5 NFL Rookies To Avoid Drafting for 2025 Fantasy Football (Premium Content)

July 24, 2025

Andrew's 5 NFL rookies to avoid in fantasy football dynasty leagues for 2025. His top prospects that are overvalued or could bust in dynasty formats in 2025.

Rookies play a crucial role in fantasy football. In dynasty leagues, they are the draft. In redraft leagues, they can be season-defining selections—whether as late-round gems or key waiver wire additions. Despite the abundance of content available, I still believe the fantasy football market tends to undervalue rookies in redraft formats.

Many drafters are hesitant to invest in players they haven’t seen on the field or don’t know much about. They also often overlook the potential impact of rookies in the latter half of the season. In reality, many rookies deliver their strongest fantasy performances during the playoffs—not in the early weeks of the season.

In this article, I’ll break down five rookie draft avoids. To be clear, “avoid” doesn’t mean you should never draft these players—especially if you’re in multiple leagues. Rather, I believe they’re currently overpriced relative to other options, and the market hype has pushed their ADPs higher than their expected value warrants.

Quinshon Judkins - RB, Cleveland Browns

With a looming suspension, an unsigned contract, and an absolutely brutal start to his NFL journey, Quinshon Judkins is not in a position to help your fantasy team this year. Everyone has a price, but it's difficult for me to suggest taking him in anything other than the deepest of leagues. I was low on Judkins even before his off-field issues came to light. I thought Ohio State teammate TreVeyon Henderson was clearly better and that Judkins lacked special traits to help him pop in the pros.

Judkins produced as a Freshman and Sophomore in the SEC, then helped Ohio State win the National Championship last year. However, his film was not special, especially at Ohio State. For a guy who ran a 4.48 40 at 222, his film showed more of a plodding 2-down player than an explosive future star.

Judkins' 3.04 yards after contact per attempt was one of the worst in his class. For comparison, Henderson's was 4.43, and he's supposed to be less powerful. Judkins wasn't particularly great at breaking tackles. Another concerning aspect of his profile is his lack of receiving upside. Judkins wasn't a bad receiver, but he did not play passing downs as much as Henderson, and his pass blocking grade of just 29.9, according to PFF, was one of the worst in his class. He's a clear avoid for me in all formats.

#Browns RB Quinshon Judkins remains unsigned and won't report to training camp today with the rest of the rookies. He's focusing more on his legal matter right now and so are the #Browns.

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) July 18, 2025

Matthew Golden - WR, Green Bay Packers

This is strictly a player take. From a macro perspective, avoiding a rookie first-round pick on a projected good offense with a young quarterback and bright offensive head coach is usually a bad move. Golden's price is also palatable as a seventh-round pick on Underdog. I don't believe the Packers have a true alpha No. 1 receiver on the roster, but I don't have confidence that Golden will emerge as that player. I'll have exposure in best ball, but he will not be a re-draft target for me.

As an NFL Draft analyst with expertise in wide receiver play, I did not love Golden's film. While there are instances of him running terrific routes and making plays, there were also a bunch of mistakes and inefficient targets down the field. Golden is a burner, but he did not consistently separate on verticals. He's also inconsistent in contested catch situations, and I don't think he has the body to beat press coverage outside.

More worrisome, Golden's analytical profile is not particularly special. According to Player Profiler, his 24.1% dominator ranks in just the 35th percentile while his 18.1% college target share ranks in the 41st percentile. As a Sophomore at Houston, Golden was third on the team in catches behind "Sam Brown Jr." and "Joseph Manjack IV." In his Junior year at Texas, he finished second on the team in targets behind tight end Gunnar Helm.

Golden has WR1 in his range of outcomes, but if I had to predict his career, I would say he underwhelms and settles in as another inconsistent weekly bet in a spread-the-wealth Packer passing attack. Jordan Love loves Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed has real upside, Dontayvion Wicks is a terrific route-runner, and there are two receiving threats at tight end. Only take Golden if he falls.

I really have zero interest in GB receivers, and Golden is no exception to that. The massive glaring weakness to his game really disqualifies him from becoming a great receiver. He fits right in to GB's cluster of mediocre wideouts

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 22, 2025

Jaydon Blue - RB, Dallas Cowboys

Reports have surfaced that Jaydon Blue may be lazy and was a character red flag coming out of the draft. While those reports certainly don't help his draft stock, I was out on him at his price well before those reports came out. Simply put, Blue was overdrafted in the fifth round of the real NFL Draft and is unlikely to be consistent enough to help your fantasy team this year.

Blue never took control of the Texas backfield despite being a highly-touted recruit. He profiles as a role player at 5-9, 196 with a career-high of just 134 rushing attempts. Dallas is thin at running back, but even if Blue does crack the rotation, he's a long shot for goal-line work or high-volume workloads between the tackles. Blue is a good receiver, but it will be tough to trust a receiving specialist in a passing attack that features two target-hogging wide receivers and a decent tight end.

Blue's price on Underdog is dropping, but at an ADP of 151.5, there are much better picks on the board. As a fifth-round pick in the real NFL Draft with an extensive injury history, I much prefer guys like Tyler Allgeier, Dylan Sampson, and Austin Ekeler, who are all going after him.

Coaches with the Cowboys have expressed that Rookie RB Jaydon Blue is “borderline lazy” and that the team is not thrilled with his work habits, per @Marcus_Mosher pic.twitter.com/Ad8zENnt3o

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) July 18, 2025

Jack Bech - WR, Las Vegas Raiders

I love the Raiders' offense this year. With Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator, Geno Smith at quarterback, Ashton Jeanty at running back, and Brock Bowers at tight end - I will be buying this offense. However, I do not view Jack Bech as a priority target in the late rounds as a rookie.

Bech was a fine prospect who earned decent draft capital as a late second-round pick in the real NFL Draft. His transition to the pro game may take some time, as I believe his best fit is at slot and not as an outside receiver. Bech famously produced well alongside Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. at LSU as a freshman, then transferred to TCU, where he became the top target on his offense. Bech has a boxy upper body, and there's a reason two different college staffs preferred to play him inside. Bech will likely struggle against outside pressure at the NFL level.

The Raiders currently have the best one-two slot punch in the league with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers as inside cheat-codes. Bech simply doesn't project for a role until one or both are gone. Michael Mayer will play more traditional tight end, which gives Bowers a ton of snaps detached in the slot. More worrisome for Bech, rookie speedster Dont'e Thornton has stood out more this offseason and is an outside receiver.

Jack Bech Has "Work to Do" in Training Camp to Earn Starting Role https://t.co/DzbpQUvqdg

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) July 23, 2025

Travis Hunter - WR/CB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, I'm fading my top-ranked overall player in the 2025 NFL Draft class and my rookie WR1, in fantasy football this year. Travis Hunter is an unbelievable football player. I wouldn't disagree if you labeled him as generational. He has all the tools to be a terrific wide receiver, including athleticism, body control, and incredible ball skills. However, the market is completely underrating how difficult it will be to produce at a high level on offense while playing on the other side of the ball.

Hunter's price on Underdog was patently absurd when he was going in the fourth round. Now, with his price creeping back towards the sixth round, it's not as outrageous. In redraft leagues, even I'd consider him in the eighth round and beyond. But taking him over guys like Jaylen Waddle, Kenneth Walker, and Calvin Ridley just seems foolish. There are plenty of fifth-round fantasy picks who don't have to tackle Jonathan Taylor and cover Nico Collins.

Hunter weighs 185 pounds. While he was able to play over 100 snaps in certain college games, I think translating that type of workload into the NFL game is unrealistic. The NFL is a different beast, with a more condensed field due to the hash marks and all athletes being bigger, faster, and stronger. Hunter might be "different," but I highly doubt he's different enough to not only do something no NFL player has ever done, but to play both sides of the ball while producing at a high level on offense.

Simply put, a bet on Hunter at his current price is disrespectful to the toll playing NFL cornerback has on the human body. It's not about physically making tackles as much as it is about attrition and the natural physicality of every snap. Hunter may not fit the run much, but if he's playing full-time corner, it just doesn't allow him to put all of his energy into producing on offense.

Others will argue that perhaps Hunter is not that great of a receiver prospect or that Brian Thomas Jr.'s presence as a clear alpha is a negative about his rookie season projection. I'm not as concerned with those totally valid arguments as I am that playing defense is an enormous job and not something I want my 185-pound fifth-round fantasy pick to have to do.

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