Matt Miller's 2026 Genesis Invitational Longshot Bets

February 17, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 Genesis Invitational. PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Wyndham Clark (100-1 FanDuel)

Frankly, I was surprised to see a 100-1 next to Clark’s name on the odds board. Despite the pedestrian start to the season, this may be the best value on the board this week. While I didn’t anticipate turning into a Wyndham Clark truther to begin 2026, the 32-year-old checks a lot of boxes for me at Riviera.

📱 1 week until The Bay Golf Club TGL Season 2 kickoff.

Have you turned on notifications in your @tglgolf app? pic.twitter.com/eA3yz1nm44

— The Bay Golf Club (@TheBayGolf) December 30, 2025

Despite not being the longest course by yardage, Riviera Country Club favors distance off the tee. A combination of having some of the hardest fairways to hit on tour and a low missed fairway penalty makes distance more important than accuracy. When you add the cold and wet weather forecast for the week, distance should prove to be even more important than usual. Clark consistently ranks inside the top 25 for driving distance on the PGA Tour.

The former U.S. Open champion also checks the box of West Coast history. Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open held at LACC, as well as the 2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The U.S. Open he won at Los Angeles Country Club was a George Thomas design, the same architect who designed the course this week at Riviera Country Club.

In addition, there has been a strong correlation between Riviera and Quail Hollow over the years. The courses not only feature similar profiles but also have experienced multiple crossover winners. Outside of his West Coast wins noted above, Clark also won the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship held at Quail Hollow.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Tony Finau (120-1 DraftKings)

Tony Finau has figured some things out on the West Coast swing to begin the season. He has two top-20 finishes in his last three starts. Before this stretch of golf, the 36-year-old hadn’t registered a top-20 finish since May of last year.

There’s a new putter in play for Tony Finau. 👀 With a Scottsdale TEC Ally Blue Onset, Finau was No. 1 in SG: Putting (8.255) at Pebble Beach.
#PlayYourBest | #ScottsdaleTEC pic.twitter.com/JOns7pojE2

— PING GOLF (@PingTour) February 16, 2026

Both top-20 finishes came on California courses featuring poa putting surfaces, similar to what we will see this week at Riviera. In fact, last week at Pebble Beach, Finau ranked first in the field in strokes gained putting, gaining over eight strokes on the greens.

Finau has also turned things around with his approach play, gaining at least one stroke on approach in three of his last four starts. It is his best stretch in this category since June 2025.

Finau has made the cut eight times in 10 starts at this course, including five top-20 finishes. In 2021, he had a heartbreaking playoff loss to Max Homa. While I’m not ready to fully trust Finau just yet, there’s enough there between course history and recent form to warrant consideration at this number.

Ryan Fox (150-1 DraftKings)

Full disclosure, it feels very unlikely that anyone this far down the board is going to win the event this week. Still, Fox has a fairly interesting profile for the course. The New Zealand product has made two starts in the United States so far this season and gained strokes in all four major categories in each.

Fox finished 120^th in strokes gained off the tee on the PGA Tour in 2025, but his problem was mainly accuracy. At a course that favors distance over accuracy, the 39-year-old ranked 41^st in driving distance last year on tour.

Fox finished the season inside the top 50 on tour in driving distance and approach, and finished 51^st on the season in putting in 2025. He was fourth on tour last season on approach from 150-175 yards, a key distance to keep an eye on this week.

I would personally eye Fox in more of a placement capacity than in the outright market to win. Despite having two wins on his resume, I have my doubts about Fox breaking through in this kind of field. Additionally, a debutant has not won this event in 21 years, and this will be the first time Fox has played at this course.

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