RADIO
Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 1 of 2025. His WR lineups advice for Week 1 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Predicting the unpredictable is the name of the game. Week 1 of last season saw Jayden Reed produce 29.1 fantasy points, Allen Lazard hit 20.9, and even Alec Pierce was a top-6 fantasy wide receiver, manufacturing 18.5 fantasy points. On the flip side, Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, and Malik Nabers were all held to under seven fantasy points.
I'm sure there is a "Mayem like us" sponsorship deal that would work well with fantasy football, but I'll focus on that another day. Today, we need to examine the wide receiver landscape to determine, for better or worse, which matchups we should target and which ones we should avoid.
Here are your Week 1 starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Week 1 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Tyreek Hill has been dealing with an oblique injury that has forced him to miss much of training camp.. Usually, a healthy Hill would be in for a good statistical outing to start the season as the Colts allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, 33.31, a season ago.
Waddle is the primary beneficiary of a less than 100% Hill, and by all accounts, Waddle is more than ready to lead the way for fantasy managers.
With Hill sidelined most of camp, Waddle has been Tua Tagovailoa's favourite target, and Waddle would be in line for a serious uptick in target share if Hill were to be limited in any fashion against a Colts secondary that has been completely revamped with the additions of Charvarius Ward, Mekhi Blackmon, and Camryn Bynum.
When I cleaned up the per-route data, Jaylen Waddle had a higher YPRR than Tyreek Hill.
I wonder what might happen if designed target share shifts towards Waddle (one year into WR prime) and away from Hill (two years out of WR prime)https://t.co/0GRy7rUiiu pic.twitter.com/PGTIltGJvf
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 8, 2025
Waddle and Hill are at opposite ends of the wide receiver age cliff. Waddle is entering his prime, while Hill has shown signs of decline in each of the last two seasons. While Hill has the better targets per route run rate, the first down per route run rates are equal, with Waddle edging Hill 2.14 to 1.95 when looking at the yards per route run.
Waddle was likely drafted as your WR3 in fantasy, and with Jonnu Smith moving on this offseason and Hill's uncertainty this week, Waddle could be looking at a target share of 25% or greater.
Matthew Golden- WR Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
It's Week 1 of the NFL season, which means it's the one time a year you can confidently trot Reed out there in your fantasy football lineups. Okay, that is not true at all. In fact, I can not recall a single case in which a wide receiver was productive while dealing with a Jones Fracture. Green Bay's receiving core has taken a hit this offseason, and the last man standing appears to be the rookie, Matthew Golden.
Golden will face a Lions secondary that is not only replacing its defensive coordinator from a season ago but will also be looking for an answer on how to stop the pass. Last season, Detroit allowed a league-worst 3,147 receiving yards to the wide receiver position.
Bottom line, Golden has a real opportunity right now to assert himself as the WR1 in an offense that was eighth in scoring a season ago. Last season, the Packers lost both contests to the Lions, but they did manage to put up 45 points and throw for 479 yards.
We all saw how the Packers deployed Reed to start the 2024 campaign against the Eagles down in Brazil. I'm not saying Golden is in line for 33 rushing yards and 140 receiving yards with a pair of touchdowns, but considering the state of the Packers' playmakers, I'm not saying it can't happen either. Golden is a perfect fit for a Matt LaFleur offense.
Emeka Egbuka - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
It's easy for an analyst to come out here and say, "Start Chase, start CeeDee Lamb, start Puka Nacua." Here at RotoBaller, we aren't built like that. We know you are starting those guys; we also know you are looking for that edge every week, and one player who gives you that edge this week is Emeka Egbuka of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa is already without Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, which moves Egbuka to the front of the line alongside Mike Evans on an offense that was third in passing yards per game (250.4) and fourth in scoring (29.5) just a season ago. In the preseason, we saw the Bucs deploy Egbuka as a slot receiver and on the outside, showing a willingness to use his size and route-running ability to create mismatches all over the field.
No one can match up with Egbuka on the Falcons' sideline, especially in the red zone.
Emeka Egubka with a highlight-reel catch on Teddy Bridgewater's 2nd TD pass of the first quarter 😳
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ihY2W68Ruf
— NFL (@NFL) August 16, 2025
Last season, Atlanta allowed a league-high 22 touchdown receptions to opposing wide receivers, resulting in a fantasy-worst 36.94 fantasy points allowed per game.
Week 1 Sits - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans
Courtland Sutton is coming off a career season in which he caught 81 passes for 1,081 yards, finishing as the WR15 in PPR formats, yet here we are, with Week 1 just days away, and the feeling of inserting Sutton into starting lineups this week is unsettling.
First, the Broncos are playing Tennessee, a team that scored just 18.3 points per contest, 27th-most, while producing the 26th-most total yards a season ago. While the Titans' offense has improved, they will face the best defense in the NFL with a rookie quarterback under center. The Broncos could be looking to run the ball with the lead for most of the second half in this one, and Sutton has himself a relaxing Week 1 kickoff.
Second, while L'Jarius Sneed struggled in coverage last season, Tennessee allowed the fewest receiving yards (2,131), the second-fewest fantasy points (27.82), and the seventh-fewest receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers. For Sutton and fantasy managers, it's a numbers game, and the numbers aren't in the Broncos receivers' favour this week.
Garrett Wilson - WR, New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sometimes, there is no place to hide. Wilson will find out this week that facing the Steelers' secondary will exhaust even the best receivers.
Last season, facing the Steelers meant moving your top pass catchers away from Joey Porter Jr. or targeting the receiver opposite of Porter. This season, teams will not be able to do that as easily. Porter is going to shadow Wilson much of the afternoon. As a rookie, Porter allowed a 47.6% completion rate, and in 2024, he went the entire season without allowing a touchdown.
In 33 career contests, Porter has allowed just one touchdown reception.
In the offseason, the Steelers identified the secondary as an Achilles heel on this defense and added Darius Slay Jr. and Jalen Ramsey to the mix. So even if you were to get Wilson in another matchup, the odds aren't necessarily in his favour.
Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
You don't tug on Superman's cape, and you don't start wide receivers against the Denver Broncos and Patrick Surtain II. I love Ridley as much as the next guy, but this is a terrible matchup.
Last season, the Broncos surrendered 31.01 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, but allowed a league-low 11 touchdown receptions. Surtain is one of the best, if not the best, coverage corners in the game today. Surtain's 0.49 yards allowed in coverage per snap was the second lowest.
Looking back at the game-by-game numbers from Pat Surtain’s DPOY campaign 🏝️
PS2 never allowed more than 45 yards in a game 🔥 https://t.co/U8NF4p9MX7 pic.twitter.com/tMFlWj64VU
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) June 25, 2025
It's not just Surtain you need to worry about; the Broncos had an NFL-best 63 sacks, and their 15 interceptions were the eighth-most in the league. There isn't much room for error or time to operate between Rildey and Cam Ward if they hope to produce for fantasy managers. Better days are ahead; it's best to look elsewhere this week.
Bonus
Justin Jefferson - WR, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
This may seem like a hot take, and fantasy managers can ill afford to bench Jefferson in Week 1, but hear me out. There is an actual data-driven analysis of why fantasy managers should proceed cautiously.
The Chicago Bears yielded the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers last season, allowing just 27.27 per game and conceding 13 receiving touchdowns and 2,401 receiving yards. Jaylon Johnson will once again be tasked with defending Jefferson, who in two contests last season against the Bears had just nine receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown.
Twelve fantasy points per game is reasonable, but we yearn for more from our top 10 fantasy football picks.
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