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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/7/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and others!
Happy Tuesday, RotoBaller family! Studs aplenty will be taking the mound tonight, likely for the last time before the All-Star Break. Thankfully, we don’t have to worry about them because some of the worst pitchers in baseball will also be on the bump tonight, and we can pick on them all we want.
There are decent spots to attack all night, meaning we can take some early wins and roll them into the later games. On the flip side, we can chase some losses (responsibly) as some gas cans take the mound late into the night.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/7/2026)
Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+498 DraftKings)
Slowly but surely, Fernando Tatis Jr. is coming around offensively. While he’s hit just five home runs this season, he’s had six extra-base hits and a .511 SLG over his past 10 games, showing that his power is coming around. Tatis also has multiple hits in three of his past six games, putting up a .307 AVG over that time. Most importantly, he’s crushed Zac Gallen in his career with three home runs and a .640 SLG in 25 at-bats.
For his part, Gallen has been terrible in 2026. He’s given up 17 home runs, 13 of which have come over his past 10 starts. He’s been worse on the road, giving up home runs twice as frequently as he does at home (2.2 HR/9 vs 1.15 HR/9). Gallen has allowed multiple home runs in four of his last seven starts and three of his prior four starts. All four of those starts were on the road, and today’s game is in San Diego.
Only one pitcher on tonight’s slate (Hurston Waldrep) has allowed more power to righties than the .531 SLG that Gallen’s allowed. Petco Park is known as a pitcher’s park, but over the past three years it’s been the tenth best for home runs via park factor, so don’t let the game environment scare you away from Tatis.
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 Bet365)
It’s Tuesday, so you know what that means: Doug is going to be Juan Soto to go yard. One of these days, the Mets are going to not be playing on a Tuesday, or Soto will not be facing a junkballing righty, but tonight is not that night. The Mets play at home tonight against Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals.
Lugo is a righty, and Soto crushes them. His .600 SLG and .300 ISO against right-handed pitching are ridiculous, and he’s hit 14 of his 18 home runs against righties. Soto also has a slightly higher home run rate at home, and his SLG is nearly 200 points higher at Citi Field. He’s faced Lugo 16 times in his career, recording one home run with an .867 OPS.
With the @Mets down to their last out, Juan Soto CRUSHES a go-ahead 3-run homer 😤 pic.twitter.com/dztLmJu5mq
— MLB (@MLB) July 7, 2026
Meanwhile. Lugo has taken a decided downturn since starting the year playing well. Over his first seven starts, he allowed just one home run in over 40 innings of work (0.2 HR/9), compared to his past 10 starts, where he’s surrendered 11 home runs in 52.2 innings (1.9 HR/9).
Lugo allows home runs more frequently on the road (1.6 HR/9 vs 0.8 HR/9 at home), and he’s given up multiple home runs in three of his past five starts. He’s also struggled mightily against left-handed batters, who have a .444 SLG and a 42.9% Hrd% when facing Lugo this season.
