MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 4/29/26)

April 29, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 4/29/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange - see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

Welcome, baseball bettors, to my first comprehensive slate of MLB bets for the 2026 season. If you follow our HR prop picks or strikeout prop bets here at Rotoballer, you know that we are betting on baseball daily. Today's article will break down the MLB slate for Wednesday, April 29, 2026, and I'll offer up a wide variety of bets, including some of my top player prop picks.

If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are also someone who bets on baseball pretty regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-146)

It looks very much like another low-scoring affair is in order today in this series, as each team has a really good righty taking the bump. For Tampa, it's Drew Rasmussen and his 2.45 ERA, while Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams and his 3.28 ERA.

The two teams have combined for just six total runs in the first two games of this series. It's going to be 48 degrees in Cleveland today at game time with the wind blowing in from center field. If that's not a dream matchup for these pitchers, then I am not sure what is!

Furthermore, both lineups have very limited power and a pretty light-hitting top of the lineup. If Rasmussen can avoid a long ball from Jose Ramirez and Williams can successfully navigate Junior Caminero, I think we are in good shape. There's juice here, but that's to be expected when the game total is only 6.5!

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-110)

Another spicy pitching matchup today is Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins facing off against Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers. Glasnow is the guy in top form right now, fresh off a dominant scoreless outing against the Giants that lowered his ERA to 2.45 on the season.

Make it EIGHT scoreless for Tyler Glasnow 💪 https://t.co/DTrejkihxZ pic.twitter.com/BQYRgPO5MU

— MLB (@MLB) April 23, 2026

But Alcantara has been very effective this year, too, showing some signs of regaining his pre-Tommy John, Cy Young-winning form. He has the tougher task here, having to deal with some elite hitters like Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in the bottom of the first. But that's also why we are getting a fair price. I'm willing to roll the dice on Sandy having a clean first, if the Dodgers get to him today, I think it's more likely to come the second or third time through the order.

MLB Full Game Totals

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres OVER 8.5 Total Runs (-128)

It's been a high-scoring series so far, with these teams combining for 16 and 11 runs in the first two games, respectively. I don't think that changes today with Jameson Taillon and Matt Waldron as the starters either.

Moisés Ballesteros crushes a GRAND SLAM 😳 pic.twitter.com/UNX1qOHT0a

— MLB (@MLB) April 28, 2026

The Cubs' offense has been red hot, and Waldron has been hit around to a 12.46 ERA and 2.31 WHIP through his first two starts. I also have little faith in Taillon, who carries a 4.50 ERA and is the definition of mediocre at this stage of his career. Most books have this at 9 right now, so let's take advantage of the extra half run to avoid the possibility of a push.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 Total Runs (-101)

The Brew Crew came through for me last night with 13 runs as I had bet on their team total against Merrill Kelly. They did most of their damage against the bullpen, but their eruption was a good reminder that this offense can still put up crooked numbers even without a lot of star power in their lineup.

Meanwhile, I love this matchup for the Snakes' bats as they get the Brewers' worst starter, Brandon Sproat, as their opponent on the mound. Sproat has a 6.45 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season. He also has an ugly 13% walk rate, which means we could see plenty of Arizona baserunners, either via hit or free pass.

Arizona starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, has a solid ERA of 2.89, but is due for some regression as he has an xERA of 4.94 and a SIERA of 5.02. He's not missing bats (just a 6.4% SwStr%) and has been pretty lucky not to get blown up yet. Tonight just might be the night.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Cade Cavalli OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)

I was a big believer in Cavalli coming into this year. He struggled out of the gate, but has 15 strikeouts over his last two starts and will face a Mets team that is striking out around the league average mark of 22%, but also carries just an 83 wRC+ over the last two weeks vs. RHP. I love the odds and the low number here, which is a theme for today's K prop bets!

Peter Lambert OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+109)

Lambert has been tremendous in the strikeout department in each of his first two starts, whiffing eight hitters in each. The underlying numbers support his high K totals, too, as he's pitched to a 17.7% SwStr% and just a 74.5% Z-Contact%.

He gets the Orioles today, a team that has a 23.7K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks, good for 7th worst in MLB. Perhaps he turns back into Cinderella today, but I am willing to bite on him being actually good now in Houston, especially at plus odds for just five strikeouts.

Drew Rasmussen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)

Rasmussen is not a big-time strikeout pitcher, but is incredibly effective at limiting hard contact with his nasty fastball, sinker, and cutter combo.

Drew Rasmussen, Angry 91mph Cutter. ✂️

7th K pic.twitter.com/W6UOZPYL71

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 12, 2026

He has raised his K% to 26.5% so far this year, and has five or more strikeouts in three of his five starts. With the Guardians bats slumping right now and whiffing 23% of the time against righties, I like his chances, especially as the Cleveland lineup could have all nine hitters batting from the left side, where Rasmussen's splits have been the strongest.

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