Bauer marinates in Triple-A.
