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2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and team predictions for the South Region. Read Mike's March Madness picks, sleepers, and busts including teams to target and avoid and how far each team can go.
The stage is set for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. We start with a play-in appetizer, followed by the greatest weekend in sports. 48 games in four days. A field whittled down to 16 teams from 64. There is nothing on earth like it, and we here at RotoBaller will be with you every step of the way.
The top overall seed is in the region. Much like last season, it's in name only. Auburn has a tough region here. Who can topple them to get to San Antonio? Let's take a look!
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the regions.
South Region Favorites
(1) Auburn (28-5)
Auburn was the undisputed best team in the land until they lost three of their last four games. Never has the top overall seed had an end to the season like that and still remained at the top. That's a testament to how far ahead Auburn was of everyone else coming into March.
This team is still led by Johni Broome, but his supporting cast is better this year. Freshman Tahaad Pettiford and glue guys Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones form a formidable core.
(2) Michigan State (27-6)
This was not supposed to be one of Tom Izzo's better teams, but here we are. The Spartans don't have a star or any high-profile transfers, but this team is outstanding on defense and hustle. You may beat the Spartans, but you probably won't outplay them.
(3) Iowa State (24-9)
The Cyclones lost four of the last seven and now will be without Keshon Gilbert for the NCAA Tournament. That didn't hurt their seeding, but maybe it should have. The Cyclones aren't the same team without Gilbert, and it's not fair to pretend they are.
(4) Texas A&M (22-10)
This is another team that limped into the tournament. The Aggies have lost four of the last six games, but one of the wins was over Auburn, so they remain a four-seed. I don't like it, but the committee got a lot of things wrong this year.
This team is dangerous because of Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps. Both are electric scorers, but neither is very consistent. Therein lies the problem for the Aggies.
South Region Fatal Flaws
All teams have one or two things that could keep them from reaching their full potential. Here, we will run the gamut of the main things that will hold teams in this region back.
Auburn: Periods of sloppy play. This was evident down the stretch in losses at home to Alabama and at Texas A&M. Teams have also figured out how to contain Johni Broome, and no one has stepped up to make them consistently pay.
Michigan State: Three-point shooting. The Spartans shot just 30.8 percent from deep, which is bad enough for 332nd in the country. Only St. John's is worse among NCAA Tournament teams.
Iowa State: Turnovers. The Cyclones are -3.4 in turnover differential, which is saying something since this is a strong defensive team. The offense often gets careless.
Texas A&M: Shooting. From every distance, this team shoots poorly. The Aggies are just 69.5 percent from the free-throw line, 31.1 percent from three, and 41.6 percent overall. That's 272nd in free throws, 332nd from three, and 313th overall. Yikes.
Michigan: The Wolverines are a solid defensive team, but they don't force a lot of turnovers. If someone can pace them up, they're in trouble.
Mississippi: Rebounding. Ole Miss is 301st in rebounding at 33.1 per game.
Marquette: This team isn't good at anything. They aren't even average in most categories. If it wasn't for Kam Jones, Marquette would be a .500 team. They should be a much better rebounding (and passing) team than they are.
Louisville: Rim protection. Louisville only averaged 2.9 blocks per game this season.
South Region Ceilings
We know the floor of every team, right? They can all lose in the first round. The top overall seed, Virginia, lost on the first day of the tournament in 2017. In this section, we'll explore the realistic ceiling of every team in the bracket.
Auburn: This might be the Tigers' best shot at a title in team history. This is a good, veteran team. Even though they are on a bit of a slide entering the tournament, they did get some much-needed rest. This is a team capable of winning the whole thing.
Michigan State: This is a rough draw for Michigan State, even though they got a good seed. New Mexico is one of the more dangerous double-digit seeds in this year's bracket. If Michigan State gets out of the first weekend, it's a fairly clear path to the Regional Final. That's a big if.
Iowa State: The loss of Keshon Gilbert significantly weakens this team. I don't see them losing to Lipscomb, but I doubt the Cyclones will make it to the second weekend this year.
Texas A&M: This is a horrible draw for the Aggies. All three teams in the pod are capable of beating them. A trip past the first weekend is very unlikely.
Michigan: Not only is this terrible seeding by the committee, considering Michigan won the Big Ten (18) Tournament, but they drew a really good San Diego team. A Michigan/Yale matchup also has a great storyline. However, if Michigan can get out of the first weekend, they might mess around and make the Final Four.
Mississippi: This is a good pod, as long as they don't run into the Aztecs in the first round. If they do, it's over before it begins. If not, Ole Miss is heading to the second round.
Marquette: The Golden Eagles got a bad matchup in a bad pod. They're toast on day one.
Louisville: The reward for playing Duke tough and beating Clemson twice is an eight-seed? This is ridiculous. Louisville is good but not good enough to beat Auburn.
Creighton: Ryan Kalkbrenner deserved a better draw. Creighton has a good chance because of their size, but they are not a good enough shooting team to slay Auburn.
New Mexico: I love this draw for the Lobos. Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph can neutralize Kam Jones and David Joplin. Michigan State also isn't a prohibitive draw. If the Lobos get hot, they could make the regional final.
North Carolina/San Diego State:
The NCAA Tournament Chair (and UNC Athletic Director) cites Torvik Rankings and WAB as 'new metrics" used to pick this year's teams for the NCAA Tournament right before explaining why UNC was in and #WVU was out.
Torvik
WVU - 34th
UNC - 36thWAB
WVU - 41st
UNC - 42nd https://t.co/LXH77wCFnf— Chris Anderson (@CMAnderson247) March 17, 2025
Chester Frazier seems to know why WVU got snubbed pic.twitter.com/ZcZhnZkxpN
— Hot Rod (@HoldTheRopeRR) March 17, 2025
I thought Virginia getting in last year was bad (it was VERY bad), but this is infinitely worse. Paid affiliates of ANY university should NOT be on the selection committee, period.
Think what Bubba Cunningham just robbed Javon Small of.
That dude played his ass off all year and carried his team to enough W's (according to 111 of 111 bracketologists) to reach a tournament that he has been dreaming of playing in since he was a little kid.
Now his college…
— Gold And Blue Zone (@GoldAndBlueZone) March 16, 2025
#WVU had more quadrant one wins with 6 than North Carolina, Xavier and San Diego State combined (5) but were left out of the field.
— Keenan Cummings (@rivalskeenan) March 16, 2025
West Virginia should be playing the Aztecs and would very likely win. Now, I'm taking the Aztecs to win this and put a scare into Mississippi.
UC San Diego: The Tritons are a hell of a story. This team scores a lot of points (79.8 per game) and are sharpshooters from outside (36.6 percent on nearly 30 three-point attempts per game). This is the anatomy of an upset. I can see the Tritons making it to the second weekend.
Yale: Danny Wolf is gone to Michigan, but the guard triumvirate of John Poulakidas, Bez Mbeng, and Nick Townsend is still going strong. I'm saying Yale beats the Aggies. If San Diego topples Michigan, they likely make the Sweet Sixteen.
Lipscomb: The Bison are a lot like UC San Diego, but they got a bad draw against Iowa State. The Cyclones are going to lose, but I don't think it's here.
Bryant: 15 over 2 upsets have become almost common in the last decade. If you're looking for the one this year, it's here. Bryant scores a ton of points, shoots well, and dominates on the boards. Michigan State is one of the tougher teams for Bryant, but if the Spartans can't score, they could fall.
Alabama State/St. Francis: One of them will have an NCAA Tournament victory before getting stomped by Auburn.
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego
Michigan is 4-5 when their opponent scores 80 points or more. San Diego is a high-scoring team and shoots (and makes) a ton of threes. This could be one of the better games of the first round. I still can't get over how bad Michigan's draw is for winning the Big Ten (18) Tournament.
Bust of the South Region
Iowa State. It's not all the fault of the Cyclones, but this team did not play well with Keshon Gilbert hurt for a couple of weeks in February. It's even worse missing a veteran playmaker come tournament time.
Dark Horse Play
UC San Diego. This is actually a great draw for them. If they can pace up Michigan, Yale, or A&M, they'll win both games. With the way this team shoots from outside, it's not only possible, it's likely.
South Regional Picks
First round: Auburn, Creighton, UC San Diego, Yale, San Diego State, Iowa State, New Mexico, Michigan State
Second round: Auburn, UC San Diego, Iowa State, New Mexico
Regional semifinal: Auburn, New Mexico
Regional champion: Auburn. There are so many badly seeded teams in this bracket that I expect chaos. That said, the teams who could beat Auburn will likely be eliminated by March 22.
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